This is Part 6 of NFL Thursday Thoughts, a big-picture series of key topics heading into the season. While quarterbacks and wide receivers spent the offseason raking in huge deals, running backs quietly got nice deals for themselves. Three in particular joined teams with legitimate high hopes. Here's what they bring:
It was the summer of discontent for running backs in 2023. Their market flatlined. None of the three franchise-tagged tailbacks -- Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard -- received long-term deals. Jonathan Taylor got permission to seek a trade amid several issues, including his contract, and he missed the first four games of the season on the PUP list before eventually receiving a three-year, $42 million extension. Taylor, Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler were among the loudest voices advocating for their position to be valued more. They even had a Zoom session.
This summer wasn't perfect, but it was better. Barkley, Jacobs, Henry and D'Andre Swift all received at least $8 million per year from new teams. Christian McCaffrey got a raise, and Rhamondre Stevenson got an extension.
According to Spotrac, the NFL handed out nearly $250 million in total money to running backs this offseason, with over $120 million of that guaranteed. Last year, those numbers were $145 million and $53 million. This year certainly had more top-end talent, but it was at least a step in the right direction for a position group that had felt wronged a year before.
Running backs will never be valued as they'd like to be. It's a brutal position health-wise, and second contracts -- the ones that really make players money -- often come right around the fall-off age (perceived and, in many cases, proven). Five running backs have contracts averaging at least $10 million per year; center (four) is the only major position with fewer.
Still, the top-end players who got paid this offseason will shape their teams' seasons, and three in particular signed with teams expected to compete for playoff spots and even more. Here's how the old faces in new places fit.
Saquon Barkley (Giants to Eagles)
Barkley is a big play waiting to happen, a truly unique talent with the ball in his hands. You know the picture of a Bugatti Veyron sitting in the driveway of a ramshackle mobile home? That's kind of what Barkley felt like on last year's Giants team. He averaged just nine-tenths of a yard per carry before first contact, 36th among 48 qualified runners. Pro Football Focus ranked the Giants' run blocking 30th in the NFL.
But the truly eye-opening number was that 25% of his carries went for zero or negative yards. That was third worst of all qualified runners and by far a career-worst for Barkley. It can be hard to figure out whether that's a feature or a bug. It's probably a bit of both.
Barkley is a big-game hunter. He's looking for a game-breaking run, and he has the talent to make it happen on every play. But it can also lead to some plays that go nowhere, as the 25% figure above represents. Last year, that big-game hunting didn't pay off. Only 6.9% of his carries went for 12+ yards, what's considered an "explosive run." In 2022, with a far more competent offensive environment around him, 17% of his carries went for zero or negative yards, but 9.3% of his carries resulted in explosive runs.
This isn't to say Barkley is completely boom-or-bust. He posted 93 yards over expected last year, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. But there is some more boom and some more bust than there is with other players. The Eagles are more than happy to take that. Swift, last year's starter, ran for over 1,000 yards on 4.6 yards per attempt despite accumulating posting 65 yards under expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
That's where things get exciting. The Eagles were PFF's No. 3 run-blocking unit last year, and only two players -- De'Von Achane and Lamar Jackson -- averaged more yards before contact than Swift did. Anyone could run through the holes Philadelphia's line created, but Barkley can really make the most of them. Opponents already have so much to worry about when defending Philadelphia's attack, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at wide receiver and dual threat Jalen Hurts at quarterback. For the first time in his career, Barkley might not be the defense's biggest focus, and his big-game hunting can really pay off.
Josh Jacobs (Raiders to Packers)
Jacobs went from winning the rushing crown in 2022 to his worst season as a pro in 2023. His yards per carry before and after contact went way down, his explosive play rate fell off a cliff, and he went from one of the league's best yards over expected producers to one of its worst. He avoided just 12% of tackles, worst among 23 players with at least 200 carries. In 2022, only Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb were better.
Was it the holdout? A lingering injury? Jacobs is only 26, so it's hard to believe he has completely lost it. He was a wonderful tackle avoider in 2019 and 2021, and a solid one in 2020. While 2022 was magnificent, it's not like it came completely out of the blue.
Jacobs' lack of big plays was a big issue. In 2022, 12% of his rushes went for 10+ yards. In 2023, that figure was under 4%. Jacobs just couldn't get going.
Enough about the past. Jacobs, on the surface, seems a strong fit in Green Bay, where Matt LaFleur incorporates a bevy of schemes but still favors zone runs. Jacobs averaged 5.3 yards per carry on outside zone runs from 2021-22, and a remarkable 4.0 of them came after first contact. Only two players were better: Elijah Mitchell and Pierce. Jacobs can be a strong fit -- a combination of speed and power -- especially in these areas. The first play below is a perfect example.
Derrick Henry (Titans to Ravens)
Has Henry lost a step? Maybe. Will it matter, especially in the Ravens' excellent rushing offense? Probably not. I'll re-up this from my AFC North preview two weeks ago.
Derrick Henry vs. Gus Edwards, 2023 | Henry (with TEN) | Edwards (with BAL) |
Yds per rush after contact | 3.32 | 2.71 |
Yds per rush in shotgun | 4.9 | 4.4 |
3rd/4th and 1 conversion rate | 89% | 73% |
Tackle avoidance rate | 20% | 13% |
Henry's 3.32 yards per rush after contact were his fewest since 2017. They were also ninth best among 48 qualifying running backs. His tackle-avoidance rate was the second-highest of his career.
This is the big thing. Explosiveness, explosiveness, explosiveness. The Ravens have tried to add thunder to Lamar Jackson's lightning. But what if a player could provide thunder and lightning? Last year, Henry's 0.85 yards per rush attempt before contact was fifth-worst in the NFL. The Titans couldn't get anything going, and they really couldn't get Henry going downhill. It's great that Henry could keep making players miss, but when he was forced to make defensive linemen miss rather than linebackers and defensive backs, he couldn't get rolling.
When Henry did receive good blocking, he was excellent: 8.8 yards per carry when not contacted before 2 yards. Edwards, for comparison, was at 7.2.
For his career, 11.5% of Henry's carries have gone 10+ yards. No Ravens running back has hit that mark in a season (min. 100 carries) since J.K. Dobbins in 2020. In other words, it's been a while since Jackson lined alongside with anything like this in his backfield.
We'll also note that Henry has averaged 5 yards per carry out of shotgun formations over the past two seasons, 11th out of 72 running backs with at least 100 carries, and his 0.09 expected points added per rush out of shotgun is fifth among those 72 running backs. Keeping track of Jackson was already difficult for opposing defenses. Now, one misstep could be the runaway freight train that is Henry plowing through your defense.
More Thursday Thoughts:
Part 1: Can Caleb Williams and the Bears deliver on high expectations?
Part 2: Is this the Cowboys' last run as we know them?
Part 3: How will quarterbacks returning from season-ending injuries fare?
Part 4: What happens in the AFC North, the league's best and most intriguing conference?
Part 5: Is it the new-look Bills' time to break through?