We get Chiefs and Ravens tonight to kick off the 2024 NFL season, and I'm marking the grand occasion by piecing together my master list of young breakout players.
I'lm all for transparency, and last year's list did not fare well from top to bottom. Sam Howell kinda-sorta broke out, Justin Fields certainly didn't. Neither did Levi Onwuzurike or Skyy Moore. Kenny Pickett was an abomination. The returns from Nik Bonitto were iffy.
But Derek Stingley enjoyed an ascension at corner, and my No. 1 selection, George Pickens went over 1,000 yards and led qualifying receivers with an 18.1 yards-per-catch average.
These are my top 10 breakout players -- who are in Year 2 or Year 3 -- for the 2024 NFL season, and they're ranked by likelihood of breaking out, with No. 1 being the player in which I'm most confident.
Honorable Mention: Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens
I wouldn't have felt right omitting Likely, yet I strategically placed him at honorable mention because it'll be a challenge for to him to see many targets in any offense with Mark Andrews playing tight end and Zay Flowers at receiver.
Beyond that, there's plenty of question marks in Baltimore's pass-catching group, and the H-back type tight end, with deceptively good YAC skills, should carve out a more substantial role in 2024.
Last year, Likely did what he could in the new-look Ravens offense with 30 catches for 411 yards with five touchdowns. He forced a whopping 11 missed tackles on those 30 grabs in the preseason, which tracks from his time at Coastal Carolina. Without much of a true receiving threat outside of Flowers, I expect Likely and Andrews to become an elite tight-end tandem in Baltimore this season.
10. Nick Herbig, EDGE, Steelers
Herbig takes the No. 10 spot because there's only so much opportunity for him in Pittsburgh's defense with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith rushing the passer from the outside.
But I trust the traits and what Herbig flashed as outside rusher himself as a rookie. While only a hair above 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, Herbig is plenty explosive for the edge spot in the NFL -- 1.59 10-yard split ranks in the 89th percentile. He generated 10 pressures on a mere 81 pass-rushing chances, forced two fumbles, and have five tackles for loss.
In Pittsburgh pass rushers grow on trees, and Herbig possesses a very Steelers-like motor, the requisite bend to scare offensive tackles with his outside speed rush, some low-center-of-gravity power, and fluid counter moves. He'll be considered one of the best young situational pass rushers in football at season's end in what should be another stingy Steelers defense that will be fun to play against for exactly zero quarterbacks in 2024.
9. Nick Cross, S, Colts
I haven't forgotten about Cross on film at the University of Maryland and his subsequent electric showing at the combine when he ran 4.37 with a 37-inch vertical and a 10-foot-10 broad at 6-0 and 212 pounds. In short, Cross is a sizable rocket at the safety position.
He's experienced such a strange start to his NFL career after the Colts selected him in the third round in 2022. As a rookie, he barely played. In 2023, Cross' time on the field was slowly ramped up as the season progressed. On essentially 25% of Indianapolis' defense snaps, Cross registered 39 tackles, one pick, two pass breakups, and a tackle for loss. Late in the season, it looked like how each was unfolding for the opposing offense slowed for him, and he could play without hesitation, thereby allowing his freaky athletic traits to take over.
He's now in his third season not only in the NFL but in the same, Gus Bradley-coordinated defense. And this is the year Cross becomes a household name for his ability to range from the deep middle, act as a quasi-linebacker and halt the run, and tackle reliably in space. He and Julian Blackmon will make plenty of plays as the full-time safety tandem for the Colts this season.
Do I think Cross earns All-Pro honors? No. But he'll completely shake those lingering "bust" mummers from his first year and a half as a professional.
8. Dorian Williams, LB, Bills
While it feels like three decades have elapsed in NFL time, it wasn't that long ago when Matt Milano was a mostly unknown, overeager, twitchy, fast off-ball linebacker who wasn't always in the correct position but got to said position at lightning speed.
It was under the tutelage of Sean McDermott, within the Bills defensive scheme, that Milano blossomed into an elite, All-Pro linebacker.
Williams has a physical makeup and on-field demeanor strikingly similar to Milano, the second-level defender he'll be directly replacing in Buffalo for most of the season. Plus, new defensive play-caller Bobby Babich was the Bills linebacker coach the past two seasons as Milano ascended the ranks of linebackers -- for being a young coach, Babich has quite an impressive track record of developing back-seven players in Buffalo.
Williams ran 4.49 out of Tulane in 2023 and that speed translated during his short audition -- he played around 20% of Buffalo's defensive snaps -- as a rookie. There were some missed tackles, and like Milano early in his Bills tenure, will probably be more from Williams in 2024. But they'll be outweighed by the electric plays he makes near or behind the line of scrimmage because of his athleticism and what should be a better understanding of his responsibilities in his second year in Buffalo's scheme.
7. Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Broncos
Do you remember how much Sean Payton adored third-down, pass-catching waterbug backs in New Orleans? Darren Sproles ring a bell? Besides him, the likes of Pierre Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Travaris Cadet, and Reggie Bush were low-key vital aspects of the Saints always-efficient offense.
In the screen game, on throws into the flat, or classic check downs, the utilization of a sudden running back with hands is absolutely part of how Payton wants to attack a defense.
And it was an undrafted runner out of Youngstown State, not Samaje Perine, who emerged as that reliable weapon in 2023 in Denver. Beyond averaging 5.4 yards per tote, McLaughlin caught 31 of 36 targets for 160 yards with a pair of scores. And the Broncos only drafted bulldozer Audric Estime in the fifth-round to add more power to the run game. Perine was released.
After a year of earning Payton's trust, I fully expect McLaughlin to receive a more sizable role in what should be a more vintage Payton offense with Bo Nix playing point guard at quarterback. If you drafted McLaughlin in your fantasy league, those PPR points will rack up like crazy this season.
6. Derick Hall, EDGE, Seahawks
The previous Seahawks regime thought highly of Hall, selecting him inside the Top 40 in the 2023 draft. He was one of the more consistent, strong, and explosive edge rushers in last year's class. After 31 pressures on 174 pass-rushing opportunities as a sophomore at Auburn, he pieced together back-to-back seasons with more than 40 pressures with a larger sample then had a 40-yard dash and vertical in the 94th and 92nd percentiles at nearly 6-3 and 254 pounds at the combine.
The rookie year was largely a disappointment. Only 11 pressures on 134 chances at the quarterback. Hall discovered pure strength and a quality get-off wasn't going to routinely beat even lesser NFL tackles.
This preseason, he looked more polished on the outside, and packed with more power -- his hands routinely moved blockers or dispatched them with ease en route to nine pressures on 38 pass-rushing snaps. With a better understanding of winning with finesse and a year to build more torque to his already chiseled frame, Hall is in for an effective Year 2 in Mike Macdonald's defense in the Pacific Northwest. He's too talented to be unproductive.
5. Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Richardson has an unparalleled combination of size, weight, pure speed, and arm talent in a league that features the likes of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert at the position.
And while I feel compelled to recognize his rawness, I feel it's equally as necessary to detail the work his head coach, Shane Steichen did with Herbert as a rookie and especially Jalen Hurts during his breakout campaigns in 2021 and 2022. This will be one of the most QB-friendly offenses in football. And while the Colts don't have in the barn the skill-position horses the Eagles did when Hurts went from run-only option to one of the more productive dual-threat quarterbacks in football, Steichen has first-hand experience extracting the upside from a mobile quarterback within his offense.
It won't always be pretty with Richardson, but when a Colts game ends, you'll check the stats and see 22-of-32 for 250 yards with 2 TDs, 1 INT and 70 yards rushing on eight carries with another score. Indianapolis won't feel they have an elite quarterback at the conclusion of the 2024 season, but they'll be feel content with the direction Richardson is headed under Steichen. The marriage here of uber-talent and schematic brilliance is exquisite.
4. Will Levis, QB, Titans
Levis is yet another intimidating athlete playing the quarterback position. As a rookie, he was essentially the Temu version of Josh Allen at times, going airborne as a scramble in hopes of moving the chains, and throwing repeatedly into tight windows with mixed results -- there was exactly zero fear in his eyes every game he played a rookie, and I loved that.
And the Titans did ev-er-y-thing to build an environment around Levis conducive to his growth. Drafted a left tackle early in the first round. Signed divisional rival Calvin Ridley at receiver. Added Gabe Davis from the Bills. Spent major dollars on the defense that finished 28th in EPA per play in 2023 in an attempt to keep Levis out of major holes in which he feels he needs to get the Titans out of with one throw.
Levis didn't fully work out before the draft, yet did post a 34-inch vertical and and a broad jump in the 95th percentile at the quarterback position. He has a sculpted nearly 6-4, 230-pound physique with a live arm capable of making just about every throw on the field from any platform.
This is the season -- along with C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence of course and the aforementioned Richardson -- that the quarterbacks make the entire AFC South much more captivating than the division has been in a long time.
3. Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills
This is supposed to be Dalton Kincaid, right? Well, yeah. Except after 81 catches as a rookie, I already kinda-sorta considered his breakout occurring a season ago, and I genuinely believe Shakir's will be bigger.
No, Shakir isn't going to catch 86.7% of his targets from Josh Allen this season -- that was high NFL-best rate a season ago -- but it'll be close. Let's not forgot how dynamic the Allen-Cole Beasley tandem was from 2019 through 2022. And Shakir should find himself in a similar slot-based role in his third campaign in Buffalo.
Now, Shakir isn't Beasley-quick, but he provides more after the catch. Much more. He averaged 7.0 yards after the catch per reception in 2023, the highest figure among all receivers who ran at least 70% of their routes from the slot and made more than 20 snags on the year. Some of that number is buoyed by the tremendous catch-and-run touchdown he had against the Jets with Sauce Gardner of all people in coverage, yet that 81-yard score speaks to his sneaky speed. He ran 4.43 at the 2022 combine.
And Shakir was steady too -- in his final 13 outings last year -- including the playoffs -- Shakir had 10 games with at least three grabs. It felt obvious that Allen's trust in Shakir grew as the season progressed. That rapport will continue to strengthen this season, and Shakir will become the low-key No. 1 target, particularly in key scenarios, for Allen in Buffalo's new-look offense that needs to "replace" 317 targets from 2023.
2. Braxton Jones, OT, Bears
Jones is probably the most inconspicuous starter on this Bears offense. He's a former fifth-round pick from Southern Utah and missed more than a month of his second season. When he had the plum position of left tackle in Chicago, he allowed 32 total pressures, 28 of which were classified as hurries of either Justin Fields or Tyson Bagent, and the former didn't help offensive linemen's pass-protection numbers given his affinity to hang onto the football and scramble into blocked defenders.
Myles Garrett and Rashan Gary gave Jones problems, other than that, he rocked on pass blocks and when asked to either set the edge or climb to the second level for Chicago's ground game.
Jones in for a monster Year 3 blocking for Caleb Williams in Shane Waldron's scheme.
At over 6-5 and probably close to 320 pounds with arm that stretch nearly 36 inches, Jones possesses a prototypical left tackle build and tested through the roof at the 2022 combine with a 10-yard split, 40-yard dash, and broad jump placing in the 77th percentile or higher among offensive tackle prospects at that pre-draft event since 1999.
With three years in the Bears strength and conditioning program and close to 1,800 NFL snaps on his resume, Jones, protecting the left side of a considerably more decisive quarterback, will emerge from relative obscurity as one of the best young left tackles in football. He's only 25 years old.
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
I know DK Metcalf has tweaked his diet. Fewer Skittles and other candy. And that change could be a subtle spark to even more of a production boost from the veteran wideout who's gone over 1,000 yards in three of the last four seasons with the Seahawks.
But its his former first-round teammate, Smith-Njigba is going to arrive on the scene as a borderline elite wideout in 2024. Tyler Lockett will still be part of the offense, yet as the season progresses, he'll be phased into the background simply because JSN is so uniquely talented.
We never got a seismic final season at Ohio State from Smith-Njigba because of an early-season league injury. As a 19-year-old sophomore, all he did was lead the Buckeyes in catches and receptions as part of a receiver room that featured Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
He forced 16 missed tackles on 80 receptions that season, demonstrating a special blend of acceleration, stop-and-start skill, and YAC niftiness. JSN also caught all seven of his contested-catches in that season. With new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, whom the Seahawks hired from down the street at the University of Washington, Seattle is going to be spread and throw it often.
With more space to operate than his rookie season, Smith-Njigba will elevate his game to 2021 Ohio State level and stake his claim as the biggest breakout star in the NFL.
