puka-nacua.jpg
Imagn Images

And then there were eight. Wild Card Weekend was electric, but the NFL's best football usually comes in the divisional round. We've got some doozies on the schedule, with the only game above a 3-point spread coming in a rubber match between two bitter divisional rivals. 

There should be some great football this weekend and we'll get everyone laying it on the line for a chance to host or go to a conference championship game. Let's find some winning bets, including player props and anytime touchdown scorers for every single game on the docket. 

NFL divisional round picks

Bills +1.5 at Broncos

Back the Bills against the spread with the new user offer from DraftKings:

So the thing about the Bills, as we talked about last week, is they're probably -- definitely? -- not as good a football team as the Broncos. They're still very much live to win the Super Bowl, but if Buffalo does it, it's because Josh Allen decided to go full Superman and take over every single game this postseason.

Well, he did that once already, dragging the Bills through to the divisional round with an incredible effort against a really good Jaguars team. I think he's going to do it again, and maybe a few more times over the course of the next couple of weeks. That starts against Denver, an objectively better overall team than the Bills.

The Broncos have a pretty good run game, a strong offensive line, an elite defense and a good young quarterback (sounds familiar!). But what don't they have? Josh Allen. 

It's as simple as that when it comes to betting on the Bills this week. 

49ers vs. Seahawks Under 45.5

Bet on the Under at DraftKings:

This total feels a couple points too high given the circumstances. I would lean to the 49ers but the rest and travel situation for San Francisco is absolutely brutal here and Seattle is coming off a bye week. 

The Seahawks defense is only getting healthier, and we saw what that unit did to Brock Purdy and Co. two weeks ago in San Francisco. 

More importantly, I just think we see both teams try and slow things down and prevent any major mistakes. Both of their meetings this year at 30 points or fewer, because both Kyle Shanahan and Mike Macdonald understand the value of not turning it over in these spots.

So we've got a rubber match where the Niners know their scoring, like it was against Philadelphia last week, will likely be at a premium. The Seahawks have an injured Sam Darnold and won't want to risk him taking too many hits or taking too many shots down the field, thus slowing down the game by running the football and playing conservatively.

Texans +3 vs. Patriots

Back the Texans to cover at DraftKings:

This is a tough game to handicap, man. The line is spot on and the total is super low, but there's a chance for some explosive plays here just because of the skill position players. 

Ultimately, I think the Houston defense is the best in the NFL by a wide margin. While the New England defense is also very good and the offense is better than Houston's, I don't see Drake Maye being able to just do whatever he wants offensively against DeMeco Ryans' unit. 

I think we end up getting a really low-scoring game that becomes a field-position battle. When that's the case, I'm going to take the better defense catching the points. If you want to wait, there's a reasonable chance a +3.5 pops back up again -- obviously that's a much preferred number.

Of all the games, I think this is the toughest one to handicap, because of the potential for turnovers and defensive scores.   

Rams vs. Bears Over 48.5

Take the Over at DraftKings:

Originally I was just going to take the Rams' team total Over 26.5 and call it a day (if you watched our Wednesday show, you know I like the Rams alternate team total Over 34.5 at +196 as well) but this has come down enough where I'm comfortable just taking the straight Over. 

Weather is pushing this number down, obviously, and I understand the concerns. Coldest game in Rams history, blah blah blah. Well the Bears gotta play in that weather too, pal. And I really don't think it being cold is that massive of a deal for these two offenses, each of which features a really exceptional playcaller, a top-shelf quarterback and a plethora of weapons. 

Neither of these teams can ease up off the gas after scoring early. And neither defense is a lockdown unit, even if both have some star players and are capable of generating turnovers. Which, by the way, can lead to points. 

My feel on this game is the Rams come out hot, get a lead and then Caleb Williams and Co. do what they do best and storm back in the second half, which should result in an explosion of points, weather be damned.  

Divisional round NFL player props 

Bo Nix Over 23.5 rushing yards

Take Nix's Over at DraftKings:

We saw Trevor Lawrence do some decent rushing against the Bills last week (six carries for 31 yards) and it could have been even more if the Jaguars were more aggressive about using Lawrence's legs as weapons.

I think the Broncos will absolutely be more aggressive on the ground with Nix in this one -- you simply have to attack the Bills on the ground if you want to beat them. 

That should mean plenty of R.J. Harvey, but I think it will also mean a lot of Nix using his legs, whether it's scrambling or on designed runs. His anytime touchdown number is pretty nice and can be parlayed with Allen (more on that below) if you're feeling frisky.  

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 receptions

Take JSN's Over at DraftKings:

Smith-Njigba tallied six catches on eight targets in the Week 18 matchup of these two teams, despite 1) being the focal point of the passing game and 2) the Seahawks not needing to pass much in a game where the 49ers mustered just 3 points.

I expect a better effort in a more desperate spot from San Francisco here, which should equate to more passing from the Seahawks and Smith-Njigba clearing this number. 

We don't even need a ton of points: when these two teams squared off in Week 1, the final score was 17-13 and Smith-Njigba still wound up with nine catches on 13 targets. I think we get something closer to that type of game in the Divisional Round. 

Drake Maye Over 35.5 rushing yards

Bet on Maye's rushing total at DraftKings:

This number has creeped up pretty decently but I'm still very much fine with it. If you watched the Steelers and Texans play, you saw several opportunities for Aaron Rodgers to take off running and pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. The problem? Rodgers is 42 years old! 

Drake Maye is not 42 and he's a much stronger runner than Rodgers ever was. He's also a smart runner who won't take massive shots. But he's a young quarterback in the biggest game of his career. This is a prime spot for him to activate his legs, especially when his first looks are covered up by the smothering Texans defense.

I also wouldn't be shocked if we saw some more designed runs like we saw from the Patriots last week.  

Colston Loveland Over 57.5 receiving yards

Bet on Loveland hitting his Over at DraftKings:

The best-case scenario for props in this game might be an early Rams touchdown or two, forcing the Bears to become much more pass heavy than maybe they'd like. It's how you beat the Rams, or at least how you score on them, and I fully expect Loveland to be the focal point of that attack.

The rookie tight end has come on like gangbusters over the last few weeks of the regular season and had a monster outing against the Packers. 

Ben Johnson unleashed Sam LaPorta in the playoffs during his rookie season with the Lions and he's doing the same with Loveland here. I also love his anytime TD scorer price as well, with the Rams having given up a lot of red-zone scores to tight ends this year.  

Divisional round anytime touchdown scorers

Josh Allen anytime TD

Back Allen to scramble for six at DraftKings:

The Bills aren't advancing through another round of the postseason without another superhuman effort from Allen, which means this price is just too short given his role near the goal line and his willingness to put everything on the line and scramble. 

We saw against Jacksonville just how willing the Bills are to run Allen when they're down at the end zone against a good defense, because stopping him in short yardage is pretty impossible.

I think we do get the Superman effort and I think we could end up seeing multiple TDs from Allen in this one.    

Zach Charbonnet anytime TD

Bet on Charbonnet to score a touchdown at DraftKings:

There's just no need to get cute in this game, with the Seahawks likely to lean on the run game given that Sam Darnold's dealing with an injury. They're getting Charles Cross back on the offensive line, so they should be able to run even more effectively against San Francisco's soft front. Charbonnet is going to get the rock near the goal line.

He's running so well right now and if Seattle can open the same holes they did against the 49ers two weeks ago, I fully expect Charbonnet to pop off some bigger runs.  

Dalton Schultz anytime TD

Bet on Schultz to score at DraftKings:

You've got to be really careful with betting touchdowns in this game, because there's a decent chance we don't get many of them in this matchup of two top-five defenses. That being said, I'd look at the tight ends if I'm going anywhere and Schultz fits the bill nicely, especially with Nico Collins out. 

Puka Nakua anytime TD

Back Nakua to keep scoring at DraftKings:

Davante Adams is the true red-zone threat for the Rams, but the narrative they won't feed Nakua near the goal line has been obliterated at this point. Nakua has found the end zone in four straight games and has scored multiple times twice over that span.

Nakua has been a touchdown monster when the chips are down and he should be a workhorse against this Bears defense. This is a really nice price given his workload and recent touchdown binge.