The NFL's new dynamic kickoff made its regular season debut this week, and the early results weren't much different from a year ago that required the change. But even though the rule changes passed with an owner vote back in March, seeing it today still wasn't a guarantee.
Multiple sources tell CBS Sports that the league had a secret ripcord it could pull on the dynamic kickoff late into the preseason. This eject button wasn't publicized, and obviously the league and team owners didn't feel the need to press the red button, but the option was there to go back to the old kickoff after a preseason tryout.
The reasoning, according to sources, was a fear of an increased injury rate and/or a less entertaining play.
The Super Bowl was the tipping point for the league when all 13 kickoffs went for touchbacks. Kickoff returns had fallen to a league-low 22 percent in the 2023 season — down from 38 percent in 2022. Commissioner Roger Goodell charged football operations and special teams coaches around the league to create an exciting alternative kickoff that could bring the foot back into the game.
The league also wanted to reduce the injury rate on the kickoff. Though kickoff injuries were down last year, league officials have said that was only because returns were down. The injury rate itself remained about the same — nearly four times the rate of a standard scrimmage play.
But what if the injury rate didn't decrease as it did in the preseason? What if, instead of concussions, the league saw more lower-body and season-ending injuries based off the lateral movement between opponents? Sources say the league had to hedge its bets based off that.
Another reason was the fear coaches simply wouldn't play ball, and they would kick it through the back of the end zone for a touchback for a drive start at the 30-yard line. If the preseason didn't yield enough data — and if the "dynamic" kickoff was less dynamic than the ceremonial kickoff before it — then perhaps it shouldn't be introduced in the regular season.
These fears were never realized in the preseason, and the kickoff is here to stay in the 2024 season. It's unlikely any tweaks will be made to the rules during the season based off league precedent, but the kickoff will surely be a focus with the competition committee for any potential revisions next year.
The league saw a 70.5 percent return rate in the preseason, the highest since 2014. Last year's preseason return rate was just 54.8 percent. And the NFL also saw the most returns of 40 or more yards in nearly a decade.
The average drive start for all kickoffs was the 28.8 yard line, up 4.6 yards from last year. And for all kickoffs that were returned, the average drive start was the 28.
While returns were up in the preseason, sources around the league are dubious they'll remain that high this season. And that was seen in the first two games of the season.
Eleven kickoffs in Ravens-Chiefs resulted in nine touchbacks. The Chiefs returned two kicks for a total of 57 yards. In Friday's game between the Packers and Eagles, 10 of the 13 kickoffs went for touchbacks with an average return of 20.7 yards.
"I think the touchback percentage will be close to the same as it was last year… maybe a slight uptick," one special teams coach told CBS Sports. "Risk isn't worth the reward in my opinion. Average drive start in the preseason was the 29 yard line. If the touchback was at the 35 like we originally wanted, return rates would skyrocket. People don't see a 5-yard difference from last year [to be] that significant."
In the dynamic kickoff's original proposal, a touchback would have brought the ball out to the 35-yard line. That was deemed too punitive for kickers to hit the landing zone, and they negotiated back to the 30. But in doing so, the NFL may have not given enough reward to a team to put the ball in play.
The thinking goes, sources say, that teams could opt to kick it out of the back of the end zone and save their players' bodies in exchange for the extra 1.2 yards on average.
One league source estimated the return percentage could be around 40 percent and still be considered a success as long as there were flashy returns.
"Coaches who have said publicly and privately they are risk-averse will want to see this play out before making decisions on what to do," another league source said.
Another concern is potential injury to kickers. The league saw an uptick in kicker-involved tackles on kickoffs this preseason, which came as no surprise due to there being more returns. But adjusted for frequency, kickers were still involved in more tackles than in the past two previous years.
A source indicated returns could decrease across the league if coaches see one or more injuries to kickers on tackles.
Suffice it to say, dynamic kickoff is one of the great unknowns this season.
