When I put together the final NFL Power Rankings, I always like to look back at the Week 1 rankings to see how far off I was in gauging a season.
It provides great laughs, but it also shows how tough it is to predict the NFL season every year. Expected power teams fall off, and we always have surprise playoff teams emerge.
Of my top 10 teams from the Week 1 rankings, six finished in the top 10, led by the New England Patriots, who finish ranked first. They opened in the second spot, with Green Bay first. The Packers finish seventh.
The teams that I had in the top 10 that failed to live up to expectations were the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos.
My biggest miss by far was the Atlanta Falcons. I had them down at No. 28 to start the season, but they finished third. Oops. I had the Dallas Cowboys at No. 13 and the Miami Dolphins at No. 19 and both ended up much better than that.
Another big miss: The Jacksonville Jaguars. I thought they would win the AFC South, but they finished 3-13 and coach Gus Bradley was fired two weeks ago.
That's what makes the NFL so great, the unpredictability from week to week and especially from year to year.
So go ahead and laugh at my inept Week 1 rankings. I bet yours weren't any better.
| Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -- | 3-12-0 | |
They head into the postseason as the odds-on favorite to win it all. They look to be the class of the AFC by a bunch.
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| 2 | -- | 7-8-0 | |
The key for them will be how well rookie quarterback Dak Prescott plays in the postseason. The pressure is amped up.
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| 3 | -- | 8-7-0 | |
They led the NFL in scoring and Matt Ryan is the MVP. But it's how the defense plays that will dictate whether they make it to the Super Bowl.
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| 4 | -- | 10-5-0 | |
Their offense is as good as any when it's healthy and clicking. They get to avenge a bad loss to the Dolphins this week.
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| 5 | -- | 14-1-0 | |
They won the AFC West and earned a first-round bye. Tyreek Hill gives them a playoff weapon they haven't had in recent years.
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| 6 | 1 | 8-7-0 | |
They open the playoffs with a home game against the Lions. The concern has to be how the defense has played the past two weeks.
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| 7 | 1 | 11-4-0 | |
Aaron Rodgers is playing his best football right now. Is it good enough to carry them to a Super Bowl?
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| 8 | 1 | 2-13-0 | |
With a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Eli Manning and a top defense, they could make a real push for the Lombardi Trophy again.
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| 9 | 3 | 3-12-0 | |
They limped into the playoffs without Derek Carr. They have no chance to make a run now.
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| 10 | -- | 7-8-0 | |
They head to Pittsburgh for a wild-card game. They are playing with house money now.
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| 11 | -- | 13-2-0 | |
They face a tough challenge winning at Seattle this week. They played them tough there in 2015, which has to give them hope.
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| 12 | -- | 9-6-0 | |
With Gary Kubiak retiring, who is next up as coach? Do they bring in a new quarterback?
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| 13 | -- | 10-5-0 | |
It appears that the Ravens are not going to make sweeping changes with their coordinators, but at some point John Harbaugh has to be held accountable for these problems.
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| 14 | -- | 8-7-0 | |
They finished with a winning record and they have a lot to build on for next season. They have a franchise passer.
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| 15 | -- | 9-6-0 | |
They head into the playoffs with major issues at quarterback. Who starts?
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| 16 | -- | 3-12-0 | |
They didn't make the playoffs, but they had a good season. The focus on the offseason has to be getting Marcus Mariota healthy.
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| 17 | -- | 10-5-0 | |
By losing to the Giants, it puts a lot of focus on what to do with Kirk Cousins. Should he get a long-term deal?
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| 18 | -- | 7-8-0 | |
It looks like Chuck Pagano is coming back for another season. Is that a good thing?
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| 19 | -- | 13-2-0 | |
They have to be the one team that can't wait to get past 2016 more than anybody. So many things went wrong.
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| 20 | -- | 12-3-0 | |
It appears Anthony Lynn, the interim coach, might be getting the job. They have to decide what to do at quarterback.
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| 21 | -- | 5-10-0 | |
Is Sean Payton coming back? Or will they trade him to another team?
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| 22 | -- | 7-8-0 | |
They ended the season with two impressive victories, which probably adds to the frustration by not being in the playoffs.
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| 23 | -- | 4-11-0 | |
The Super Bowl hangover was too much to overcome. So much went wrong.
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| 24 | -- | 7-8-0 | |
Marvin Lewis is coming back for one more year. They have to be a playoff team in 2017.
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| 25 | -- | 9-6-0 | |
They will have a new coach with the firing of Mike McCoy. Injuries killed his chances to stay.
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| 26 | -- | 12-3-0 | |
Carson Wentz did some impressive things the final two weeks, which is good for the future.
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| 27 | -- | 4-11-0 | |
Todd Bowles will be back, which is probably the right thing to do. But his team has major issues in a lot of areas -- starting at quarterback.
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| 28 | -- | 9-6-0 | |
The new coach has a lot of work to do to get Jared Goff going. He has looked bad.
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| 29 | -- | 4-11-0 | |
John Fox will be back, but there might be some other changes. They have to find a quarterback.
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| 30 | -- | 3-12-0 | |
They showed some life the final two weeks, which has to excite the new coach taking over.
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| 31 | -- | 6-9-0 | |
They cleaned house with the firing of general manager Trent Baalke and coach Chip Kelly. Who takes over?
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| 32 | -- | 3-12-0 | |
They almost blew the first overall pick by beating the Steelers. Luckily, they didn't.
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