Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It's only been two weeks, but the 2024 NFL season has turned into the year of the underdog, which could bode well for all of us tonight, because it means we might actually get an exciting game. The Patriots are six-point underdogs to the Jets on "Thursday Night Football," which I'm only bringing up because underdogs of six or more points have been impressive this year.
The Patriots are the ninth team to be an underdog of six points or more this season, and the previous eight teams have gone 6-0-2 against the spread and 4-4 straight-up. (The Patriots even pulled off one of those four upsets with a win over the Bengals in Week 1 as 7.5-point underdogs.) If you've bet any money on an underdog of six points or more to cover the spread this year, YOU HAVE NOT LOST, which is kind of crazy.
So will that trend continue tonight? We'll be talking about that in today's newsletter, plus we'll be ranking all the 0-2 teams.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Patriots at Jets
The New York Jets will get a chance tonight to do something they haven't done in nine years: Beat the Patriots at home. The Patriots have won 15 of their past 16 against the Jets and that includes winning eight straight games at MetLife Stadium. If the Jets are ever going to end that streak, this seems like the year to do it. Tonight's game will be kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.
Tyler Sullivan put a preview together for this game, and here's how he sees things playing out:
- Why the Patriots can win: The Patriots have been able to do exactly one thing well on offense this year, and that's run the ball. The Patriots are averaging 177.5 rushing yards per game this year, which is the fifth-highest total in the NFL. And now, they're going up against a Jets defense that hasn't been able to stop the run. If the Patriots can run the ball, they might be able to pull off the upset, but the one thing holding them back is the fact that their offensive line is beat up. New England has two starters out (Vederian Lowe, Sidy Sow) and another two who are questionable (David Andrews, Mike Owenu).
- Why the Jets can win: This could be the night where Aaron Rodgers finally has his breakout game for the Jets. The 40-year-old will be facing a Patriots defense that has surrendered the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL history, and if he can dice them up, the Jets should coast to a win. Rodgers' favorite receiving targets have been Breece Hall (12 catches), Garrett Wilson (10 catches) and Allen Lazard (eight catches), so don't be surprised if those three all have a big game.
You can get a full preview of the game from Sullivan by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Breece Hall OVER 30.5 passing yards (-120): The Jets running back has gotten off to a hot receiving start this year, and that's mostly because he's been a security blanket for Aaron Rodgers. Through two weeks, he's averaging six catches and 45.5 receiving yards per game. He's gone well over 30.5 yards in both games this season, and tonight, he'll be facing a Patriots team that has struggled to stop running backs from catching passes out of the backfield, so I definitely like the OVER here.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Greg Zuerlein OVER 6.5 points (-130): The Jets kicker has gone UNDER this total in both his games this season, which makes this a risky prop to take. However, I should point out that he went under because the Jets offense was bad in Week 1 and only marginally better in Week 2. That being said, the Jets offense has been improving each week. I think we'll see them give Zuerlein plenty of opportunities to score tonight.
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for a game where the Jets are currently favored by six points.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Sullivan's pick: Jets 27-17 over Patriots
My pick: Jets 20-17 over Patriots
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. Ranking 0-2 teams: Ravens still have hope, Panthers season is over
When it comes to trying to make the playoffs, getting off to an 0-2 start is usually the kiss of death in the NFL. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, there have been 32 teams that have started 0-2 and only two of them have bounced back to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, Cody Benjamin decided to rank all nine 0-2 teams based no how good they can still be this year. We're going to take a look at the top two teams and the bottom two teams in his rankings.
1. Bengals. "Few contenders start slow like the Bengals, so this is, in some ways, par for the course in Cincinnati. Don't get us wrong: The lingering Ja'Marr Chase drama and Tee Higgins availability questions are red flags. Discipline has been an issue. But if Joe Burrow is on the field, slinging it as he does, then this team is one of the toughest outs in the NFL."
2. Ravens. "Up and down the lineup, this group is still built for January contention. It's not wrong to be mildly concerned, though, considering the pairing of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh pairing has always struggled to put away opponents. Just don't dare count them out of the AFC North just yet."
....
8. Broncos. "Sean Payton had us buying Bo Nix's NFL readiness in the preseason, but it's fair to wonder: Was he ready to endure Nix's rookie lumps at this rate? The Oregon product hasn't exactly protected the ball despite an expectation of conservative offense to start his career. Their AFC West chances already look shot."
9. Panthers. "Carolina has been outscored 73-13, and even that doesn't do justice to their hapless offense. Mercifully, Bryce Young has since been benched for Andy Dalton. Can the veteran squeeze something out of their setup?"
If you want to see Cody's full ranking, then be sure to check out his story here.
3. NFL kickers off to historic start that's turning the league upside down
Through two weeks, the 2024 NFL season is turning into the year of the kicker. Collectively, the NFL's 32 kickers have been so good this year from long range that coaches have been much more willing to send out their kicker for a long-distance field goal attempt. Due to the onslaught of long-range field goals, teams have been attempting kicks at a higher rate, which has set up an unprecedented start to the NFL season.
Let's check out some of the numbers:
- There have been more field goals (141) than touchdowns (136) through two weeks. This marks the first time in NFL history that there have been more field goals than touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season. If the field goal number stays ahead of the touchdown number, we'll see another NFL first because there has NEVER been a season in league history where there have been more field goals than touchdowns.
- Two distance records. Through the first two weeks of the season, kickers have combined to hit 35 of 39 field goals from 50 yards or longer. To put that number in perspective, just consider this: As recently as 2006, there were only 40 field goals from 50 yards or longer for the ENTIRE SEASON, and this year's kickers have almost passed that number through two weeks. Their 89.7% conversion rate on long field goals is also the highest accuracy rate ever in any season where there's been at least 15 attempts through the first two weeks.
- Most field goals ever in a single week (73 in Week 2). If your fantasy kicker scored you a ton of points in Week 2, you're not alone. There were a total of 73 field goals kicked in Week 2, which set the NFL record for a single week. There were 68 field goals in Week 1, which is the third-most ever for a single week.
So why are kickers do good now?
Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has a theory and it's pretty simple: Kickers are just better.
"I think the kickers are just better," Aubrey said this week. "Guys practice more. You have spring leagues that are providing more opportunities for guys. The coaching is better, you're paying guys more money to do it. So at a younger age, people are starting to do it because they know that's a career path they can have and then guys are just better. No better way of saying it."
If you want to read more about the historical kicking start, you can do that here. If you want to check out our full interview with Aubrey, you can read more here.
4. Hall of Fame reveals nominees for 2025: Eli Manning eligible for the first time
There are 167 modern-era nominees for the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2025, and on Wednesday, the HOF released the full list of players who were nominated this year. The list includes several big-named players who are eligible for the first time.
Here are a few of those names:
You can check out the entire list of nominees by clicking here.
The biggest debate this year will probably revolve around Manning. From a purely numbers standpoint, the former Giants quarterback probably didn't have a Hall of Fame career, but when you factor in that he won two Super Bowls, that might be enough to earn him a nod.
The announcement of the nominees is just the first step in a process that will be going on for the next five months. The HOF will narrow down this list to a group of 50 players in October. After that, the group of 50 will be trimmed down to 25 semi-finalists in November. From there, a group of 15 finalists will be named in January. After the three cutdowns have been made, the Hall of Fame Selection Committee will get together during Super Bowl week in February to vote on the players who will be getting in. Under HOF bylaws, the committee can select a minimum of three modern-era players and a maximum of five for induction.
5. Jon Gruden exclusively talks to CBS Sports
Jon Gruden has kept a pretty low-profile since being forced out as the head coach of the Raiders back in October 2021. The 61-year-old was let go after some controversial emails he wrote were leaked out to the public. Gruden hasn't really done any interviews since he lost his job, but he granted one this week to CBS Sports National College Football reporter Brandon Marcello.
Here are a few key details from the interview:
- Gruden is absolutely open to coaching college football. If the NFL won't take him back, then Gruden would be more than happy to take a college job. "If there's somebody out there that thinks they need a candidate, somebody to come in there, maybe lather it up a little bit, jazz it up a little bit, I'll be down here in Tampa," Gruden said. "I'll be ready to go if needed."
- Gruden still talks to a lot of his NFL coaching buddies. Apparently, there are quite a few coaches around the NFL who use Gruden as a sounding board. "There's a lot of guys around the league that vent, you know, after the game. Guys I support, just privately," Gruden said. "And I just kind of try to be a positive resource and help anybody I can. And then I just basically get to my films. I study the pro game mostly."
- Gruden still has a legal case going against the NFL. Gruden has filed a lawsuit against the NFL and he's looking for "due process" in the case. "I haven't even had my due process yet, so for me to sit here and say, 'Who said what?' You know, we'll just go through the process and leave it at that," Gruden said when asked if he had any remorse about what he wrote. So far, the legal system isn't working in Gruden's favor. In a ruling that was handed out in May, the Nevada Supreme Court sided with the NFL's argument that Gruden's complaint should be made in an arbitration that's handled by the NFL.
Since losing his job with the Raiders, Gruden has mostly kept his distance from the NFL. He did help out the Saints in 2023 and he visited with the Chiefs in August 2024, but those are the only two teams he's spent time with publicly. Despite spending some time with those two teams, it seems that he's not expecting to get back to the NFL as a head coach.
If you want to read the full interview with Gruden, you can do that here.
6. Extra points: Jordan Love could play this week
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Jordan Love returns to practice. The Packers QB was back at practice on Wednesday, which now opens the door for him to possibly play on Sunday against the Titans. According to ESPN, Love has about a 50-50 chance of playing. You can check out our full story on Love here. I would be shocked if he plays. If I'm the Packers, I'd be more concerned with him getting fully healthy for the team's Week 4 game against the Vikings.
- Panthers not thinking about trading Bryce Young. The Panthers have benched Bryce Young, but it doesn't look like they're planning to get rid of him. Coach Dave Canales said on Wednesday that trading Young isn't something the team is really thinking about right now. Of course, many NFL teams have said those exact words just before trading someone, so who knows what will actually happen here.
- Ryan Tannehill won't be returning to the Dolphins. After Tua Tagovailoa went down, one of the first names that came up as a possible replacement for the Dolphins was Ryan Tannehill. However, it doesn't look like that will be happening. Tannehill is only planning to sign with a team if he can start for the entire season and with Tagovailoa possibly coming back down the road, it seems he's decided not to try and pursue a job with the Dolphins. You can read more about Tannehill's situation here.
- Free food at Falcons game. With Arthur Blank being inducted to the team's Ring of Honor, the Falcons owner has decided to celebrate the occasion by handing out free food. The team will be giving away free hot dogs, chips, and Coca-Cola products on Sunday night when the Falcons host the Chiefs. You can check out the full details of this wild giveaway here.
