Vikings Game Preview: Week 1 vs. Jaguars

The Vikings open the season against the visiting Jaguars.

By Joe Oberle

Sep 6, 2012 at 10:49 am ET • 4 min read

Vikings fans hope quarterback Christian Ponder make huge strides after an inconsistent rookie season last year. (US Presswire)

Jaguars at Vikings -- Week 1

Where: Mall of America Field, Metrodome (turf, indoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Spread: Vikings by 4

2011 records -- Vikings (3-13); Jaguars (5-11)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Nov. 23, 2008: Vikings 30, Jaguars 12; November 28, 2004: Vikings 27, Jaguars 16. Series record: Vikings hold a 3-1 advantage.

What matters: As far as Super Bowl implications are concerned, not a lot matters here as two rebuilding teams with young quarterbacks face off in the season opener. The Vikings have made a concerted effort to get younger, and at several positions -- secondary and offensive line -- that is a step in the right direction, but no guarantee of success. They have improved at some skill positions, adding TE John Carlson and WR Jerome Simpson, but Simpson is not available Sunday because he has been suspended. The offense should be able to move the ball against a Jaguars defense that allowed an average of 374.7 yards in the preseason. But the key will be to score TDs -- something the Vikings offense struggled with in the preseason. The Vikings younger interior defense -- third-year MLB Jasper Brinkley, second-year SS Mistral Raymond and rookie FS Harrison Smith -- will be learning on the fly and relying on the elite pass rushing front of DE Jared Allen and DT Kevin Williams to keep the opposing quarterback rattled and making bad decisions. If the game isn’t too big for the younger players, the Vikings should have the edge.

Who matters: This game comes down to the play of two second-year quarterbacks who had subpar seasons in 2011. QB Christian Ponder needs to take command of the offense that has more weapons for him this season. WR Percy Harvin is solid in the slot and outside, TE Kyle Rudolph is a big target inside and RB Toby Gerhart will pound out some tough yardage until Adrian Peterson is completely healthy. Ponder (13 TD passes, 13 INTs, 70.1 rating in 2011) must outplay Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert (12 TDs, 11 INTs, 65.4 rating), who was taken two spots ahead of him in the 2011 draft and started four more games last season. The quarterback in better command of his offense will come out on top.

Key matchups: For Ponder to be successful, rookie LT Matt Kalil will have to keep him clean, and Kalil’s first regular-season test comes against another rookie, RDE Andre Branch. Branch is a preferable first matchup for Kalil when you think that the Bears’ Julius Peppers and the Niners’ Justin Smith are in his future, but Branch averaged 17.5 sacks per season in college. Kalil’s ability to stop him will say a lot about the outcome of this game and how the season will go for the Vikings.

Injuries of note: The two marquee running backs in this game will likely be playing supporting roles as Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is coming off a repaired ACL and MCL in his left knee and Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew just got into camp this week due to a contract squabble. Both are expected to see some action, but it will be limited and not likely very impactful until, perhaps, the game is on the line.

Inside stuff: While much of the pregame attention will focus on the game-time decision of Peterson’s availability, the Vikings still claim to be a run-first offense, so the Jaguars had better game plan for Gerhart. He rushed for 4.6 average in three preseason games, and his backup, Matt Asiata, rushed for 5.8 yards per carry. Gerhart could pound on the defense and then give way to a rested and more-than-ready Peterson when the defense is tired.

Connections: The Vikings and Jaguars don’t have any players who’ve switched teams in recent years, but the Jaguars do have a tendency to hire former Vikings players as coaches. First-year coach Mike Mularkey (who coached with Vikings OC Bill Musgrave in Atlanta) played tight end for the Vikings from 1983-88, and he replaced Jack Del Rio, who was a Vikings linebacker from 1992-95. In addition, former Vikings tight end and head coach Mike Tice (now in Chicago) worked for Del Rio as the assistant head coach of the Jaguars from 2007-2009.

Stat you should know: The Vikings tied for the least number of interceptions last season with eight and actually set an NFL record by going nine consecutive games without having one. But the 2012 secondary is quite different looking than at the end of last season and should be improved. Regardless, Gabbert and rookie WR Justin Blackmon will test them through the air early and often.

Record watch: Peterson was injured in the second-to-last game of the season in 2011. He was only 67 yards away from breaking Robert Smith’s team career rushing record (1,411 yards). If he does get the green light to play, that 12-year old mark could go down.

Looking ahead: The Vikings open at home for the first time since 2007 and can't afford to drop this game or next week’s against the Colts in Indianapolis. The schedule stiffens with the next two games against the 49ers and in Detroit, so the Vikings need a 2-0 start or risk facing the prospect of another very long season.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Jaguars 17