NFL divisional round overreactions: Bo Nix injury buries Broncos; Josh Allen fumbles best shot at Super Bowl
Which storylines from Day 1 of the divisional round are valid and which are overblown?
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6 min read
The NFL playoffs are all gas, no breaks. After a chaotic Wild Card Weekend, the divisional round has carried the baton and continued the madness as we inch closer to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California.
Right out of the gate, we were treated to an instant classic between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills, which needed overtime to determine a winner. While Denver was able to outlast Buffalo and send Josh Allen packing, the victory came at a tremendous cost as quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury during overtime. In the later game on Saturday, the Seahawks defense flexed its defensive dominance, keeping the 49ers out of the end zone in a 41-6 thumping.
There's never a dull moment in the NFL, and the storylines are continuing to pour out of these playoff showdowns. But what are we to make of them all? Below, we'll navigate the noise and determine which takeaways from Saturday's matchups are reality and which are mere overreactions.
Broncos' Super Bowl hopes are done after Bo Nix's injury
Overreaction or reality: Reality
After the high of seeing Will Lutz's game-winning field goal secure Denver's place in the AFC Championship, the Broncos hit the lowest of lows in the moments after the overtime victory. Sean Payton announced that Bo Nix suffered a broken bone in his ankle that will require surgery and end his season. The Broncos say that Nix suffered the injury on the second-to-last play of overtime.
Here’s the play on which Broncos coach Sean Payton said QB Bo Nix suffered a broken bone in his ankle that will require surgery and end his season, pressing Jarrett Stidham into the lineup for next week’s AFC Championship Game. pic.twitter.com/2QvotSfmJR
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 18, 2026
Payton told reporters postgame that Jarrett Stidham will get the start in the AFC Championship next week, which will be held in Denver at Mile High. While the Broncos will have home-field advantage and boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, this injury effectively ends any dreams of hoisting a Lombardi Trophy.
Stidham has been with the Broncos since 2023, so he's familiar with Payton's offense, but being thrust into a conference championship is too tall a task. The 29-year-old played one snap this season, taking a knee in October. He hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023. No matter if it's the Houston Texans or New England Patriots who advance to meet them in the AFC Championship, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Stidham helps orchestrate a victory outside of the defense pitching a shutout.
Josh Allen fumbles best chance at winning Super Bowl
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have squandered what will likely be their best opportunity to make and win a Super Bowl. It goes beyond just losing to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round. Buffalo entered the 2025 season as the biggest favorite to win its division, but let go of the rope and saw the Patriots leapfrog them. That forced Allen and Co. to enter the postseason as a wild-card entry and go on the road, creating an even more difficult path.
Of course, this was also a postseason that did not include Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson, three quarterbacks who have been major roadblocks to the Bills in years past. It's hard to imagine that trio not being in the playoffs over the next few years, adding even more hurdles to what is an increasingly competitive conference.
It's fair to wonder if the window has closed for Buffalo before they could even break through.
Josh Allen is solely responsible for the loss to Denver
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Don't get us wrong, Josh Allen is a main culprit as to why Buffalo's season is over. The defending NFL MVP didn't look the part in the loss to Denver, committing four turnovers (two fumbles and two interceptions). His back-to-back fumbles sandwiched in between halftime were egregious, and he seemed to force the ball down the field on his two interceptions, including the pick in overtime that helped set up Denver's game-winning drive.
However, the loss doesn't fall entirely on Allen's shoulders. There's a big-picture problem in Buffalo, as the organization failed to surround its franchise cornerstone with the talent to get over the edge. Allen's two interceptions were on passes to wideouts Brandin Cooks and Curtis Samuel. Cooks arrived as a free-agent signing in late November, while Samuel was activated off of IR just before this contest. That shows just how thin the Bills were at receiver, and it's worth pointing out that lack of firepower in a shootout loss like this.
Throughout the season, it felt like Buffalo was leaning too much on Allen to simply throw on the Superman cape and will them to victory, rather than giving him the tools (weapons) to put them in the best position to succeed. It made him press in this game and burned a golden opportunity at a championship.
Sean McDermott is on the hot seat
Overreaction or reality: Reality
It's a little late in the head coach hiring process with John Harbaugh (Giants) and Kevin Stefanski (Falcons) already being hired, so Sean McDermott's job could be safe for 2026. However, the Bills head coach is likely going to be sitting on one of the hottest seats in the NFL next season, and if Buffalo doesn't meet expectations again, changes could be on the horizon.
McDermott has the second-most wins (98) by a head coach to never make a Super Bowl appearance since 2000. He also has the most playoff wins (8) without a Super Bowl appearance by a head coach all-time.
| Sean McDermott's career as Bills HC | W-L | Playoff result |
|---|---|---|
2017 | 9-7 | Lost Wild Card Weekend |
2018 | 6-10 | Missed |
2019 | 10-6 | Lost Wild Card Weekend |
2020 | 13-3 | Lost AFC Championship |
2021 | 11-6 | Lost Divisional Round |
2022 | 13-3 | Lost Divisional Round |
2023 | 11-6 | Lost Divisional Round |
2024 | 13-4 | Lost AFC Championship |
2025 | 12-5 | Lost Divisional Round |
While this is certainly productive to constantly being in the hunt, it's not maximizing what Buffalo has in Josh Allen during his prime years, which could make the Bills brass consider a change.
Seahawks don't need Sam Darnold to win
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The major story coming into this divisional round matchup was the status of Sam Darnold, who suffered an oblique injury during the week, which left him questionable. Darnold ultimately suited up and started, but he dropped back to pass just 17 times in the blowout win over San Francisco. While Darnold was efficient with those opportunities (12 completions for 124 yards and a touchdown), Seattle didn't ask him to do too much. The defense did most of the heavy lifting, suffocating the Niners to the tune of just six points scored. Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III carried the load offensively with 19 carries for 116 yards and three touchdowns, while adding three catches for 29 yards receiving.
Frankly, the Seahawks didn't need Darnold for this game to win. However, that doesn't mean they won't need him in the NFC Championship or, potentially, Super Bowl LX. As good as this defense has played for Seattle, they're going to call on Darnold to make plays at some point over these next few weeks, so getting him to full health will be imperative.
Injuries were finally too much for the 49ers to overcome
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The 49ers ran into a buzzsaw in the Seahawks in the divisional round, but the blowout loss does highlight how their mountain of injuries came home to roost. They simply couldn't keep up. Without George Kittle on offense, they couldn't find any semblance of a rhythm offensively, and even saw Christian McCaffrey get dinged up in this loss. Defensively, not having the likes of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa plagued them all season, and Seattle had no problem moving the football, particularly on the ground. The Seahawks may have won this game regardless, but had San Francisco been at or close to full strength, I don't think we're looking at this big of a lopsided final score.
