Patriots vs. Chargers prediction, odds: 2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend 'Sunday Night Football' picks

The seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers battle the second-seeded New England Patriots in a 2026 Wild Card Weekend matchup on 'Sunday Night Football.' Los Angeles is coming off a 19-3 loss at Denver in Week 18, while New England cruised to a 38-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Chargers (11-6), who finished second in the AFC West, are 5-3 on the road this season. The Patriots (14-3), who were champions of the AFC East, are 6-3 on their home field.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Pats lead the all-time series 27-17-2, including a 3-1 edge in the postseason. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Chargers vs. Patriots odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 46.5 via DraftKings Sportsbooks. Before making any Patriots vs. Chargers picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Chargers vs. Patriots. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Patriots vs. Chargers:

Why the Patriots can cover

New England is led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye. The third pick in the 2024 NFL Draft played in 17 games this season, completing 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with eight interceptions and a 113.5 rating. He also rushed 103 times for 450 yards and four touchdowns. In a 28-24 win at Baltimore on Dec. 21, he completed 31 of 44 passes for 380 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He also rushed 10 times for 25 yards.

His top target was veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs. In 17 games, Diggs caught 85 passes for 1,013 yards (11.9 avreage) and four touchdowns. He had 17 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 34, with 354 yards after the catch and 51 first-down conversions. In a 42-10 win over the New York Jets on Dec. 28, he caught six passes for 101 yards and a score. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Chargers can cover

Veteran quarterback Justin Herbert leads the Los Angeles offense. In 16 games this season, he completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns with 13 interceptions and a 94.1 rating. He also rushed 83 times for 498 yards and two touchdowns. In a 34-17 win at Dallas on Dec. 21, he completed 23 of 29 passes for 300 yards and two scores.

Among his top targets is second-year veteran Ladd McConkey. In 16 games this season, he caught 66 passes for 789 yards (12.0 average) and six touchdowns. He had eight explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 58, with 310 yards after the catch and 35 first-down conversions. In the win at Dallas, he caught four passes for 43 yards and a score. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Chargers vs. Patriots picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 48 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Patriots vs. Chargers, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chargers vs. Patriots spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.