NFL picks: Bills vs. Broncos SGP for Divisional Round playoff game features Josh Allen, Bo Nix
Here's our same-game parlay for Bills vs. Broncos with a spot in the AFC Championship Game on the line
The Buffalo Bills have their clearest path to a Super Bowl under Josh Allen with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow all missing the postseason, but their next test after surviving a close one against the Jacksonville Jaguars is a battle with the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos on Saturday to kick off the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
The Bills (12-5) got a massive three-touchdown outing from Allen in Jacksonville while the defense did just enough to secure a close win. With a win Saturday, they will visit either the Houston Texans or New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Broncos (14-3) enjoyed a first-round bye after winning the AFC West and securing the No. 1 seed. Denver took advantage of a down year by the Kansas City Chiefs to emerge as the top team in the division and the conference, and a win on Saturday would have the Broncos hosting the AFC title game against either Houston or New England.
We've put together a same-game parlay for Bills vs. Broncos, with odds courtesy of DraftKings and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model. For a full game forecast of Bills vs. Broncos and more NFL player prop recommendations, visit SportsLine.
Bills vs. Broncos same-game parlay picks
- Bills +1.5
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer
- Bo Nix Under 213.5 passing yards
Bills +1.5 vs. Broncos
If this isn't the Bills' year -- even with them sitting as the No. 6 seed in the AFC -- it may never be. No Chiefs, Ravens or Bengals stand in Allen and Co's way, and the Broncos don't stand out as a dominant No. 1 seed like we've seen in previous seasons. Each of Buffalo's last five playoff losses have come to the Chiefs or Bengals, and the Bills dismantled the Broncos in the Wild Card Round last year. Buffalo wins outright in 47% of SportsLine Projection Model simulations, and the model expects a Bills cover with a 24-23 projected final score in Denver's favor.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
The Bills can't make the Super Bowl if Allen isn't driving the bus. He did just that against an elite Jacksonville defense, passing for 273 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 33 yards and two touchdowns. Allen will likely have a harder time through the air this week against this elite Denver secondary, but it's clear that in short-yardage spots that Buffalo will lean on Allen over James Cook, making the star quarterback a good bet to find the end zone with his legs.
Bo Nix Under 213.5 passing yards
Nix started the year cold with three straight Unders on this passing yards line, and he also finished the year with two Unders in a row. He now faces the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL, making this an even tougher task for the young quarterback. The Bills also have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Sean Payton may lean more on the run game in this matchup and use Nix as more of a game manager against Buffalo's tough defense. The model pegs Nix for 187.7 passing yards.
