A year ago I used this very space to implore the Falcons to do the right thing and deal Tony Gonzalez to a contender (Seattle wanted him badly). I urged the Giants to take some draft picks for Hakeem Nicks and Justin Tuck, as they would not be contending and were about to lose them anyway. I begged the Titans to take whatever they could get for Kenny Britt and pleaded with the Vikings to take a mid-round pick for Jared Allen and let him move on to greener pastures.
And, well, all of those teams ended up faltering, as expected, and holding on to those veterans (some with bloated salaries) as expected, and those players ended up wrapped up in the compensatory pick equation (for the 2015 draft, however, not 2014) after they invariably signed elsewhere. I would have been out there shopping them tirelessly last October and trying to get the best package possible in return as soon as possible rather than spending so much time telling the media why they wouldn’t or shouldn’t be traded.
That brings us to this season, and another trade deadline looming on Tuesday afternoon, and another set of decisions for teams to make. So I’m here to make it simple for many of them. Sure, parity has run rampant in this league and you can stare at the standings long enough and make yourself believe anything, but the Bucs and Falcons, even in the odious NFC South, are out of it. They are sellers and would be smart to sell and load up on picks for next year.
Redskins, I know you love to spend money, but I’d be looking to trim payroll now and streamline for the future. Raiders and Titans, you know you are dying to save a little coin, so go ahead and do it if at all possible as your product can’t get much worse and some of these replacements might surprise you.
Bears, yeah, this applies to you as well and you might as well start trying to get younger now. Rams, in your division, fuhgeddaboudit. The Jaguars are over even in that division (but I don’t see many trade options there).
So, who precisely would I be dangling? Here’s a team-by-team look.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trading Vincent Jackson would save a little over half of his $10 million salary, and after just signing Gerald McCoy to a massive deal, why not take the savings? Jackson is unlikely to be still getting his $10M annual salary from the Bucs by the time they turn things around, and while you don’t have to make a move and he’s still a quality receiver, this team might as well get as young as possible.
I know they want a second for him but I’d settle for a third. How about the Browns? They have plenty of cap space and imagine if they added Jackson and then get Josh Gordon back from suspension in a few weeks? They’d actually have some legit targets for Brian Hoyer to hit on the outside.
If someone wants to take on Doug Martin and try to revitalize him, let them (Chargers have lost a bunch of running backs; Pats as well) and take a mid-round pick if you can get it since they can’t wait to play Charles Sims when he comes off IR-Designated to Return, anyway. And if anyone wants to eat half of Dashon Goldson’s $6M salary, take anything you can get. Can’t imagine picking up his 2015 roster bonus of $3M. Oh, and I’d give the Bears a call about Josh McCown for bleeps and giggles; he did almost get them to the playoffs a year ago. (OK, even by the standards of this particular column, which is mostly just me noodling, this is beyond a stretch, but I couldn’t help myself and it leads so nicely into the second item if you stick with it).
Jacksonville Jaguars: Defensive end Chris Clemons is kinda exactly what the Seahawks are looking for, isn’t he? To try to boost their sagging front seven and put a charge in the pass rush? And, oh yeah, he spent the last few years there doing just that. His $4.7M in guaranteed money is paid, his base is just $1.47M and he’s set to make $3M per year on the remainder of his deal.
He’s a great vet to have in Jacksonville, but let’s face it, the Jags are going to need a bunch of pass rushers as they try to dig out of a huge hole. There is so much camaraderie and respect between these organizations with coach Gus Bradley leaving Seattle to become head coach of Jacksonville in 2013, Clemons knows Seattle well, is already a fit in that locker room, which has been under scrutiny in recent weeks. So what if he was a cap casualty there just a few months ago? Might be worth it for a Seahawks team in Super Bowl or bust mode.
Oakland Raiders: Under Al Davis, the team would have been shopping any and every veteran making any money at all. And given the fact they are the lone winless team in the NFL, maybe they still should be. The decision to go old and sign a bunch of over-30 guys in free agency looks pretty bad right now, and maybe someone will take on Charles Woodson or Justin Tuck or Matt Schaub (still kinda pricey at over $2M for half a season). I’d certainly be trying to shop them.
But the guy who might have real value is Sebastian Janikowski. He doesn’t have the leg he once did, but if I am the Browns or the Saints, for instance, or the Bengals, I’d be intrigued. All his guaranteed money is paid, he makes $2.7M this season and if a team wants to pay him $3M a year in the future, so be it. Or he could be cut. Smart teams are going very young and very cheap with the kickers and the Raiders aren’t anywhere close to contending for a while. Enough teams that are at least somewhat in the hunt need a kicker that I’d try to get a few bidding and see how high a pick he might fetch.
Atlanta Falcons: Not trading Gonzalez to a winning team last year, while en route to a season that ended up with a 4-12 record and them falling miserably out of contention quickly was criminal (especially when one considers the Seahawks went on to win the Super Bowl and Gonzo could have gone out like Ray Lewis). But I digress.
If it was me, I’d be shopping Roddy White’s contract, but that might be a tough sell. Devin Hester, however, would undoubtedly have demand, and with a $1M base salary and $2.5M next season, he could be more than a rental for a contending team. His work at receiver has been better than ever and a team like Seattle (Paul Richardson now being used in the base offense more), Baltimore (too many fumbles from Jacoby Jones), maybe even New England (used four different kick returners already), could use a spark in the return game. Seattle once dealt for Leon Washington. Hester has Hall of Fame credentials on special teams, hasn’t slowed down much and is as motivated as ever. Seems like the kind of guy Bill Belichick would like, drawn to accomplished veterans. Can change a game in an instant with a kick or punt return. Well worth shopping.
Chicago Bears: Not too many tradeable commodities, and I know Lance Briggs has been hurt, and missed three straight games with a rib injury, but he’ll be back, and by the time he is this defense could be headed to setting some fairly brutal franchise records. Briggs is a free agent at season’s end, re-signing him wouldn’t make much sense for a lot of reasons, and, well, his old boss Rod Marinelli is doing wonders with that Dallas defense, but few know how to play outside linebacker in his system the way Briggs does and for a Dallas defense short on individual talent in its front seven, and one many believe will need fortification, who better than this guy?
Chicago would save a little more than half his $4.75M salary. Jerry Jones can damn near smell the Super Bowl and you know he’s all-in and this kind of a thing would be right up his alley, anyway. Briggs could be like another coach while his rib heals, and if he’s better than Justin Druant at the weakside linebacker spot, then roll with him. He lives and breathes the Tampa-2. Go bold Jerry. Go bold.
St. Louis Rams: I realize I’ve linked the Seahawks with nearly every player here, but in reality they are one of the most aggressive franchises in the NFL and they are one of the most active teams leading into the deadline trying to improve their roster. Trading within a division can be taboo, but it’s no secret the Seahawks really want a dynamic tight end to add to their offense and Jared Cook’s guaranteed money has been paid out, his base is a modest $3M this season and one wonders will the Rams be paying him $7M a year moving forward?
The Rams have Lance Kendricks in the fold, and his cap numbers are radically different from Cook’s. There doesn’t seem to be too many tight ends of any caliber available and I’d see if the Rams will move him. With the RG3 trade bounty gone, and the Rams still in need of help, additional draft picks would be of worth to them.
Tennessee Titans: I’m not sure anyone would take Andy Levitre’s contract off their hands (are the offensive-line wounded 49ers desperate enough to do it?), but I’d be wanting to get Jake Locker out of town now that the recent first-round pick has been deposed. Charlie Whitehurst can back up. Locker’s salary is cheap – would he be a better backup in Baltimore than Tyrod Taylor if injury struck? Receiver Nate Washington is in the last year of his deal with a base of $4.8M, and he’s available, and linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (no future guarantees, $2.25M base salary) might be of some interest to teams as well (kind of thought New England would have plucked him but ended up with Titans linebacker Akeem Ayers in a trade last week instead.
Washington Redskins: From everything I’ve heard, owner Dan Snyder isn’t in sell mode (when is he?) and dumping any veterans is unlikely, but with them paying DeSean Jackson big money already and having to pay tight end Jordan Reed big money if he can stay healthy, and them unsorted at the quarterback position, and depleted of so many picks the last few years from the RG3 trade, I’d see if Cleveland or Seattle or San Francisco or New England or Kansas City or whomever had an interest in Pierre Garcon.
He has a $7.1M base, and his guarantees are paid, making it a team-friendly pay-as-you-go situation ($7.1M base salaries each of the next two years). This team has so many holes on defense and along the offensive line, it doesn’t make sense to have so many assets sunk into the receiving corps. Garcon’s yards per reception is way down and could have some decent value on the open market. And maybe you can get a sixth-round pick for Santana Moss (making the $955,000 veteran minimum), who could play the slot for a needy team, but doesn’t see the field much at all in Washington.
Minnesota Vikings: Receiver Greg Jennings likely isn’t going to be making $9M a year with this team moving forward, and while he’s been nice for Teddy Bridgewater, someone might take the rest of is $4.9M 2014 base salary off your hands. Paying him $9M a year would be tough, but the return on him would also be limited given his age and the fact other teams would be viewing him as a rental.
New York Jets: David Harris is playing hard and I’m sure the Jets want him back in the future at a reduced rate from his current mega-contract as an impending free agent. But you could trade him and still re-sign him. That’s allowed, you know. He makes $4.9M this season in the final year of his deal and with all of Arizona’s injuries to its front seven, or the Chargers linebacker woes or the 49ers’ rash of injuries I wonder if he makes sense for one of those teams.
The Jets might as well go as young as can be, and with one win at the midpoint of the season, it can’t get much worse with him or without him. Antwan Barnes has been in demand at times in the past as a situational pass rusher, and with a $1.2M salary he won’t save the Jets much money and is a nice player to have around, but other teams could target him for precisely those reasons. John Idzik already made one big trade, getting Percy Harvin, maybe he’ll make more. Barnes with the Seahawks, Idzik’s old employers who dealt him Harvin, doesn’t seem crazy to me.
So there you have it. My brain hurts after all of that, and, in the end, it’s going to be largely for naught. We all know not much happens in the NFL at the deadline. It would be great if more teams were willing to deal, or willing to acknowledge their situation and begin to move proactively for the future. But it’s rarely the case this time of year.
Jay Cutler’s costly quarterbacking
The Bears trailed, 38-7, at the half, with Jay Cutler compounding their misery throughout with poor decisions. Turnovers helped cement their fate, as they always seems to do, and it was difficult to watch this butt-kicking on the heels of their listless loss to Miami at home last week. You wonder if the decision to pay Cutler $22.5M this season, and $18M per year overall as part of his extension signed just after last season, might end up dooming the regime of Phil Emery and Marc Trestman.
All of the locker room histrionics were supposed to fire up this team, get them to turn it around, go out and flash all of their offensive firepower and show what they’re made of. And maybe they did just that. At 3-5, they are in trouble in a very competitive NFC North, and I keep going back to the decision to put Josh McCown back on the bench late last season and seemingly rush Jay Cutler back to the starting job after a prolonged injury absence for the postseason run. (Many around the NFL believe that timing was related to Cutler quickly accepting a contract offer that was on the table, and effectively agreeing to that deal in December, rather than wait until after the season, at which point the Bears had to play him. You couldn’t have McCown take the team to the playoffs and then announce, oh by the way, he’s gone and Cutler is now making $18M a year!).
Well, the Bears are 4-7 since replacing McCown with Cutler last season. During McCown’s six games at the helm (he played most of the loss at Washington when Cutler went down, then made five starts) the offense averaged a staggering 419 yards per game, with all the key cogs flourishing – Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett. No one complained about his role, there was a big star or two every game and plenty of action for everyone else. McCown threw 12 touchdowns to one interception in that span, with one fumble lost.
In the 11 games since with Cutler, the Bears have averaged 315 yards per game of total offense, and rarely have all of the Bears key players flourished. It’s been far more spotty (Chicago has been held to 257 yards or less in four times in that span) and we all know about Marshall’s unhappiness last week. Cutler has thrown 23 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in that span, and has also fumbled 10 times and lost four of them. So that’s 15 turnovers in those 11 games, which is most in the NFL. It’s a staggering departure from what preceded his return and it’s with the exact same scheme, coaches and teammates as before (there were injuries here or there in both spans of games, particularly to the offensive line).
Shutdown corners going down
It was a bad week to lose a star corner. Four young studs went down at the position -- Arizona’s Patrick Peterson, Baltimore’s Jimmy Smith, Indianapolis’ Vontae Davis and Chicago’s Kyle Fuller -- and three of those four teams got utterly exposed on defense as soon as their star corner departed (the only team not to, the Bruce Arians led Cardinals, who just always win).
The Ravens and Colts in particular could have major issues if these guys miss any significant time, as both of their pass rushes scare me against better teams, and their understudies got torched on Sunday. Peterson, with a concussion, will have to follow the protocol, but the Cardinals have overcome all kinds of injuries this season and nothing seems to slow them down. And the Bears defense was weak even with Fuller playing like a Rookie of the Year, so it is what it is there …
Odds and ends from Week 8
Falcons coach Mike Smith had the look of a defeated man after his team blew a 21-point lead in London to the Lions and lost in heart-breaking fashion (a false start negated Detroit’s missed kick, then Matt Prater was good from 48 yards to end the game). His team gave up a first down on a third-and-25, and could not get out of its own way in the second half of the game. It’s going to get worse there before it starts to get better.
That trick play the Jets tried, with the decoy falling down in the endzone and then popping up to try to catch a lateral (!!!) from Percy Harvin around the goalline on a kickoff return? Yeah they can sink that in the Meadowlands swamp. Immediately. Saying all of that, Harvin’s impact was felt most on special teams. Geno Smith threw one of three quick interceptions trying to force a ball to Harvin, and with where Mike Vick is at this point, and where the Jets are, I say stick with Geno …
Gronk is all the way back, folks. He could not be stopped on Sunday, he was catching balls again surrounded by four defenders, and leaving half of them on the ground from bouncing off him or getting run over. He’s doing a nice job of trying to land quickly when airborne and set his feet – to minimize the many blows he takes to those surgically-repaired knees – and looks more confident and at ease every week. He’s getting downfield again and it’s scary.
The Browns better rediscover their run game, and fast. Teams keying on the outside zone runs, and the loss of Alex Mack was again felt deeply in a win over the Raiders that was a struggle.
Andre Smith is still a concern for the Bengals. He got called for some critical holds and was having a tough time with the Ravens. Huge, huge win for the Bengals and getting A.J. Green back will be massive as well, but that offense line is going to have its share of struggles down the line I believe. To this point Baltimore’s pass rush has feasted on weak NFC South teams (other than Smith, the Bengals beleaguered unit held up well) but will have to show it can crank it up against top opponents, as the entire team will. The AFC North is going to be wild, with everyone over .500 at the halfway point.
