Patriots trying to end this bizarre 50-year playoff drought for big road favorites: Why history favors Denver

It's not often you see a road team favored to win in an NFL playoff game, but that's exactly what the situation will be this weekend when the New England Patriots travel to the Denver Broncos for Sunday's AFC Championship game. 

The Patriots are currently favored by 4.5 points over the Broncos, and if that point spread holds, New England would be the largest road favorite in the history of the AFC title game. There have been two instances where a road team was a four-point favorite, but no road team has ever been favored by more. The Patriots would also be tied for the biggest overall road favorite in a conference title game with the 2012 49ers, who were favored by 4.5 points in Atlanta. 

Of course, the reason the Patriots are favored is because the Broncos won't have Bo Nix, who injured his ankle in Denver's divisional round playoff win over the Bills. With Nix out, the Broncos will be turning the starting quarterback job over to Jarrett Stidham, who hasn't thrown a pass in an actual game in two years. 

The Patriots actually opened as 5.5-point favorites over the top-seeded Broncos, but that number has moved down over the past few days. If it stays above four, Patriots fans might want to start worrying, because road teams favored by four points or more in the postseason have historically struggled. 

As a matter of fact, if the Patriots go into the game favored by four or more, they'll have to defy history if they want to cover the spread in this game. According to Pro Football Reference, there have been 10 games over the past 50 years where a road team has been favored by four points or more in a playoff game, and they haven't covered the spread a single time.  

Here's how ugly it's been for the favorite in each of those 10 games: 

• They've gone 0-10 against the spread, including a game this year where the Rams didn't cover as 10.5-point favorites over the Panthers in the wild card round. 
• The favored team has gone 4-6 straight-up, with the four wins coming by an average of just four points per game.

Let's take a look at all 10 games (via Pro Football Reference):

Of the four wins, one came from a 2015 Seahawks team that only won because Minnesota's Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of a 10-9 loss. Another win came from a 2012 49ers team that trailed 17-0 against the Falcons in the NFC title game before rallying to win. And let's not forget about the Rams, who needed a touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford with 38 seconds left to beat the Panthers, who were double-digit underdogs. 

The only team that comfortably won was the Buccaneers and that wasn't even that comfortable, because Washington had the ball in the final three minutes of the game with a chance to tie. The Buccaneers' win is notable because Washington was forced to start Taylor Heinicke, who didn't make a single start during the regular season, which is the same situation the Broncos are in this week with Stidham. 

When you look at all 10 games above, nine have been decided by just one score, so history suggests it will be a close game no matter who ends up winning. 

If the Patriots want to advance to Super Bowl LX, they'll also have to pull off something they've never done before: win a playoff game in Denver. Over the course of their franchise history, the Patriots have played four postseason games in Denver and they've gone 0-4, including an 0-3 record with Tom Brady. 

Let's take a look at the games that were played in Denver along with the point spread for each game: 

• 1986 divisional round: Broncos 22-17 over Patriots (Denver -4)
• 2005 divisional round: Broncos 27-13 over Patriots (Denver -3)
• 2013 AFC title game: Broncos 26-16 over Patriots (Denver -5)
• 2015 AFC title game: Broncos 20-18 over Patriots (New England -3)

As you can see, the Broncos aren't just 4-0 straight-up, but they're also 4-0 against the spread.

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Tyler Sullivan

The last time these two teams met in the playoffs came in the 2015 AFC title game, and it was actually a similar situation: The Patriots were favored by three even though the game was in Denver. A big reason New England was favored was because the Broncos were dealing with some major questions at quarterback (Peyton Manning could barely throw a forward pass at that point). 

In the end, the Broncos' defense came up big in a 20-18 win that propelled Denver to Super Bowl 50, which was played at Levi's Stadium, the same place where the Super Bowl is being played this year. 

If the Broncos somehow pull off the win with Stidham, they'll become the first team since the 1992 Bills to have two different starting quarterbacks win at least one playoff game for them in the same postseason. Stidham is the seventh quarterback since the 1970 merger to make his first start of the year in a playoff game, and it hasn't been pretty: The previous six went a combined 1-5, but three of the six games were decided by one score, including Reich's victory. 

Stidham won't bring much experience, but don't count out the Broncos, because if NFL history has proven one thing, it's that home teams thrive in this exact playoff situation.