NFL playoffs picks: Hunter Henry a part of expert's three-leg parlay for conference championship games

The 2026 NFL Playoffs move into Championship weekend with the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams vying for a spot in Super Bowl LX. SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman has lined up a three-leg parlay that spans both games and has included a player prop in his picks. Here's a look at what he's cooked up.

NFL Conference Championships three-leg parlay strategy

We've finally made it to the NFC and AFC Championship games—the showdowns that will decide who gets a shot at the Super Bowl. With just three games left, it feels like the entire season comes down to this weekend. Honestly, I'm still buzzing from last week's 3-0 parlay sweep (and if you were on the Sportsline Discord, you know we cashed in with the Bears plus the points, too). Momentum is definitely on our side, and I'm fired up to break down these matchups.

For the AFC Championship, I see some real opportunities. The matchups and recent performances create some angles that I'm excited about. The NFC game looks a bit tougher to nail down, and it could go either way. Still, I love the challenge, and I'm ready to keep this hot streak rolling as we head into the biggest games of the year. Be sure to grab the alternate lines I've listed.

NFL Championship Games parlay

Denver Broncos +6.5 (alternate line) vs. New England Patriots

Jarrett Stidham's career comes full circle as he faces the Patriots for the first time since being drafted by New England in 2019. Sean Payton's track record with backup quarterbacks is no accident. In 2019, when Drew Brees went down, Payton led the Saints to a flawless 5-0 run with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm—just one of many times he's lived up to that "QB whisperer" reputation. Around the league, Payton's ability to get the best out of his quarterbacks is no secret. That's exactly why I'm siding with Denver in this one.

Let's be real—Stidham's career numbers (78.3 passer rating, 59.4% completion rate) tell you he's a steady backup, not a superstar. Stidham's 2025 preseason was eye-opening. He was nearly flawless, completing 30 of 38 passes for 376 yards, four touchdowns, and posting a ridiculous 143.0 passer rating. Preseason numbers can be misleading but in Payton's system, it's a sign Stidham is comfortable with the playbook and can find his rhythm right away. With Bo Nix out, New England has no clue what to expect from Denver's offense. That surprise factor could really matter.

On the opposing sideline, Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye presents a drastically different volatility profile. Maye threw three touchdowns in the Divisional Round victory over the Texans, including a clutch 32-yard strike to Kayshon Boutte. However, he also committed three turnovers, including two interceptions and a lost fumble. He has never played in Denver and the altitude is real. Historically, Denver has maintained a .700 home winning percentage over a 30-year sample, a distinction that reflects far more than a typical homefield advantage.  

Maye is about to face a Broncos defense that thrives on making life miserable for inexperienced quarterbacks. Denver led the league with 68 sacks in the regular season and consistently smothered opponents at home, ranking fifth in fewest yards allowed per play. Conversely, New England's defense has struggled away from Foxborough against inferior offenses, ranking just 24th in yards per play allowed on the road. Also, the Broncos own a +45 sack differential (ranked first) while the Patriots are ranked 24th (-13). The pressure, deafening crowd, and thin mountain air in Denver create a gauntlet that can rattle even the most composed quarterbacks.

Per R.J. White: Coming into this postseason, home underdogs of four points or more hadn't lost against the spread in the last 50 years—9-0, with six outright wins and three close covers between 1976 and 2020. That trend hasn't missed a beat this year: home dogs in that spot are now a perfect 3-0 ATS this postseason.

Los Angeles Rams +3.5 (alternate line) vs. Seattle Seahawks

My betting model sets this game at Seattle -4 with a total of 47 points. So why am I fading my own numbers? It all comes down to the quarterback position. I'm willing to take the risk to see if Sam Darnold can step up in the biggest game of his career. On the other side, I've already seen Matthew Stafford deliver in this exact situation before. Experience makes a difference, and that's what tips the scales for me here. I love the alternate spread up to the key number of +3.5 because the Rams have covered in eight of their last ten matchups against Seattle—including a spotless 5-0 record as underdogs. That track record makes the alternate line even more appealing in a matchup likely to be decided by which team stays healthier and protects the football.

Seattle enters this game with a 14-3 record, a metric that historically commands respect. However, NFL records are often lagging indicators of future performance, particularly when driven by unsustainable variance in one-score games. The Seahawks' Week 16 victory over the Rams, which secured them the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed, required a 16-point fourth-quarter comeback and a miraculous "Zachwards Pass" two-point conversion. With Zach Charbonnet sidelined with an ACL tear, the burden falls even more heavily on Kenneth Walker, making Seattle's running back depth a true concern.

By contrast, the Rams' 12-5 record masks a team that has actually performed at a higher per-play efficiency. In that same Week 16 loss, the Rams outgained Seattle 581 yards to 415. In predictive analytics, yardage differential and yards per play tell us much more about a team's strength than simply looking at the win-loss record. Bookmakers are giving Seattle credit for the outcome in Week 16, but savvy bettors are focusing on how the Rams actually outgained them by a wide margin.

The belief that Lumen Field is an impregnable fortress for visiting teams, particularly the Rams, doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight games in Seattle. Sean McVay always has his team on the same page and Stafford never seems rattled—even when he's calling plays in the middle of all that Seattle noise. Still, sportsbooks keep giving Seattle a bump for homefield advantage—even though the Rams have proved the crowd noise isn't an issue for them. I'm backing the Rams in this spot, and I feel great about grabbing the extra cushion at +3.5.

Hunter Henry Over 42.5 receiving yards

With Stefon Diggs expected to be blanketed by Patrick Surtain, Maye's most reliable option could be Hunter Henry. The Broncos' pass defense is tough overall but they've had trouble containing tight ends, especially in the middle of the field, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (59.7) to the position. It's common for young quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends in loud, hostile stadiums, and Henry fits that "safety valve" role perfectly. He's been a steady presence for New England, ranking seventh among tight ends in target share (18.05%) and surpassing this yardage mark in 11 of 18 games this season. Expect Maye to look Henry's way early and often.