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The AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game take place on Sunday, and while many will focus their bets on the winner, spreads and totals, NFL player props have become an increasingly popular fork of NFL betting, and running backs often supply some of the most exciting plays in every game. All four teams involved feature at least one playmaking running back, with the AFC matchup of Patriots vs. Broncos featuring a pair of rookie rushers in TreVeyon Henderson and R.J. Harvey, while the NFC matchup has proven, capable backs over multiple seasons in Kyren Williams and Kenneth Walker III for the Rams vs. Seahawks. 

These four running backs will be involved in plenty of NFL player prop bets on Sunday, and the SportsLine model projects value in multiple options for NFL prop betting on running backs. The model sees value in taking Henderson Over 36.5 rushing yards and Williams Over 53.5 rushing yards, while taking Under 83.5 rushing yards for Walker for its NFL Championship Sunday player props at DraftKings. Williams has gone Over this total in eight straight games, including each of the Rams' playoff games and in Week 16 against Seattle.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the AFC and NFC Championship Games on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Three AFC, NFC Championship Game NFL RB prop betting picks for Sunday at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots, Over 36.5 rushing yards
  • Kyren Williams, Rams, Over 53.5 rushing yards
  • Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks, Under 83.5 rushing yards

Combining the model's three Sunday Championship Game running back prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +553 (risk $100 to win $553).

TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots, Over 36.5 rushing yards (-116, DraftKings)

Rhamondre Stevenson has been the more productive and efficient rusher for the Patriots this postseason, rushing for 123 yards on 4.7 yards per carry compared to Henderson's 52 yards on 5.2 yards per rush. However, Stevenson only has five more carries than Henderson, as the Patriots are making it a priority to keep Henderson heavily involved in the offense. And there's good reason for that, as the rookie running back led the Patriots in rushing in eight of their final 10 regular-season contests. Henderson, a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, has big-play potential and can go Over this total with simply one or two big rushes. Stevenson has played 29 more snaps than Henderson, but only has five more carries, and Henderson has carried the ball on 41.2% of his snaps this postseason. His lack of production has lowered his over/under to a point where the model sees nice value on the Over, projecting Henderson for 46 rushing yards on Sunday.

Kyren Williams, Rams, Over 53.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)

Williams has gone Over this total in eight straight games, including each of the Rams' two postseason contests. He also went Over it in each matchup against the Seahawks this season, rushing for 91 yards and 70 yards in those contests. Including the playoffs, Williams has rushed for at least 50 yards in 18 of 19 games, while going Over this total in 16 games. The Seahawks allow the fewest yards per rush (3.7) and second-fewest rushing yards per game (92.6), but given that Williams is 2-for-2 in going Over this total against Seattle this season and has in 84.2% of games this season, the model views this as significantly too low a number. The model projects Williams for 69 rushing yards on Sunday. 

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks, Under 83.5 rushing yards (-114, DraftKings)

There's no doubt Walker is in line for a heavier workload after Zach Charbonnet's confirmed torn ACL suffered last week. The 49ers couldn't do much to contain Walker last week, as the 25-year-old rushed for 116 yards and three touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. However, the 49ers entered with an injured defense and rank 21st in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.4). The Rams haven't faced the same amount of defensive injuries as San Francisco, and haven't allowed an opposing running back to reach 80 yards in three straight weeks, including each postseason contest. Walker rushed for 100 yards against the Rams in Week 16, but just 67 yards in their first meeting. Including going Over 85.5 rushing yards last week, Walker has only gone Over this total in five of 18 games this season (27.8%). Even with a projected heavier workload, the model has Walker for 79 rushing yards on Sunday.