| Saints RB Chris Ivory will need to produce to take pressure off QB Drew Brees in Thursday night's crucial game vs. Atlanta. (US Presswire) |
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta (indoors, FieldTurf)
When: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. (NFL Network)
Spread: Falcons by 3½
2012 records: Saints -- 5-6 (1-2 NFC South); Falcons -- 10-1 (2-1 NFC South)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Nov. 11, 2012: Saints 31, Falcons 27 in the Superdome; Dec. 26, 2011: Saints 45, Falcons 16 in the Superdome. Series record: Falcons lead 45-41, but the Saints have won 11 of the last 13.
What matters: Running and stopping the run. The Saints aren’t totally out of the playoff picture if they lose, but to have a realistic shot, they would have to win their last four, including a tough trip to the New York Giants next Sunday. In other words, this is pretty close to a must-win game, and the path to victory in the Georgia Dome is on the ground. The Saints match up well with the Falcons because Atlanta has a lousy run defense, giving up 4.8 yards per carry. That’s tied for third-worst in the NFL. RB Chris Ivory kick-started New Orleans’ win in Week 10 with a 56-yard TD run, opening up more room for Drew Brees and the Saints receivers to operate. Conversely, the Saints formerly struggling run defense limited Michael Turner to 15 yards on 13 carries, a typical effort from the Falcons’ underperforming back. The Falcons ran 18 times and threw 51 times. If the Saints force a similar imbalance Thursday night, they can pull off the sweep.
Who matters: Ivory -- He’s a beast when he has room to run, possessing the best combination of speed, moves and power among Saints backs in the open field. Again, Brees and his receivers will do a lot more damage if the Falcons have to worry constantly about the ground game. Since being activated for the first time against Philadelphia, Ivory is averaging a team-best 5.8 yards on 33 carries. That’s nothing new. He also led the team with a 5.2 average in 2010. … TE Jimmy Graham -- He had a career-high 146 receiving yards on seven catches in the first meeting, including two TDs. Because of a lingering ankle problem and a case of the drops, Graham’s third year has not been as spectacular as his breakout second season, but he appears poised for a big finish. The Falcons could not cover him in New Orleans and should not fare better in Atlanta.
Key matchups: CBs Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson vs. Atlanta WRs Roddy White and Julius Jones. This is the Falcons’ biggest edge. Their tall, talented receiver tandem combined for 11 catches and 189 yards in the first meeting, but Greer made a huge play to save the game, deflecting a fourth-down pass for White in the end zone in the last two minutes. The Saints CBs are going to lose this battle more often than they win it Thursday. Greer simply is not playing as well as he did in his first three years in New Orleans, and Robinson is learning on the job in his first season as a full-times starter. But if they make plays at the right time, the Saints can survive. … Saints zone scheme vs. TE Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez found holes in the zone to the tune of 122 yards, 11 catches and two TDs in the first meeting. That can’t happen again. Roman Harper, who lined up as a hybrid safety/LB in the first meeting, needs to be more aware of him.
Injuries of note: OT Zach Strief is questionable after missing the last three games with a groin injury. The Saints have little depth in the secondary, with Isa Abdul-Quddus (concussion) out and Corey White (knee) questionable.
Inside stuff: All signs point to Strief playing. The Saints have only two other active tackles -- starting LT Jermon Bushrod and Will Robinson. Plus, Robinson said Friday that Strief was “good to go” and he (Robinson) would “play if needed.” It’s a huge difference. Strief is in his third year as a starter. Robinson, the fourth option at RT, went three years in between his first game (with Washington in 2009) and his second game with New Orleans after Bryce Harris went down with a broken leg last Sunday. Robinson was OK against San Francisco, but the Saints don’t want to press their luck.
Connections: Saints MLB Curtis Lofton played for the Falcons from 2008-11 and never missed a game, averaging 133 tackles his final three seasons. … The Falcons' second-string QB Luke McCown was in training camp with the Saints this year. … Jones and Saints RB Mark Ingram were teammates at Alabama in 2009 when Ingram won the Heisman Trophy and the Crimson Tide won the national championship.
Stats you should know: The biggest one is the Saints having won 11 of the last 13 in the series. The Falcons are sick of hearing about it and feel like they let the game in New Orleans get away. If the Saints complete the sweep, they will officially be in the Falcons’ heads. … Brees and Matt Ryan combined for 709 passing yards three weeks ago, with Ryan accounting for 411. … Teams are 2-0 on short weeks this year after playing San Francisco. Green Bay beat Chicago on a Thursday, and Chicago beat Minnesota on a Sunday after a Monday-nighter.
Bulletin board quote: “They’re like our little brothers. Deep down they know they can't mess with us even when we are having a down year." -- Saints LB Scott Shanle, who was inactive for the first game, to Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports after New Orleans beat Atlanta.
Looking ahead: If the Saints win, they will have some momentum and a long rest before facing Eli Manning and the Giants on Dec. 9. If they lose, the weight of a 5-7 record will make it awfully hard for them to win in New York.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Saints 27
Follow Saints reporter Guerry Smith on Twitter @CBSSaints.