Vikings crush Bears, Falcons avoid disaster vs. Raiders; Lions' injury woes; predicting CFP upsets

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🏈 Good morning to all, but especially to ...

THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS AND (RELUCTANTLY) THE ATLANTA FALCONS

It was far from pretty for long stretches, but the Vikings and Falcons both got wins last night to keep pace in their respective playoff races.

The Vikings pulled away from the Bears, 30-12. Justin Jefferson got the party started with an early touchdown catch from Sam Darnold and followed the score by shouting out Randy Moss, who is battling cancer. (Moss was also honored pregame.) Minnesota racked up 114 yards on the ground, with both Aaron Jones and Cam Akers scoring, and the defense was unrelenting.

At 12-2 this season, Minnesota is in the thick of things in the NFC North, just one game behind the Lions, as well as for the NFC's No. 1 seed.

Atlanta is only in this section because I believe there's no such thing as a bad win. But this is as close as it gets. Entering on a four-game losing streak, the Falcons barely held on, 15-9, against the Raiders. Kirk Cousins finally threw a touchdown pass, but he struggled mightily outside of that. The Raiders, who have now lost 10 straight and are on third-string quarterback Desmond Ridder, actually drove into Hail Mary range, but two attempts into the end zone fell incomplete. Bijan Robinson had 135 yards total to carry an otherwise unsightly offense.

Cousins just doesn't look like his former self. He looks like a 36-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles, which is exactly what he is. He can't move, he can't drive the ball, and Atlanta's offense can't do anything creative as a result. Atlanta remains a game back of Tampa Bay in the NFC South, but even Raheem Morris admitted the Falcons need better quarterback play.

👍 Honorable mentions

• NBA trade season (unofficially) opened Sunday, and Sam Quinn has every player who could be on the move. Yes, LeBron James is on it.
• Gregg Popovich shared a health update for the first time since he suffered a stroke. There remains no timetable for his return.
• Geno Smith got good news on his knee injury.
• Mike Axisa compared the futures of the Mets and Yankees in the wake of the Juan Soto signing.
• The Orioles signed Tomoyuki Sugano.
• Here's the AP All-America team, with Travis Hunter leading the way.
• Jalen Milroe is expected to declare for the NFL Draft, though a final decision will come after Alabama's bowl game.
• Drew Allar will return to Penn State next season, a huge boost for the Nittany Lions.
• John Mateer is transferring, and he immediately became No. 1 in the portal rankings.
• Mike Norvell is giving $4.5 million of his salary to Florida State's NIL fund.
• James Herbert detailed the rise of Ryan Dunn.
• The SEC has eight teams in the men's basketball AP Top 25, including five in the top seven. Here's the Coaches Poll.
• UCLA remains atop the women's basketball AP Top 25.
• Will Billy Wagner make the Hall of Fame in his his last shot?
• The Storm and Dream will face each other in Vancouver, the WNBA's first game outside the United States.

🏈 And not such a good morning for ...

THE DETROIT LIONS

The hits kept coming for the Lions on Monday.

• Star running back David Montgomery is done for the season with an MCL sprain
• Standout defensive tackle Alim McNeill is done for the season with a torn ACL.
• Starting cornerback Carlton Davis is out indefinitely with a broken jaw.

Montgomery is the physical, between-the-tackle complement to Jahmyr Gibbs, McNeill not only defends the run superbly but generates penetration against the pass on the interior, and Davis is the top man coverage corner for a team that plays the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL.

All three are considerable losses, but I'm worried the McNeill and Davis injuries might be straws that break the camel's (lion's?) back. After all, you could nearly build a starting lineup of Detroit's injured defenders.

• DL: Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, John Cominsky, Marcus Davenport
• LB: Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez
• DB: Carlton Davis, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Ifeatu Melifonwu
  

There's still lots of talent and terrific coaching on this team, and the culture under Dan Campbell is second to none, but at some point, the X's and O's can't cover for the Jimmys and Joes, especially at a Super Bowl level. The Lions have their work cut out for them.

👎 Not so honorable mentions

• Joel Embiid (sinus fracture) will miss at least a week.
• Trevon Diggs will have season-ending knee surgery.
• Jerod Mayo backtracked again.
• Jerry Rice criticized Deebo Samuel.
• The 49ers suspended De'Vondre Campbell the final three games of the season.
• Dennis Dodd has proposals on how to fix the broken bowl system.
• Penn State backup quarterback Beau Pribula is transferring, showing the major difficulties, timing-wise, CFP teams face with the transfer portal.
• Folarin Balogun (shoulder) will miss four months.

🏈 NFL playoff picture: AFC teams nearly set, NFC scrambled

Week 15 did a lot to clear up the AFC playoff picture. Here are the standings of the teams still alive:

1. Chiefs (13-1, clinched AFC West)
2. Bills (11-3, clinched AFC East)
3. Steelers (10-4, clinched playoff berth, lead AFC North)
4. Texans (9-5, clinched AFC South)
5. Ravens (9-5)
6. Broncos (9-5)
7. Chargers (8-6)
8. Colts (6-8)
9. Dolphins (6-8)
10. Bengals (6-8)

Neither the Colts, Dolphins nor Bengals have more than a 7% chance to make the postseason, according to SportsLine. So, in all likelihood, the only thing up for grabs over the next three weeks is seeding among the top seven.

Unlike the AFC, the NFC playoff picture got tighter in Week 15.

1. Lions (12-2, clinched playoff berth, lead NFC North)
2. Eagles (12-2, clinched playoff berth, lead NFC East)
3. Rams (8-6, lead NFC West)
4. Buccaneers (8-6, lead NFC South)
5. Vikings (12-2, clinched playoff berth)
6. Packers (10-4)
7. Commanders (9-5)
8. Seahawks (8-6)
9. Falcons (7-7)
10. Cardinals (7-7)
11. 49ers (6-8)
12. Cowboys (6-8)
13. Saints (5-9)

Those last three teams can probably be counted out, according to SportsLine projections, but the top 10 is a wild ride.

• Detroit leads Philadelphia for the No. 1 seed thanks to a superior conference record, but there's no room for error.
• The NFC West is nip and tuck, with divisional games in Week 17 (Cardinals-Rams) and Week 18 (49ers-Cardinals and Seahawks-Rams) looming large.
• The Falcons remain desperate for a Buccaneers slip-up; Atlanta would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker if the teams finish with identical records.
• The Commanders' lead for the final wild card spot has shrunk as the Buccaneers, Rams and Seahawks (before Sunday night) have surged.

Exciting (and nervous) times await!

🏈 Predicting College Football Playoff upsets

With NFL Week 15 in the books, the first round of the College Football Playoff is up next. Hosts Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State are significant favorites, but Shehan Jeyarajah ranked all four games in terms of upset likelihood, and his top candidate is ...

• Jeyarajah: "(6) Penn State (-8.5) vs. (11) SMU -- SMU has far more offensive playmakers heading into the matchup, headlined by quarterback Kevin Jennings (3,050 yards passing, 379 yards rushing 27 TDs). Running back Brashard Smith is a threat both as a runner and pass-catcher as a converted receiver, while eight total players on the roster posted at least 275 yards receiving. Five players have at least four receiving touchdowns, and that doesn't even count leading receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. ... The Nittany Lions need the game to stay low-scoring and defense-first."

Much has been made about the CFP format, and changes could be on the way. Brandon Marcello has what's next, including potential changes in seeding, automatic bids and field size.

🏈 Dave Clawson steps down at Wake Forest

Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson stepped down from his role on Monday, a surprise decision shortly into the Demon Deacons' offseason. Clawson, 57, will remain with the university as a special advisor to athletic director John Currie.

• In a statement, Clawson said "After completing my 25th season as a head coach and 36th-straight in college football, the timing is right for me and my family to step away into this new role within Wake Forest University."
• Clawson's Demon Deacons were coming off their second consecutive 4-8 campaign. Prior to that, Clawson led them to seven straight bowl appearances, a school record. That stretch included an ACC Championship Game appearance in 2021, the same season he won ACC Coach of the Year.
• Overall, Clawson finishes 67-69 (32-55) in Winston-Salem.

Of the seven FBS programs in North Carolina, five will have a new coach next season. North Carolina (Mack Brown to Bill Belichick) is the most notable change, but Appalachian State, Charlotte and East Carolina also have fresh faces in charge. The Demon Deacons must move quickly, Shehan Jeyarajah writes.

📺 What we're watching Tuesday

🏀 Seton Hall vs. No. 5 LSU (W), 6 p.m. on FS1
🏀 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Florida (M), 7 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 No. 25 Clemson at South Carolina (M), 7 p.m. on SEC Network
🏀 NBA Cup final: Bucks vs. Thunder, 8:30 p.m. on ABC
🏀 Iowa State vs. No. 4 UConn (W), 8:30 p.m. on FS1
🏈 Frisco Bowl: No. 25 Memphis vs. West Virginia, 9 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 20 Michigan (W), 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2