The 12-2 Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most pleasant surprises in all the NFL this season. And in a few months, no one should be surprised by the contract quarterback Sam Darnold will be able to fetch.
Depending on how this season ends and how free agency shakes out, Darnold could command the biggest free-agent quarterback contract in the league this March. And while the Vikings are focused on the 2024 season, there's leaguewide belief that Minnesota hopes it can retain Darnold for the future.
The Vikings drafted quarterback J.J. McCarthy 10th overall in April's draft with the intention of making him the future of the franchise. That remains the case, sources say, even after McCarthy underwent preseason meniscus surgery that took him out for the entire 2024 season.
But the play of Darnold can't be ignored within the organization. The former No. 3 overall pick on a one-year contract has the Vikings in the mix for the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round bye.
"It could wind up being a Jordan Love-type situation," one AFC executive said this week.
To be sure, the Vikings have repeated publicly that their efforts are on this season. That was echoed again when Minnesota signed Daniel Jones to its practice squad last month. Minnesota only has one quarterback under contract for 2025 in McCarthy, and the Jones signing was no indication of either Darnold returning or a concern over McCarthy's recovery.
Darnold is completing more than 67% of his passes while tossing 29 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. He has engineered four game-winning drives this season as he leads the eighth-best scoring offense in the league with head coach and play-caller Kevin O'Connell. His 104.9 passer rating is fourth-best in the league this year -- by far the best of his seven-year career -- and he's one win away from tying the 13 wins he earned in all three seasons with the Jets.
Darnold came to Minnesota after one year as Brock Purdy's backup in San Francisco, brought on as insurance for the 49ers in case Purdy's elbow had not fully recovered from offseason surgery. Darnold hardly saw any game action, and in March he signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Vikings to potentially be their starter after Kirk Cousins left in free agency.
The Vikings drafted McCarthy but listed Darnold as QB1 to begin preseason. Before the competition could truly shake out, McCarthy underwent season-ending surgery and Darnold won the job by default. Now he may be earning it for 2025 on merit.
"I'm really stuck in the moment. I think that's the best way to approach that, to just be where my feet are," Darnold told ESPN recently.
Darnold, 27, could earn a contract that would pay more than $25 million per year, according to multiple league sources. How he finishes this year will help determine that number, which could wind up being outside of Minnesota's price range.
The Vikings are estimated to have more than $70 million in cap space next year, and they could always make more or negotiate a deal with Darnold to comfortably fit him in for next season and beyond.
Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are the only quarterbacks in this upcoming draft class considered to be potential Week 1 starters. There's also a weak free-agent class, especially if Russell Wilson opts to sign back with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
One source said if Darnold does leave Minnesota, he'll be selective about his next stop, hoping to avoid a bad situation like the one he got drafted into with the Jets or traded to in Carolina.
What coaches get hired where in this cycle could also impact Darnold. If a team needing a quarterback has a head coach whose system would fit Darnold, that could become an option that, at least currently, is not one.
And if the Vikings keep Darnold, the organization will have to work through that with McCarthy. There was never a guarantee McCarthy would be the Week 1 starter in 2024, and his injury plus Darnold's play could be reasonable explanations for why the Vikings would continue to roll with the veteran as McCarthy continues to sit. But that's a situation the team would have to massage in the offseason.
There's also a realistic scenario where Darnold leaves in free agency and the Vikings sign Jones. He's been on the practice squad the last few weeks, opting to stay in Minnesota as more than one team has inquired about his availability recently.
But many of those questions can and will be answered with the final three games of the regular season plus the postseason. Until that time, the Vikings are focused on the now.
