Super Bowl 61 odds: How all 32 teams rank, with three contenders standing out as best bets

The day after Super Bowl 60, we took our first look at Super Bowl 61 odds and ranked all 32 teams in terms of betting value, comparing DraftKings odds with our expectations for each team this offseason and how they would shape up heading into the 2026 NFL season. A little more than three months later, offseason roster movement is mostly in the books for every team, and the NFL depth charts we see coming out of draft weekend will be pretty close to what we see in Week 1.

That makes this a great time to update our rankings based on what has actually happened during the offseason as well as more time to digest coaching changes that could have an impact on our rankings. This time around, we're going to look at FanDuel odds to win Super Bowl 61 and break our rankings into tiers while also taking a look at how each team's odds and rankings looked in early February.

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Super Bowl 61 betting value rankings

Tier 8: No thanks at any price

The Jets and Dolphins had pretty good drafts that could set them up to make some noise down the road, but neither should be serious contenders this year. The Cardinals drop from being mildly interesting to a bottom-tier team after not addressing the quarterback position and then using the third overall pick on a running back.

Tier 7: Not enough value to consider

The Cowboys, Raiders and Panthers saw their odds come down enough that they went from potential plays at value to no chance I'll be thinking about betting them. The Cowboys in particular are a strange case -- I love the Caleb Downs addition, but that defense was so bad last year that I can't understand why the market is all of a sudden bullish enough to give them better odds than teams like the Bears and Jaguars. In fact, they're within spitting distance of the Eagles at +1800, which I can't wrap my head around.

I am much more bearish on the Panthers now than I was right when the season ended, while the market went in the opposite direction, which drops Carolina from the midpoint of my rankings down near the end. I'd rather have the Saints, who haven't come down nearly as much but seem to have done a lot to support their developing quarterback this offseason.

I was too harsh putting the Steelers No. 31 initially and am probably still too low on them as the best team in this tier, but I can't get behind backing them at +7000 over anyone in the next tier.

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Tier 6: Favorites at awful prices

The odds will tell you that there's a pretty good chance one of these teams wins in the AFC, with the Ravens and Bills the favorites in the conference and the Patriots pretty close to the teams with the next lowest odds. It's asking a lot for the two favorites to navigate coaching changes and major issues on the roster outside of their star QBs to win in an underrated AFC field, which is why I have them so low. The Patriots will have a much tougher road this year, and I'm not sure the roster is good enough to justify putting them among the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC.

Tier 5: You could make a case

Here's where things start getting interesting for me. I like the Bucs' additions on defense and think they have enough on offense to be the clear favorites in the division, and with the gap closing between them and the Saints and Panthers in this market, I'm more willing to play them. The Colts were super interesting to me heading into the offseason at +6000 considering how well they played in the first half, but I don't think they did nearly enough to justify the odds coming down enough to put them over the Bucs.

The Titans are the longshot I could consider playing with the potential of Cam Ward to make a Year 2 jump and the roster and coaching staff getting notable upgrades. The Commanders aren't as good a value as we had them in February, and I haven't been as impressed with their offseason.

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Tier 4: Not quite sleepers

It wouldn't surprise me to see any or all of these teams in the playoffs come January, and I think the Bengals are in a much stronger place now with their upgraded defense. But I just can't get to making any of them contenders for me, and I'd rather take a swing at a longshot in the next tier.

Tier 3: Deep sleepers

I love the coaching hire for the Falcons, but I'm not sure they did enough in the offseason to justify putting them any higher than this. The Giants had a huge coaching upgrade but aren't getting enough credit for a great offseason that included landing upgrades on both sides of the ball, especially at good value in the draft. I said that if the Vikings landed a legit QB you could put them in the top five, and I feel like I'm probably ranking them a little too low here, but I don't have any team longer than +2500 higher than Minnesota. If I'm making one lottery ticket play, it'll be the Vikings.

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Tier 2: The contenders

Even with liking the Vikings, I have all three NFC North teams higher on my list, along with three AFC West teams and the two NFC West favorites. Clearly something is going to have to change as they all fight for the No. 1 seed in both conferences, but the coaching continuity and roster quality of those teams makes it hard to drop any of them outside the top 10.

I've dropped the Rams from my No. 1 team, when they were co-favorites with the Seahawks, down to No. 9 as the +700 favorite. Back in February, I said I thought the Rams should be +600 and the Seahawks +650, and while the Rams added two impact cornerbacks, they did virtually nothing to help themselves this year otherwise, using the No. 13 overall pick on a quarterback. They're going to be a stay-away for me, but I can't drop them too low.

Even with the Packers' odds coming down, I've decided I'd rather have the Bears and Lions at their odds, and I think it's probably pretty close with the Vikings. It's going to be hard for me to bet any of those teams, but if you can guess which one pulls ahead by the midpoint of the season, you're going to have great value. My lean would be to the Lions with their last-place schedule.

I'm starting to buy into the Chargers hype with the upgrade to Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator and the moves they've made this offseason. Let's hope they can keep both tackles on the field this year and give Justin Herbert a chance to make a run for the No. 1 seed. The odds value is better with the Jaguars, who are getting no respect after how well they played last year, and the Broncos, the No. 1 seed that looks just as good this year.

Tier 1: The best bets

The Eagles move up with the significant drop in odds, which is likely tied to the expected trade of A.J. Brown. They added a lot of depth at receiver and tight end this offseason, and we'll see if new OC Sean Mannion has what it takes to elevate the unit back to previous heights. I have no questions about their defense or that of the Seahawks, who are a fantastic value at +1000 for me even if I'm worried about the OC change.

The top value for me has to be the Chiefs, who should have a healthy Patrick Mahomes in January and an upgraded rushing attack to lean on otherwise. The defense suffered losses in the secondary but did add the best corner in the draft along with a couple of potential impact players up front. When I look at the odds board, I see the Chiefs at +1600 as a ticket I'm going to love having down the stretch, much more so than any other potential bet at this point of the offseason.