NFL Week 3 picks, odds: Staying on the Falcons bandwagon plus more best bets from Tom Fornelli

Three picks (plus a bonus pick) and a cloud of trust

By Tom Fornelli

Sep 23, 2018 at 7:40 am ET • 2 min read

Last week I led off the column by taking the Falcons to cover at home against the Panthers and they came through for us, leading to another 2-1 week and a 4-2 record on the season. This week we're going to stay on the Falcons bandwagon as they welcome another division opponent to Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

If you'd like some trends to support this pick, I have a couple for you. First, the Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and beat the Saints the previous two times they've met in Atlanta. Also, the home team has gone 9-4 ATS in this series in the last 13 meetings. But that's not what's leading to this pick. More than anything, I don't think the Saints are very good. They gave up 48 points at home to Tampa Bay in their season opener, and last week needed the Browns to miss two field goals and two extra points to avoid losing their second straight at home. If New Orleans has played that poorly at home, how can I trust them on the road here?

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Detroit Lions

Had this spread been seven points or more I wouldn't be as comfortable with this pick as I am, but at 6.5 points you have to take the Pats. Betting on Tom Brady has always been a profitable strategy, particularly as a road favorite. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Patriots have been favored by four points or more on the road 11 times. They've gone 8-3 ATS in those games. The fact that Detroit is coached by a former Belichick assistant in Matt Patricia only makes me more confident as the Patriots know exactly what's coming their way.

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Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Carolina Panthers

It's early in the season, but to this point, the Bengals have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Their 0.567 points per play ranks behind only Kansas City and Tampa Bay, and though not having Joe Mixon is a concern, Giovani Bernard has proven to be a valuable weapon when forced to carry the load at running back. I'm expecting a possible shootout here, and I think the Bengals offense will be up to the task of covering this spread.

Bonus Pick

Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys: The Seahawks are 0-2 and playing at home for the first time this season. Seattle is a 1.5-point favorite over the Cowboys and the total is set at 41.5 points. If you'd like to see my pick for this game head over to my SportsLine page.