10 crazy NFL offseason predictions, plus five teams that could take a step back and Super Bowl LXI best bets

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

With the Super Bowl now four days behind us, the NFL offseason is officially here. February can be a slow month once the Super Bowl is over, so here's a quick reminder of what's coming up in the NFL:

Tuesday, Feb. 17: Franchise tag window opens
Sunday, Feb. 22: First batch of players report to the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis (full details)

After the combine, we hit free agency, then go full steam into draft season. After that, teams start showing up for OTAs, followed by the schedule release in May. Basically, the next five days will likely be the only slow stretch of the offseason, so make sure to get out and enjoy Valentine's Day -- especially since that won't be possible next year with the Super Bowl being played on Valentine's Day.

Anyway, with the offseason here, we're going to celebrate that fact by making 10 crazy offseason predictions in today's newsletter.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. 10 crazy predictions for the NFL offseason

With the offseason officially here, we thought we'd start things off this week by getting a little crazy -- and no one does crazy better than Jordan Dajani. We had Jordan come up with 10 wild predictions for the NFL offseason.

When you're making crazy predictions, your hit rate is generally going to be low, but if any of these come true, I'll definitely give Jordan a high-five the next time I see him. Let's check out three of his predictions:

1. Bills trade for Justin Jefferson. Joe Brady's name popped up on NFL radars in 2019 when he served as the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach at LSU. The undefeated Tigers had a historic season powered by the play of Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Now he's the head coach of the Bills, and this offseason, Buffalo makes an aggressive move to pair its new coach with a friend -- sending the Vikings a package of picks for Jefferson.

2. George Pickens is traded to the Broncos. Pickens gets hit with the franchise tag as fans lament the reported lack of communication between the two camps. Pickens requests a trade as the public spectacle intensifies. That's when the Broncos swoop in and give the Cowboys a second-round pick for the wideout, then sign Pickens to a multi-year extension that pays him an average of $31 million per year.

3. Travis Kelce retires only to unretire. Kelce is often compared to Rob Gronkowski when pundits debate the best tight ends of the modern era. He'll have another thing in common with Gronk, as Kelce ends up retiring before coming out of retirement in August after a visit to the team facility during training camp. Encouraged by Patrick Mahomes' recovery -- he's on track to start the season opener after tearing his ACL in December -- Kelce opts to play one more season.

If you want to see all 10 of Dajani's crazy predictions, we've got those here.

2. Franchise tag primer: Cowboys will likely use tag

The first big event on the 2026 offseason calendar arrives Tuesday when the franchise tag window opens. From Feb. 17 through March 3, all 32 teams will be allowed to use the franchise tag on exactly one player, but they don't have to use it at all.

CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones decided to take a look at which teams might end up using the tag next week:

• Cowboys: George Pickens. The Cowboys tagging George Pickens has been understood since the final quarter of the regular season. It will cost Dallas about $28 million, and the two sides can work to hammer out a long-term deal. There is always a chance the Cowboys tag Pickens with the intent to trade him, but sources believe he will be playing in Dallas in 2026.
• Colts: Daniel Jones or Alec Pierce. Indy appears destined to issue the tag in the coming weeks. That's because it has two options, and unless it reaches deals with both Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce, it seems obvious the team will use the tag. The priority is Jones, who is recovering from an Achilles injury and would cost about $47 million on the tag. Indy would prefer to sign Jones to an extension, and there is mutual interest in him remaining there, sources say. 

Jones has a notebook of franchise tag information and you can read the full thing here. 

3. Five teams that could take a step back in 2026

The Patriots were one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season, but for every surprise team, there was also a team that took a giant step backward. Last year, one of those teams was the Commanders. After making it to the NFC title game in 2024, Washington didn't even make the playoffs in 2025.

So who could end up being the Commanders of the 2026 season? Garrett Podell came up with five candidates who could take a step back, and we're going to check out his top three.

• Patriots. The Patriots coasted to a 14-3 regular-season record while playing against the easiest strength of schedule -- a .391 opponent winning percentage -- by any team since the 1999 Rams. Eleven of their 17 games came against teams whose head coach is not returning in 2026, which is tied for the most such games in NFL history along with the 1925 Frankford Yellow Jackets, according to CBS Sports Research. That's a nearly unprecedented cakewalk. ... This isn't to say New England will miss the playoffs in 2026, but it could easily see its regular-season record decline by four or five wins while playing a first-place schedule.
• Steelers. The franchise does have the ninth-most projected cap space in the NFL this offseason ($39.31 million), so upgrades could be made. Its ceiling with an aging Aaron Rodgers is likely the 10-7 record from 2025, with a chance to regress should a Rodgers injury occur. If Will Howard or Mason Rudolph is the starting quarterback, a major fall could easily be in order.
• Bears. No team had a more clutch year in close games in the 2025 season than the Bears. Their seven wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter -- including the playoffs -- is an NFL record. ... Regression to the mean hits almost every year for NFL teams that rely on clutch or one-score wins. The 2024 Chiefs were an NFL-record 11-0 in one-score games en route to a third consecutive Super Bowl trip. In 2025, the Chiefs' late-game success completely evaporated as they lost nine of their 10 one-score games. While it sounds wild to say, the 2025 season may have been the Bears' best shot to make a Super Bowl run with Caleb Williams on his rookie contract.

If you're wondering who else could take a step back in 2026, we've got Podell's full list here.

4. One free agent every team should make sure to keep

NFL free agency kicks off March 11, and although that means no free agent can sign with a new team until then, players can sign deals with their current teams right now. Basically, if a team has a player about to hit free agency, it can prevent that from happening by getting an extension done before free agency starts.

With that in mind, Zach Pereles came up with a list of one free agent each team needs to do its best to keep. Let's check out four names on his list:

• Seahawks: RB Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks have several high-level players set to hit free agency. That's the cost of winning a Super Bowl. ... No Super Bowl MVP has played for a different team the following season in over two decades. With Zach Charbonnet coming off a torn ACL, the Seahawks should make Walker, 25, a priority.
• 49ers: K Eddy Piñeiro. It may seem like a cop-out to pick a kicker here, but considering the 49ers' prior struggles at the position under Kyle Shanahan, Eddy Piñeiro was a revelation. Piñeiro went 28 of 29 on field goals, good for an NFL-best 97%.
• Bills: C Connor McGovern. He had a solid 2025, his third season in Buffalo. He offers positional versatility in a pinch -- he played guard in his first season with the Bills -- and has a strong rapport with Josh Allen. He was Pro Football Focus' No. 9-ranked center in 2025.
• Eagles: LB Nakobe Dean. Whether or not they can actually do it, keeping Nakobe Dean makes a world of sense for Philadelphia. Dean only recently turned 25 and has shown tremendous blitzing ability, especially as he emerged as a full-time player over the past two seasons alongside Zack Baun.

Pereles came up with one player for each team, and you can check out his full list here. 

5. Super Bowl LXI odds: Seahawks and Rams on top

Now that Super Bowl LX is over, let's start turning our focus to Super Bowl LXI, which will be the first Super Bowl ever played on Valentine's Day. So yep, you have one year to get things figured out there. You might want to start planning now.

Anyway, in news that won't surprise you, you can already bet on the winner of next year's Super Bowl -- and that's because oddsmakers never sleep.

Let's check out the Super Bowl odds for the 2026 season (for a full list, be sure to click here):

T-1. Seahawks +950 (Bet $100 to win $950)
T-1. Rams +950
3. Bills +1100
T-4. Eagles +1300
T-4. Patriots +1300
T-4. Ravens +1300
T-7. Lions +1400
T-7. Packers +1400
T-9. Chargers +1500
T-9. Chiefs +1500

Worst odds: Cardinals and Dolphins +25000 (Bet $100 to win $25,000)
Breech's best bet: Rams
Best Value: Bengals (+2800)

If I had to make a Super Bowl bet right now, I'd probably put my money on the Rams. Yes, that's boring, but they had one of the best teams in the NFL last year and should be even better in 2026. We already know Matthew Stafford is going to return. Not to mention, they have two first-round picks this year, so they'll be able to fill almost any hole on their roster this offseason.

As for the Bengals, their defense obviously needs a lot of work, but this feels like a make-or-break year for the organization. Zac Taylor is the only returning head coach in the AFC North, so to win the division, the Bengals will just have to beat three teams that all have a new coach. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati will play nine of its 17 games against teams with a new coach. The Bengals are 10-3 in Joe Burrow's last 13 starts, so as long as he stays healthy -- and as long as the defense shows even slight improvement — they should be a Super Bowl contender.

6. Extra points: 49ers likely going to Mexico

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• 49ers expected to play an unprecedented international schedule. The 49ers will serve as the home team for a game in Mexico this year, per ESPN. Normally, that wouldn't necessarily qualify as big news, but they're also playing in Australia, so the 49ers will be doing a lot of traveling this year. With the two trips, the 49ers will become the first team ever to play multiple international games in nonconsecutive weeks. The NFL is playing a total of nine games abroad this year, and so far, we already know the "home" teams for six of those games: Rams (Australia), Saints (Paris), Cowboys (Rio De Janeiro), Commanders (TBD), Lions (TBD) and Falcons (TBD). If the ESPN report is correct, it's looking like the 49ers are the seventh known home team.
• One million people show up for the Seahawks' parade. The Seahawks held their Super Bowl parade Wednesday, and things got kind of rowdy -- but not that rowdy, because the Seattle Public Schools didn't cancel school for the day. Officials decided education was more important than a parade, which I usually would agree with, but in this case, I do not. Sam Darnold was one of several Seahawks players who spoke at the parade, and you can check out his comments here.
• Former Steelers star rips Ben Roethlisberger. Former Steelers star Joey Porter went off on Big Ben this week. "He's not a good teammate," Porter said. "Won a Super Bowl with him, but the person, he's just not a good teammate. Like he knows that, anybody in the Steeler building knows that, but we protected him, because I've only won one Super Bowl, and that was my quarterback. So do I love my quarterback? Yeah, but is he a good person? No." Porter had some pretty interesting comments, and you can check them all out here.
• Former Eagles offensive coordinator lands with Dolphins. Kevin Patullo, who got dumped as the Eagles' offensive coordinator after just one season on the job, is now headed to Miami. Patullo has been hired to serve as the Dolphins' passing game coordinator. He held that same role with the Eagles for four seasons (2021-24), so this might be a job he's better suited for. That said, this won't be an easy job in Miami -- mostly because Patullo doesn't even know who will be throwing the passes this year, with the quarterback spot currently up in the air. The Dolphins could keep Tua Tagovailoa, but it wouldn't be surprising if they decide to move on.
• Cooper Kupp made Super Bowl history and almost no one even noticed. The guys over at Field Gulls pointed out a cool Cooper Kupp stat this week. The Seahawks receiver led Seattle with 61 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, making him the first player in NFL history to lead two different teams in receiving yards in a Super Bowl. Kupp was the Rams' receiving leader in their Super Bowl LVI win over the Bengals, a game where he won Super Bowl MVP.