Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Rams - NFL 2025
Getty Images

To steal a mantra from Mike Vrabel and the New England Patriots: "Big dogs come out in January." 

After a modest regular season, my picks have rounded into form over the playoffs, and I'm coming off a clean sweep (ML and ATS) over the divisional round weekend. We had the matchups dialed up to perfection, especially when it came to Rams-Bears, where we took the points with Chicago, but ultimately had Los Angeles pulling out the win. Thanks to Caleb Williams' ridiculous fourth-quarter touchdown pass to tie it and send the game to overtime, we were on our way to a 4-0 weekend. I also was the lone CBS Sports expert not afraid to lay over a touchdown with Seattle, as I expected the throttling that the Seahawks eventually laid down on the 49ers. 

Unfortunately for me, the only place I can go from here is down, but I'll look to keep the momentum rolling as we now turn our attention to Championship Sunday. Here's who I think advanced to Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 record

Playoffs
ATS: 7-3
ML: 8-2

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 48-42-0
ATS: 118-151-3
ML: 167-104-1

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

This matchup really had the air let out of it in the wake of Bo Nix suffering a season-ending ankle injury just as he fended off the Buffalo Bills to advance to the AFC Championship. With Nix sidelined, that now thrusts Jarrett Stidham into the limelight as Denver's starter with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. This is hardly the position that Sean Payton and the Broncos want to find themselves in, but there are some small glimmers of hope that Stidham may be able to keep them competitive. This game will be played at Mile High, Denver boasts a powerful defense, and the Broncos offensive line gave up just 23 sacks this season (tied for the fewest in the NFL). Moreover, Stidham isn't coming in off the street. He's been with the Broncos and in Payton's system since 2023, and has even started games for the franchise before. 

So, that's the optimistic point of view for Denver. Will Stidham rise to the occasion and pull off what would be a historic upset? I doubt it. One of the underrated developments of these playoffs has been the rise of New England's defense. Once thought to live and die by the performance of Drake Maye, the Patriots have won back-to-back playoff matchups even as their MVP-contending quarterback hasn't played his best wire to wire. That's largely been due to the defense, which is coming off a dominating win over Houston, where it accounted for five turnovers. If the Patriots' defense makes Stidham's head spin even half as much as they C.J. Stroud's, they should punch their ticket to the Super Bowl rather convincingly. Oh, and if you are concerned about New England going on the road, let's factor this in: the Patriots were the only team in the NFL to boast a perfect 8-0 record on the road this season and were also 7-1 ATS in those contests. 

Projected score: Patriots 24, Broncos 17
The pick: Patriots -5.5

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

I get that Sam Darnold doesn't have the best track record going up against Sean McVay and the Rams. In his last three games against Los Angeles, dating to last season when he was with the Minnesota Vikings, Darnold has accounted for three total touchdowns, eight turnovers, and 13 sacks. Just this season alone, Darnold has thrown six interceptions to the Rams. That history will have anyone who is backing Seattle have a little sweat drip down the side of their face, but it's where I am going for this NFC Championship. 

This pick isn't necessarily about Darnold. It's about Seattle's defense, which is coming off a blowout 41-6 win over the 49ers. The Seahawks were the best defense in the NFL this season, allowing the fewest points per game (17.2), the lowest third-down conversion rate (32.05%), and the second fewest yards per play (4.6). They also haven't allowed a touchdown over their last two games, dating to the regular season.

Matthew Stafford did have success against this defense earlier this year, but the veteran quarterback was a bit shaky at times last week against a Chicago defense that isn't in the same stratosphere as Seattle's. Stafford dealt with a solid amount of pressure and was sacked four times on the night. There was also a period against the Bears where he and the Rams punted six times over a seven-drive stretch. Chicago simply didn't take advantage. Seattle can, and will, especially if Kenneth Walker III gets rolling on the ground. 

Projected score: Seahawks 30, Rams 20
The pick: Seahawks -2.5