The NFC South is the new NFC West. And that's not a good thing. The West is the NFL's toughest division these days, but it was just a few years ago when it served as the punching bag of the NFL, like the South now does.
With the Panthers-Eagles Monday night game pending, the NFC South has a 5-18-1 record outside the division with 16 non-division games remaining including Carolina's MNF affair.
It is very much in the realm of possibility for the South to challenge for title of the worst division ever.
| Worst. Division. Ever. | ||||||
| Year | Division | Out of Division Record | Win % | Point Differential | ||
| 2008 | NFC West | 10-30 | .250 | -372 | ||
| 2010 | NFC West | 12-28 | .325 | -322 | ||
| 2013 | AFC South | 12-28 | .325 | -318 | ||
| 2014 | NFC South | 5-18-1 | .229 | -157 | ||
With 16 games left, it would take a pretty putrid stretch for the NFC South to beat the 2008 NFC West’s point differential. That’s a -9.3 points per game average. The South is just at -6.54 right now.
But the record is what people really glare at, especially when a 7-9 team is hosting a division. And when it comes to their record, the South can definitely challenge for worst ever. The division is leading right now, with a pathetic .229 winning percentage and a delightfully perfect tie to really bring the room together.
| NFC South Down the Stretch | ||||||
| Team | Out of Division Record | Point Differential | Remaining Opponents Record | |||
| Saints | 2-4 | 5 | 20-17-1 | |||
| Panthers | 2-4-1 | -47 | 16-10 | |||
| Falcons | 0-6 | -74 | 26-11 | |||
| Bucs | 1-4 | -41 | 24-20-1 | |||
So much mediocrity stands out here. The Falcons are 3-6 and -- somehow -- a single game out of first place in this division. They won on Sunday and theoretically could hang around and make a run, but it’s borderline impossible to believe because of their out-of-division record and point differential. They’re a bad football team!
The Bucs have an easier path left, but they are also horrible. (That’s all the analysis necessary here, right?)
Carolina’s record is pending the Eagles game; the good news for them is a slew of in-division games left. The bad news is they’re not very good.
The Saints have the easiest path by far. And they suffered the worst loss on Sunday! New Orleans is the most trustworthy team and they get four games at home, but we saw them lose in the Superdome on Sunday against the 49ers. Drew Brees found Jimmy Graham a couple times and hit Brandin Cooks once too, but something about his game doesn't feel right. Once Mark Ingram started getting in a groove, Brees seemed to improve. And he had a few really impressive plays, but he feels more pressured than in years past.
Maybe New Orleans got hosed by a Graham OPI call and a Perrish Cox flop, but it was probably the right call. It's not like they didn't have a chance in overtime before coughing the ball up and letting Phil Dawson bang home the ugliest field goal you've ever seen.
7-9 feels like a stretch for New Orleans, but when you see how they played at times on Sunday it’s definitely not out of the question. Maybe they’ll even get revenge on the Seahawks by hosting them in a playoff game.
Seahawks Identity
Are those Seahawks finding their identity again? For all the whooping and hollering about their struggles this season, Seattle is still just two games back of the Cardinals with two to go against Arizona, who will likely be missing Carson Palmer for the stretch run.
Sunday felt like a throwback game for the Seahawks with their power run game, with Seattle piling up 350 rushing yards against the Giants. They averaged 7.8 yards per rush as a team.
This included a destructive run from Marshawn Lynch, who had four rushing scores on Sunday.
Please pray for Jameel McClain.
The offense is still limited at this point. Russell Wilson is running too much; he became the second NFL quarterback with three 100-yard rushing games in a single season on Sunday. Wilson is struggling in the pass game and he’s missing Golden Tate as well as Percy Harvin. No offense to Doug Baldwin but this team needs more weapons in the pass game.
The defense isn’t the same as last year, either. Earl Thomas recorded an impressive tip-drill interception Sunday, but Richard Sherman was struggling to cover rookie Odell Beckham at times.
It’s a top-five unit in yards per game and a top-10 unit in points per game, but Seattle isn’t generating pressure or creating turnovers the way it was last year. The good news is the season’s far from over. We’ve seen them get hot down the stretch, going 8-2 in December and on the last two seasons with Wilson under center.
Just three of their remaining seven games are at home, but given their opponents and current standing, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Seattle stole the NFC West from the Cardinals.
Of course nothing's surprising after a live hawk mascot attacks your toupee.
It's Too Easy
Julius Thomas picked a good year to become a free agent. The Broncos tight end is in the final year of his contract and he’s going to get paid. On Sunday, he recorded another pair of touchdown receptions, giving him 12 on the season and a share of a pretty impressive on-pace record.
Terrell Owens also posted 12 touchdowns in his first 9 games of 2004, both he and Moss were 30 at the time, oddly enough. But those guys were older and in new environments. Thomas is 26, in the final year of his deal and playing a premium position in the NFL.
There’s a reasonable chance we see a franchise-tag fight a la Jimmy Graham coming in this situation. There’s a guarantee we see a mammoth contract coming at some point.
Coach of the Year
Bruce Arians can solidify an honor he’s already in the running to win if he pulls off a divisional title with the Cardinals this year after losing Carson Palmer.
He told Peter King of NBC Sports on Sunday he thinks Drew Stanton can take Arizona to the Super Bowl. It’s a bold sentiment from a bold guy, but if we’re being realistic about things, it’s impossible to believe.
Even at 8-1 -- and Arians is just the third coach in Cards history to get the team there or better -- you can’t feel like you’re safe with Seattle breathing right behind you and the 49ers lurking as well.
Having a trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown helps. A lot.
But this isn’t the same team with Drew Stanton under center. If Arians can guide them to an NFC West title without Palmer there shouldn’t be a discussion about the COY award.
We Almost Lost Detroit
How do you judge the Lions? At 7-2 they own the top seed in the NFC North and they’re nipping on the heels of the Cardinals for the top conference seed too. But if the Packers and Lions played one game tomorrow, who would you take if your life depended on it? Hard to imagine many said Detroit even with the Lions victory earlier this season.
The Lions are a viable contender. Matthew Stafford has a cannon arm and has looked improved at times this year. Calvin Johnson is finally getting healthy. Ndamukong Suh’s anchoring a stout defensive line.
They can run the ball, as Cortland Finnegan found out Sunday.
But the Lions have losses to the Bills and Panthers, the former an excruciating production of football and the latter just a sloppy game on the road. They beat the Falcons and Saints by two points total and they needed another close game on Sunday to top the Dolphins at home.
It just feels like they're still a very up-and-down team, maintaining the maniacal approach of their former head coach without actually employing him. We buy the talent, but don't completely trust them to execute on maximizing it over the full course of a season yet.
Marc Trestman Job Security
Talked about this at length on the EOF Podcast Sunday … but is Marc Trestman going to get fired? The Bears are 3-6 and are the second team in NFL history to allow 50-plus points in back-to-back games. Rarified air.
It’s crazy to think about Trestman getting fired already, given he was hired just last season and managed to quickly turn Chicago into a high-powered offensive team. But this squad’s struggling despite the plethora of weapons at hand.
You shouldn’t be losing in the NBA with Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte on your squad, much less in the NFL.
Trestman’s losing and he’s losing in ugly fashion. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker’s in serious trouble with those 50-burgers that have been hung, even if he’s working with a less than stacked deck because of the defensive rebuild in Chicago.
The offense is a bigger problem though. It should be negating the shortcomings of the defense and it’s simply average despite the above-average talent. Things could get ugly in Chicago.
Poor Brock
Just let Brock Osweiler play, Peyton Manning. You big jerk.
That's So Raiders
It's somehow possible to keep this weekly "feature" going and not have it feel forced. God bless you, Oakland.
In today's installment, Derek Carr illegally passed the football to offensive lineman Khalif Barnes, only the penalty was declined because his offensive lineman fumbled the ball and the Broncos recovered.
Potent Quotables