The Thanksgiving nightcap between the Miami Dolphins (5-6) and the Green Bay Packers (8-3) features two teams that enter their Week 13 matchup on fire.
Miami has won three in a row following a three-game losing streak that ran their record to 2-6 while Green Bay has won six of their last seven games following their 2-2 start to 2024. However, the weather at Lambeau Field could play a significant factor in cooling off the Dolphins. Miami lost 11 consecutive games in which the temperature at kickoff was below 40 degrees, the longest active streak in the NFL. Sure enough, the predicted forecast for Thanksgiving night in Green Bay, Wisconsin is 17 degrees at kickoff. That's bad news for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who has lost the six coldest starts of his career with six passing touchdowns to eight interceptions in those games.
Will Miami be able to overcome the cold and the host Packers at Lambeau? Or will Green Bay hand them another holiday loss just like their last meeting when they beat the Dolphins 26-20 on Christmas Day in 2022? Let's take a closer look at this matchup and project a winner.
Packers vs. Dolphins where to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 28 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
NFL betting odds: Packers -3.5; O/U 47.5 (via Caesars)
When the Dolphins have the ball
Tagovailoa is coming off of his best game of the season, throwing for 317 yards and a season-high four touchdowns in a 34-15 beatdown of the New England Patriots in Week 12. Much of his production went to wideout Jaylen Waddle who also hauled in season-highs in catches (eight) and receiving yards (144).
With Tagovailoa coming off his third NFL concussion in 2024, head coach Mike McDaniel has been more conservative with his offense than ever before. Tagovailoa has attempted a pass behind the line of scrimmage on 30.6% ohf is passes this season, which is the highest rate in the league, per NFL Pro, as well as 6.7% higher than his previous career-high rate of 23.9% just last season. As a result of that and Tagovailoa's midseason absence, All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging the second-fewest receiving yards per game (51.9) in his entire career.
When Tagovailoa does go deep, Packers safety Xavier McKinney will be waiting for him. McKinney co-leads the NFL with seven interceptions this season, and he leads the NFL with a 50% ball hawk rate this season, per NFL Pro, which is the highest rate in the NFL by 10% among those who have been targeted at least 15 times. For your information, ball hawk rate is a measure of how often a player disrupts a pass divided by targets as the nearest defender. Tagovaila may be forced to throw more than the Dolphins would like because their offensive line has struggled this season. Miami rushers have gained just under a yard (0.9) before contact per designed rush, per NFL Pro, which is their lowest since McDaniel became their coach in 2022. Naturally, they additionally have their lowest explosive run rate (12.2%) and their highest rate of contract behind the line of scrimmage (48.6%) since 2022.
When the Packers have the ball
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (1,392 rushing yards in 2024) and Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (1,325 rushing yards in 2024) receive a lot of deserved praise, but right behind them atop the NFL's rushing yards leaderboard is Green Bay Packers running Josh Jacobs with 944 rushing yards.
Jacobs bludgeoned the San Francisco 49ers defense over and over and over again in the Packers 38-10 Week 12 victory on Sunday, rumbling for 106 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. That effort made him the first 100-yard rusher against the 49ers since then-Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields in 2021, ending the longest streak of a team not allowing a 100-yard rusher since 1955, per CBS Sports Research. He will likely be a problem for a Dolphins defense that has allowed 638 yards after missed tackles this season, the 11th-most in the league, per NFL Pro, since Jacobs' 58 tackles avoided are the fourth-most in the NFL this season.
When Miami's linebackers and safeties start creeping up to the line of scrimmage to deal with Jacobs, that's when Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love will look to strike deep downfield. He has throw deep, throws of 20 or more air yards, at the second-highest rate in the entire NFL this season, 15.4%, and Love has connected on 17 of his 43 passes (39.5%) for 640 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Those 640 deep yards are the second-most in the league, and Love's propensity to go deep feeds into one of the Dolphins biggest defensive deficiencies. Miami has allowed the sixth-highest completion percentage, 43.8%, and the third-highest passer rating (130.2) versus deep throws this season, per NFL Pro. It could be a long, cold night for the visiting Dolphins.
Prediction
This matchup has doom written all over it for Miami. They're the owners of the longest losing streak (11 games) in the cold, when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees, and their defense is ill-suited to deal with one of the Packers signature elements, Jordan Love going deep. Tagovailoa may find a few more big plays downfield with Packers top cornerback Jaire Alexander out with a knee injury, but it's unlikely he'll see consistency in that area for the Dolphins given the weather conditions and McKinney lurking and waiting for Tagovailoa to try him. Green Bay wins going away.
Pick: Packers 31, Dolphins 18
Bonus: R.J. White, who is on a 73-30-2 roll on Green Bay Packers games, has released his best bets for the Week 13 Dolphins-Packers game. White is leaning the Under total, but who is he backing to cover? Find oiut right here at SportsLine.