The 2024 NFL Draft class of first-round quarterbacks featured six passers in the first 12 picks, the first time that has ever happened in NFL history. So yeah, there's plenty of hype for this year's rookie class at the position.
Let's look back on these quarterbacks as prospects, pinpoint what they must improve, how their strengths can be maximized, and formulate a projection for their rookie seasons factoring in their supporting casts.
(Because no one expects Michael Penix Jr. to play this season with the Falcons given the presence of Kirk Cousins, I've left the fourth quarterback selected out of the mix in this article).
Caleb Williams (Bears)
Supporting cast
What more can I say about the Bears supporting cast, beyond the well-documented opinion that Williams has potentially landed in the best situation around him for a rookie No. 1 overall pick in league history? That statement alone speaks volumes for the environment Williams has walked into with the Bears.
Chicago means business. The ink is still drying on the four-year, $110 million extension D.J. Moore signed in late July. The somehow still 27-year-old finished sixth in receiving yards in 2023, and the advanced stats were stellar too. His 16 forced missed tackles were 11th in football, and only Drake London, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans had more than his 15 contested-catch wins. Moore is a clear-cut No. 1 weapon who specializes after the catch.
As the draft neared, it felt like Rome Odunze would be long gone by the time the Bears were on the clock at No. 9 overall -- his buzz was almost palpable. The JC Latham pick and especially the Michael Penix selection at No. 8 by the Falcons led to a surprisingly mini tumble for the University of Washington receiver, and Chicago made its pick faster than the Cubs fly the W after a victory at Wrigley.
Oh yeah, and before all this, Ryan Poles swung a trade for savvy veteran route connoisseur Keenan Allen, a receiver who's career can be marked by two things -- steady, high-level productivity and injuries. In 13 games last year, Allen had over 1,200 yards with seven scores and caught a ridiculous 108 passes.
What I love most specifically about Williams' receiver group is they have an underneath winner (Allen), an intermediate winner (Moore) and a downfield winner (Odunze). Plus, Cole Kmet has emerged as a fixture of that class of tight ends right below the elite tier at the position. Only six tight ends caught more passes than him a season ago.
Up front, the Bears have very slowly but surely built sturdy offensive line. It'd be hard to agree with that, given Justin Fields' 10.6% sack rate. Yet, it's now understood that sacks are much more of a quarterback stat than we ever believed in the past. In his 143 attempts as Fields' fill-in last year, rookie undrafted free agent Tyson Bagent had a low sack rate of just 3.4%. Chicago traded for Bills utility offensive lineman Ryan Bates to play his most natural position, center, and the other four starters from 2023 return. Left tackle Braxton Jones has the physical goods to be a Pro Bowler. As does Darnell Wright. Don't sleep on left guard Teven Jenkins, either. He plays with tenacity and balance inside.
Improving his weaknesses
Williams' relatively "down" 2023 made room for critics as he entered the NFL. The season before, criticism was essentially impossible even from the more negative analysts.
It felt like Williams, who seemingly had mastered improvisational to a Mahomes-Allen degree in his first year with the Trojans, tried to do too much to follow the Heisman-winning season. His pressure-to-sack rate jumped from a reasonably low 15% to a concerning 23.2%. His turnover-worthy play rate also increased from 1.6% to 3.6%.
There's a legitimate balancing act needed when you have Williams' natural creativity, twitch, and live and accurate arm. And it may -- see: probably -- will take time to find the right blend of surgical pocket-passing and ad-libbing outside of the intended structure of the play.
Strengthening his strengths
I feel I'm supposed to wax poetic about Williams' off-script brilliance here. And that absolutely is a hallmark of his game. He possesses just enough athleticism to evade most NFL defenders, and the awareness and arm talent needed to get the ball to his intended target while on the run, in full streetball mode.
But in evaluating Williams in college it was clear -- the dude is a precise operator inside the pocket. In fact, Williams was one of six qualifying quarterbacks to go over 70% completion at more than 9.0 yards per attempt inside the pocket across the past two seasons.
Right when Williams feels locked into distributing the football between the tackles, he can lean on his athletic smoothness to make a spectacular play outside the pocket.
Season outlook
Pressure will be Williams' biggest obstacle in 2024. And I don't necessarily mean pressure from edge rushers, defensive tackles and blitzing cornerbacks. I mean, meeting the immense hype in Chicago for a franchise that has been starved for a franchise quarterback for 40-plus years, but it hasn't been because of a lack of trying.
Heck, Williams is the third first-round quarterback the Bears have picked since 2017.
With Moore, Allen, Odunze, and Kmet, he has ample receiving weaponry around him. After what I assume will be an occasional hiccup as he tests the limits of his creativity and tight-window passing capability, Williams should settle into his role as the most dynamic passer Chicago has had in a very long time. I expect an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year type season.
Jayden Daniels (Commanders)
Supporting cast
For a club clearly rebuilding, the Commanders have done a marvelous job constructing a respectable albeit unspectacular group around their first-year quarterback. New GM Adam Peters inherited budding superstar Terry McLaurin and 2022 first-round pick Jahan Dotson.
Peters picked the sudden Luke McCaffrey, who proved capable of stretching defenses vertically in his long collegiate career, in the third round. The rest of the receiver room is mostly unproven. At tight end, the vet-rookie duo of Zach Ertz and scintillating athletic Ben Sinnott has spectacular promise. The running back room features a fun combination of complementary skills in Brian Robinson Jr. and still-not-30 veteran Austin Ekeler.
Daniels' offensive line isn't completely solidified -- and I'm worried about Cornelius Lucas at left tackle. But at right guard, Sam Cosmi may be the best young player at his position. The rest of the group comes with question marks but plenty of experience. Washington's blocking unit is probably one offseason away from being even a mediocre group.
Improving his weaknesses
Daniels was, of course, ridiculous during his Heisman Trophy season. What protrudes as a negative is his propensity to take sacks and sizable hits in the open field when he's running like a gazelle away from a pack of lions.
His 20.1% pressure-to-sack rate in 2023 was rather large. The season before, his first in the SEC at LSU, was a gargantuan 30.1%, an almost unheard of rate for an eventual NFL quarterback, especially one selected at No. 2 overall.
Now, Daniels' average time to throw decreased incrementally in each of final three collegiate seasons, but getting the ball out of his hands quickly is still a facet of his game that must improve at the next level. While he's plenty athletic enough to run away from most NFL defenders, he doesn't have the body type to withstand large hits in the pocket or especially when he's scampering at full speed in the open field.
Strengthening his strengths
Daniels is a big-play in a bottle. Whether it be hitting the accelerators as a scrambler and breaking off a 50-plus yard run -- he's that fast -- or feathering a long ball between defenders, Daniels' game and rise to college football's most coveted hardware is centered around the splash play.
In 2023, his big-time throw rate was a colossal 8.4%. While not completely unprecedented, in the SEC, it's huge. For context, Joe Burrow's big-time throw rate was 6.5% in his legendary 2019 with the Tigers.
For as much as the Washington offense needs to provide quick and easy throws for Daniels, and Daniels himself needs to pull the trigger on those when they're available, the Commanders can't place too many reins on their rookie quarterback who had two collegiate seasons with an average depth of target over 10 yards, one of which being 2023 at LSU.
Season outlook
The Commanders are trying to jump start their entire organizational rebuild, and the club isn't bereft of talent on paper. Is this a group that should be serious NFC contenders in 2024? No. Could Daniels be the catalyst in some high-scoring victories? Probably.
He has an underrated arm and overall arm talent to make throws when the pass rush doesn't allow his footwork to be perfect. Daniels can carry the Commanders at times. Daniels' tendency to take hits and sacks concerns me, particularly behind the offensive line he's been afforded.
Don't be surprised if he has splashy games and some outings where a blitz-happy defensive coordinator bamboozles him. The volume will likely be there for Daniels. Washington needs its offense to light it up most weeks. The future will look bright after what is a mostly positive rookie season for the No. 2 overall pick.
Drake Maye (Patriots)
Supporting cast
The Patriots enter the season as the favorites to hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. It's Year 1 without Bill Belichick. While new coach Jerod Mayo and GM Eliot Wolf did a marvelous job retaining most of the franchise's capable veterans, this roster is light years away from where it was six seasons ago when the Patriots won the last Super Bowl of the Tom Brady era.
New England will rely upon second-year lightning bug Pop Douglas in the slot, longtime admirable tight end Hunter Henry, and then Kendrick Bourne and two rookies -- Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker -- as pass-catching options. There's promise there, but it'll likely be at least a year before said promise is realized.
And then there's the offensive line. Chuks Okorafor was best as swing tackle with the Steelers before signing in New England, and former stunning first-round pick Cole Strange has yet to meet expectations Belichick clearly had for him. Michael Onwenu is a rock at right tackle, and second-year pro Sidy Sow has the athletic prowess to eventually become a viable blocker. But his rookie season was low-end.
Maye does not find himself with a supporting cast that can elevate him in Year 1.
Improving his weaknesses
Maye is such a fascinating watch on film. He'll have a magnificent throw through the tiniest window across and down the field on one play, then a rocket thrown directly to a linebacker clearly in front of his intended target.
Now, that wasn't a major problem at North Carolina. Maye wasn't an interception machine, as he only threw 16 of them across nearly 950 attempts in his final two seasons with the Tar Heels. It's just that right when you're seemingly sure Maye is the next Justin Herbert, the "what was that?" type play pops up.
Lastly, and this isn't quantifiable: North Carolina ran a very RPO-heavy, spread offense without loads of pre-snap checks for Maye. Lots of four verticals that allowed him to showcase his electric arm. Now he's joins an offense with old-school West Coast Offense advocate Alex Van Pelt as his coordinator. In short, it'll probably take Maye plenty of time to acclimate to what's needed from an NFL quarterback from a mental processing perspective.
Strengthening his strengths
Maye is a hefty dude with some athletic twitch and a hose. There's not a throw he's afraid to make, and that courage is justified. Maye can really spin it.
He managed a career 8.1% big-time throw rate at North Carolina, a seismic number for a quarterback who threw nearly 1,100 passes in college. Maye wants to and will push the football down the field, and his accuracy there is usually pinpoint. If and when he plays in Year 1, the Patriots can't keep Maye under wraps too much. Let him breathe in the offense, because he has the reasonably rare talent needed to threaten NFL defenses deep.
Season outlook
We aren't even sure Maye wins the job out of Patriots camp. In fact, it'll be a surprise if steady journeyman Jacoby Brissett, who comes with ties to Van Pelt, doesn't take the first regular-season snap for New England in September.
Do I think Maye sits the entire season? Absolutely not. Those days are all but officially over for first-round picks at the quarterback. New England will likely stick around early because of its defense. But when the offense can't sustain scoring, it'd be sensible to give Maye an opportunity. And as long as we see flashes -- and I expect them to occur -- there should be plenty of excitement surrounding Maye entering his second professional season at the conclusion of his rookie year.
J.J. McCarthy (Vikings)
Supporting cast
Sure, the Bears have a nice collection of receivers and a burgeoning offensive line. But before the draft, most analysts agreed: the Vikings had the supporting cast most conducive to success for a young quarterback.
I haven't allowed recency bias to creep into my thoughts about the receiver pecking order in the NFL -- Justin Jefferson is the best wideout in football, with the most complete game of anyone at the position. And he's healthy. T.J. Hockenson is a borderline elite tight end when he's fully back from his ACL tear.
The tiny yet explosive Jordan Addison caught 10 touchdowns as a rookie, and more impressive than that is the fact that his production and overall efficiency didn't dip once Jefferson went down with injury and defenses could, in theory, focus on stopping him at all three levels.
The two tackles are horses -- Christian Darrisaw is in the top three or four best young left tackles in football and is now paid like it. Brian O'Neill is probably the most underrated right tackle with football with supreme athletic gifts. Garrett Bradbury has gone from first-round bust to serviceable blocker at center and Ed Ingram holds his own in Kevin O'Connell's wide-zone scheme despite athletic limitations.
McCarthy couldn't reasonably ask for a better supporting cast of characters in Minnesota.
Improving his weaknesses
McCarthy had many games at Michigan in which he wasn't asked to do much. Maybe one or two key third-down throws late. But not much else. Now, we can't fault him for his collegiate situation, yet it probably didn't provide him with the most useful experience for the NFL.
That isn't an individual weakness per se, yet moving through reads, making keen decisions under pressure, etc. likely will take time for McCarthy, as he simply didn't get ample reps doing those things at Michigan.
And once in a while, he attempted to do too much. Reversed his field behind the line, made a precarious throw into tight coverage that was early harmlessly knocked away but seemingly could've been picked etc. There are some hard-to-see rough edges to his game that need to be smoothed out before he reaches his full potential. Fortunately for the Vikings, he's only 21 years old.
Strengthening his strengths
McCarthy's film at Michigan was really clean, and his hardly blemished record with the Wolverines hints at that. While he absolutely was "well-protected" in Ann Arbor behind a Kevlar offensive line, a sound running game and plenty of playaction, McCarthy's arm talent and athletic capabilities shined through in key moments.
I loved that about him on film. He could glide effortlessly through an entire contest, almost as if he didn't have a care in the world as Michigan cruised. Yet if the Wolverines suddenly found themselves in a difficult spot, McCarthy typically came through with either a creative chain-moving scramble or a rifle shot to close the deal.
In essence, his play elevates with the situation at hand.
Season outlook
Sam Darnold is seemingly putting up quite the fight in training camp to begin the season at Minnesota's starter. And no one would lambaste the Vikings if they give the veteran the nod out of the preseason.
Eventually, in 2024, McCarthy will play. And the sage quarterback-friendly coaching he has at his disposal with Kevin O'Connell and new-to-the-staff Josh McCown can guide him once he's on the field. Plus, the supporting cast is so top-heavy that easy throws can quickly become confidence-building splash plays. In short, it'll be rare that the Vikings are repeatedly off-schedule or behind the sticks possession after possession. Heck, the Vikings finished 10th in first downs last season without Kirk Cousins on the field for most of it.
McCarthy won't set the world on fire in Year 1, yet late in the season, once he's comfortable, he'll begin to operate in his very familiar, rhythmic way, almost in cruise control. And that will lead to immense hype entering the 2025 season in Minnesota.
Bo Nix (Broncos)
Supporting cast
Sean Payton knows offense. We are probably to a point where we realize Drew Brees was integral to Payton's reputation as a genius, but it's not as if Nix enters the NFL with an offensive coordinator whose inexperience or ineptitude (or a combination of both) should realistically hinder his development.
But at receiver, there's work to be done roster-building wise for GM George Paton -- although the Courtland Sutton-Marvin Mims duo has sneaky-dynamic upside. While the rest of the receiver group doesn't conjure much excitement, the Broncos did get Nix his favorite target at Oregon, Troy Franklin, in Round 4. He may have issues beating press at the line but is a bendy route runner with speed that's faster on the field than the track.
As for the offensive line, it's a low-key solid group, although this isn't a unit that will dominate often. Quinn Meinerz was rewarded just a few weeks ago with a new contract after a stellar start to his career from the Division III ranks, Mike McGlinchey is still viable at right tackle, and Garett Bolles miraculously found himself right as he waded into the first-round bust waters a few years ago.
Nix has what can be widely considered as your average, run-of-the-mill supporting cast for a team that picked a quarterback inside the top 15.
Improving his weaknesses
This may read crazy, but I don't think Nix is very accurate. His 77.4% completion rate would beg to differ. The Oregon offense was maybe as gimmicky as I've seen for first-round prospect at the quarterback position. But it was also a sound scheme that got receivers like Franklin wide open frequently. Many of Nix's deep connections were thrown to wide-open targets.
On film, I didn't see him hit tight-window throws as frequently as the other passers in this class.
That's a concern, as that component of the game as become vital in the NFL today, and Nix simply doesn't have that much experience or success doing so.
Strengthening his strengths
From the jump in this pre-draft process, Nix and Payton felt like a match made in football heaven. Nix went from improvisational specialist at Auburn to methodical point guard at Oregon. With the Ducks, he understood where he needed to go with the football, and threw it to that first read in a flash in almost every situation.
And underneath and at the intermediate level, the ball placement was typically good.
Beyond the obviously vital passing element to his game, Nix is a plus athlete. He won't be a designed-run game monster but is probably comparable to Jalen Hurts athletically, and we all know how much of a nuisance he is to opposing defenses with his legs.
Season outlook
Basically by default, Nix is going to start Week 1. And that's not a worst-case scenario. It doesn't doom his professional career. Payton will provide him many easy "layups" at the outset of his first game -- and first month -- in the NFL.
Will defenses be able to confuse him at times? Probably. The final year of the Pac-12 as we knew it wasn't rife with defensive brilliance. And the ball-placement will take time to be honed at the professional level, when everything and everyone moves faster than college.
The Broncos are a year or more away from fielding a legitimate contender in what has become an absolutely loaded AFC, and if the defense puts Nix into difficult spots, he may be forced into taking risks he simply didn't have to take often at Oregon. I love his athleticism and quick-game efficiency with Payton but question his ability to elevate the team around him.