The Houston Texans will try to dethrone the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs when they meet in a 2025 NFL Divisional Round matchup on Saturday. Houston advanced in the 2025 NFL playoff bracket with a 32-12 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, while Kansas City is coming off a first-round bye. The Texans (10-7), who won the AFC South, are 5-4 on the road this season. The Chiefs (15-2), who won their ninth consecutive AFC West crown, are 8-0 on their home field. The latest Chiefs vs. Texans forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-teens.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Texans vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine Consensus, up one from the opener, while the over/under for total points scored is 41.5. Before making any Texans vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model, as well as everything else that SportsLine has to help you crush your NFL picks.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL playoffs on a 31-15 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, a stunning 67% success rate. Longer term, it is on a 211-143 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 65-36 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
In addition to the model picks for this game, you can get AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and everything else you need to crush your NFL Wild Card Weekend bets. Go to SportsLine now to see it all.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Chiefs and just locked in its NFL picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Chiefs vs. Texans:
- Texans vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -8.5
- Texans vs. Chiefs over/under: 41.5 points
- Texans vs. Chiefs money line: Texans +362, Chiefs -474
- HOU: Texans are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games
- KC: Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- Texans vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Texans vs. Chiefs streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Chiefs can cover
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 392 of 581 passes (67.5%) for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and a rating of 93.5. He also carried 58 times for 307 yards (5.3 average) and two touchdowns. In last month's win over the Texans, he completed 28 of 41 passes (68.3%) for 260 yards and one touchdown. He also carried five times for 33 yards and a score.
Tight end Travis Kelce is his favorite target. In 16 games, he caught 97 passes for 823 yards (8.5 average) and three touchdowns. He had nine explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 38, with 340 yards after the catch and 46 first-down conversions. See which side to pick here.
Why the Texans can cover
Second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 22 of 33 passes (66.7%) for 282 yards and one touchdown with one interception in last week's Wild Card win over the Chargers. During the regular season, Stroud completed 63.2% of his passes for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and a rating of 87.0. He also carried 52 times for 233 yards, including two explosive runs of 20 yards or more, with a long of 25.
The rushing attack is powered by veteran running back Joe Mixon. In the win over the Chargers, he carried 25 times for 106 yards (4.2 average) and one touchdown. In 14 regular-season games, he carried 245 times for 1,016 yards (4.1 average) and 11 touchdowns. He had eight explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 59, with 52 first-down conversions. Including the postseason, he has surpassed the 100-yard mark in eight games in 2024-25. See which side to pick here.
How to make Texans vs. Chiefs picks
The model is going over the total, calling for 45 total points, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the NFL model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Texans vs. Chiefs on Saturday, and which side of the spread cashes more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out, and don't forget to unlock AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and all the other tools to crush your picks at SportsLine.
