NFL Week 18 picks, odds, spread, best bets: Sam Darnold-led Vikings upset Lions at home for No. 1 seed

Jordan Dajani gives his picks for Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season

By Jordan Dajani

Jan 2, 2025 at 9:01 am ET • 4 min read

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A nice 4-1 against-the-spread week for us in Week 17. The favorites in prime time came through for us. Joe Burrow defeated Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos and then the Buffalo Bills blew out the New York Jets. I was on the Indianapolis Colts to cover eight points vs. the New York Giants, which was clearly a mistake.

Week 18 is just like Week 1. There are opportunities to find value, but at the same time you can't feel completely certain on anything. How will the Kansas City Chiefs' backups fare against the Broncos? Are the Baltimore Ravens really going to cover 18 points vs. the Cleveland Browns? Here's what I'm thinking for Week 18. As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart.

Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus

Top-five picks ATS record: 38-40-2
Overall ATS record: 115-137-4
Straight up record: 168-88

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bills aren't expected to play many of their starters for the entire game, but I'm not sure it matters. The Patriots did keep it close with Buffalo a couple weeks ago, losing by three points, but keep in mind the Patriots currently hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Don't ruin that in a meaningless game! The Patriots don't need a quarterback, so New England could select Travis Hunter, or trade the pick for a nice return.

I tried to back the Patriots as home underdogs last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, but they were destroyed, 40-7. Maybe this defense can trick people into thinking Mitch Trubisky is a franchise quarterback.

The pick: Patriots -2.5
Projected score: Patriots 23-17

Houston Texans (-1) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Titans will play both Mason Rudolph and the mayo god on Sunday, and let me tell you, this is a Will Levis legacy game waiting to happen. No, I don't think he's the long-term answer in Tennessee, but he's going to come out FIRING in the regular-season finale. The first time Levis threw the football around while wearing the Houston Oilers throwbacks, he tossed four touchdowns in an upset victory at home.

Titans fans were excited to move up to No. 2 in the draft order since landing Shedeur Sanders becomes more likely. Levis is going to ruin that by throwing two touchdowns in a victory against the rival Texans. Yes, I'm aware the Titans are the worst NFL team to bet on since at least 1970, but this specific matchup is incredibly important to ownership.

The pick: Titans +1
Projected score: Titans 20-16

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

This is a big number, but I think it's warranted. Green Bay wants to create some momentum with a home win against a divisional opponent, while the Bears are very ready for this season to be over with. Did you watch Chicago's 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week? I hope you didn't. It was horrific. The weather did play a role in the outcome, but the Bears offense recorded just 179 yards of total offense, while Caleb Williams threw for 122 yards and one interception.

This is an opportunity for the Packers to establish themselves as the Super Bowl sleeper many thought they were entering this season. The Packers' five losses this year have come by a combined 22 points, and all have come against teams that have won at least 13 games.

The pick: Packers -10
Projected score: Packers 24-13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

It would cost me more money to Uber Eats a Chick-fil-A sandwich to my home than buy a ticket for this Colts game. Yes, I checked. Fans are revolting, and they probably should. Following Indy's embarrassing 45-33 loss to the Giants, I would say general manager Chris Ballard is certainly on the hot seat. This whole defense should be on the hot seat as well.

The Jaguars obviously aren't some powerhouse, but this team still plays hard. Every game they have played since Nov. 17 has been a one-score affair. Mac Jones is doing a good job feeding the ball to rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who I think has a massive afternoon on Sunday. Jaguars upset the Colts in a surprisingly high-scoring game.

The pick: Jaguars +4.5
Projected score: Jaguars 30-27

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)

The game of the week! Ben Johnson's offense looks incredible, but this Lions defense is worth worrying about. Detroit allowed 7.4 yards per play in December. That's the most yards per play any team has allowed in the month of December in the Super Bowl era. The Lions ranked last or second-to-last in points per game (32.5), yards allowed per game (428.5) and passing yards allowed per game (321) last month.

It's tough, because I think the Lions would be my Super Bowl pick if we were playing "Madden" and injuries were turned off. Detroit has five Week 1 defensive starters on injured reserve, which would tie the most by any team in a playoff game since 1970.

The Lions lost a big matchup at home to Buffalo, and I see the same thing happening vs. Minnesota. Sam Darnold is riding high after throwing for a career-high 377 passing yards vs. the Packers. In a shocking turn of events, it's the Vikings that acquire the first-round bye in the NFC.

The pick: Vikings +3
Projected score: Vikings 40-33