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The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have been trading body blows for 105 years. On Saturday, the teams will add one more chapter to the oldest, most played and most storied rivalry in the NFL when they collide in a Super Wild Card Weekend matchup at Soldier Field in Chicago. 

The showdown will be just the third time the teams have faced each other in the postseason. The first came on Dec. 14, 1941, exactly one week after the attack on Pearl Harbor. The Bears won that day 33-14. The only other playoff matchup came in the NFC Championship Game in January 2011, which the Packers won 21-14 en route to winning the Super Bowl.

This season the rivals split their regular season meetings, with the home team winning each time. In the first game, on Dec. 7, Green Bay's Keisean Nixon intercepted Caleb Williams' pass in the end zone to preserve a 28-21 victory. Two weeks later, Chicago overcame a 10-point deficit late in the fourth quarter, with the help of an onside kick recovery, and got a 46-yard touchdown pass in overtime to beat the Packers 22-16. 

For the third act in the trilogy, Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings over the Bears.

Packers vs. Bears odds

  • Opening spread: Packers -1.5 (-108)
  • Opening money line: Bears -105, Packers -115
  • Opening total: 47.5

The point spread has remained steady since it opened on Sunday night at DraftKings, though there is still much time for money to come in and the line to move. Remember: Green Bay closed as a 6.5-point favorite in the teams' first meeting at Lambeau Field and Chicago was a slight 1.5-point favorite in the second matchup at Soldier Field, so this week's point spread makes sense, especially when factoring in that the Packers played a little more than half of the second game without quarterback Jordan Love, who went out with a concussion. Love has cleared concussion protocol and is set to play on Saturday.

Maybe more interestingly, the total has dropped since opening at 47.5. Perhaps bettors have been swayed by the weather forecast for snow, rain and breezy conditions.

Packers betting profile

  • Opening win total: 9.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 9-7-1
  • ATS record: 7-10
  • O/U record: 9-8

If Green Bay remains favored, the Packers would be the first No. 7 seed to be favored in a playoff game since the playoffs were expanded to 14 teams in 2020. But the Packers are 0-4 over their last four games and haven't won since pass rush monster Micah Parsons was lost for the season with a torn ACL. They're also 1-3 against-the-spread in those games.

To be fair, Green Bay also played the last 2.5 games without Love, who's set to return to the lineup on Saturday. Prior to his concussion in Week 16, Love ranked fourth in the league in touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.8) and sixth in passer rating (101.9). On Saturday, he will go up against a Chicago defense that has struggled this season. The Bears ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season in EPA/play (0.02) and 26th in success rate (46.24%). They relied on forcing turnovers (leading the league with 33 takeaways), but the Packers were a low-turnover team during the regular season, with just 13 giveaways (third lowest in the NFL).

Bears betting profile

  • Opening win total: 8.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 11-6
  • ATS record: 10-6-1
  • O/U record: 9-8

If Chicago remains the underdog, the Bears would become just the second No. 2 seed ever to be the underdog in a playoff opener and the first since the 49ers in the 2011 season. Between the 2019 and 2023 seasons, Chicago failed to cover any of the 10 games against Green Bay, but over the last two seasons, the Bears are 3-1 against-the-spread against their hated rivals from up north. 

One of the main reasons for Chicago's turnaround against the Packers is Williams. The former No. 1 overall pick has played well in four games against Green Bay, completing 63.6% of his passes for 815 yards and five touchdowns while throwing only one interception. He also has added 125 rushing yards over that time. On Saturday Williams will face a Packers defense that has struggled without Parsons. Over the last four games the Green Bay defense has just four sacks without its pass rushing menace, which is the fewest in the NFL over that time.

Packers-Bears prop pick: Josh Jacobs Over 25 rushing yards in each half

Note: The pick above is NOT the preferred Josh Jacobs prop pick. The one above is just a placeholder for the real pick, which is available at DraftKings: Jacobs to have 25-plus rushing yards in each half (-125). The Packers running back hit this prop in the first matchup against the Bears. He has been dealing with a knee issue for the better part of two months, which has limited his production, but he enters the Wild Card game saying he feels the best he has in six weeks. He's not on the injury report for the first time since Nov. 16.

In addition, Jacobs will face a Chicago defense that gave up 134.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season; just five teams allowed more. Also, the weather forecast for Saturday is calling for rain, snow and breezy conditions, which could put more emphasis on running the ball.