NFL Week 15 picks: Expert looks at teams coming off blowout losses under proven betting system

SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman's system paid off in Week 14 with the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders covering against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos, respectively. He's lined up another system for Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season and identified two spots bettors can target.

NFL teams bouncing back after blowout losses

• Win Rate: 53-30-5 ATS (63.9%)
• Sample Size: Since 2005
• Criteria: Teams off a 20+ point loss without rest
• Edge: Underdogs of 9.5 or less

Why does this work?

This system works because Jo Public overreacts exorbitantly after blowout losses. A team gets destroyed 38-10, and suddenly everyone thinks they're garbage. Sports talk shows go crazy, casual bettors start fading them hard and the oddsmakers are forced to move the lines aggressively in response. But people forget these are NFL teams—they've got experienced coaches, professional players and they've been through bad games before. One blowout doesn't define them. Most of these lopsided losses are flukes, not evidence that the team suddenly fell apart.

When the public panics and the lines overreact, that's your opportunity to jump on inflated spreads. But there's a limit—the line needs to stay under 10. Once it hits double digits, the system's telling you something's actually broken with that team.

Week 15 qualifiers

Arizona Cardinals +9.5 vs. Houston Texans | Confidence: 3.5 out of 5

The Cardinals allowed 534 yards and 45 points to the Rams last week. The Rams are favored to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so this result is understandable. Arizona has struggled against NFC West opponents, losing three consecutive games by more than 40 points. The team is now 3-10 with five straight losses and 10 defeats in their last 11 games after a 2-0 start. They have been officially eliminated from postseason contention and may focus on playing spoiler in the last month of the season. Outside the division, Arizona has lost six straight games, but each defeat was by a single score. Jacoby Brissett has performed well in the fourth quarter, often securing late covers.

The Texans possess the best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 16 points per game. In seven recent matchups, Houston has allowed only 259.6 yards per game with a 4.57 yards-per-play average. On the other side of the ball, Houston has scored more than 23 points just once in winning five straight games while going 4-1 ATS.

Houston is entering Week 15 after defeating the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs in consecutive weeks. This creates an extremely vulnerable scheduling spot, particularly with injuries piling up on defense. The public and sportsbooks have overvalued Houston based on beating playoff-caliber teams, while losing sight of the fact Houston's offensive performance was pedestrian in the Week 14 win over Kansas City. C.J. Stroud went 0-for-8 to begin the second half, and the Texans only prevailed because head coach Andy Reid made inexplicable fourth-down decisions. Arizona should be more dialed in after getting embarrassed last week. Plus, the Cardinals are accustomed to playing indoors.

Washington Commanders +2.5 vs. New York Giants | Confidence: 2.5 out of 5

This matchup features two struggling teams with a combined 5-21 record and certainly qualifies for a corner TV game at sportsbooks. Washington has lost eight consecutive games, while the Giants have dropped seven straight. Washington fits the 63.9% ATS rebound system following a significant 31-0 loss in Week 14. The market appears to have overreacted to this result, as the line has shifted from -1.5 to -2.5.

Marcus Mariota leads a strong rushing attack for the Commanders, which could take advantage of the Giants' well-documented run defense issues. Mariota has demonstrated the ability to attack weak secondaries effectively. In his seven starts this season, he averages 35.7 rushing yards per game and the Giants allow the third-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (24.2 yards). Additionally, Mariota's ceiling rises when he can scramble, which will be essential against a Giants defense that has shown inconsistent pass rush discipline.

Betting on Mariota to exceed his rushing yard average could be a valuable prop bet, especially considering the advantageous matchup against the Giants' defense. Furthermore, with the return of Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. to full health, Washington gains additional offensive options that may challenge the Giants' depleted secondary. This opens opportunities for player props, such as receiving yards or touchdown markets for these key players. Always look for plus money on anytime touchdown bets.

The Giants are off a bye but they've been Washington's punching bag lately, losing three straight while going 0-3 ATS. Given both teams' recent performances, it is difficult to confidently support either side.