We've never before seen this Kyler Murray. Even in his second season, when he appeared on the MVP radar post Hail Murray and five of his first 10 games featured a rating north of 100, Murray wasn't playing as efficiently as he has to date in 2024.
Over the last three games, Murray has been on an absolute heater -- 76.2% completion rate, five total touchdowns (two rushing), 9.09 yards per attempt, no interceptions, and three fumbles (one lost) on 85 dropbacks. Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals have averaged 29.3 points per and have won each contest en route to taking the NFC West lead into the bye week.
And Week 10's masterpiece against the Jets was probably Murray's finest showing in the NFL, particularly when factoring the strength of New York's defense entering the game. Before traveling to Arizona, the Jets were 12th in dropback EPA per play allowed and second in success rate allowed.
Murray shredded that unit unlike any quarterback we've seen this season. Also, going 22 of 24 for 266 yards with one touchdown and no picks would be awe-inspiring against the NFL's worst defense by any analytic measure.
At the core of this new, advanced iteration of Murray -- his play outside the pocket and under pressure.
Here's how Murray has operated beyond the limits of the confines of the pocket through 10 games this season:
| Kyler Murray Outside Pocket | Comp % | Yards Per Attempt | TD/INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 68.2 | 9.8 | 4/0 | 129.8 |
2023 | 62.1 | 7.1 | 0/0 | 83.3 |
2022 | 28.6 | 3.7 | 1/1 | 40.4 |
2021 | 46.5 | 7.2 | 6/2 | 85.6 |
| 2020 | 50.6 | 6.5 | 8/2 | 100.5 |
Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who comes from the Gary Kubiak limb of the Mike Shanahan coaching tree, deserves credit here, and within Murray's outside the pocket numbers is incredible effectiveness on designed rollouts, a Shanahanian staple.
On those particular plays, because not every Murray outside-the-pocket throw comes on a scramble attempt, the former No. 1 overall pick has a perfect 158.3 passer rating. He's 17 of 20 for 269 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Given his supreme athletic gifts and arm talent, it should come as no surprise Murray is dicing while on the run in a structured setting. And against pressure, he's operating unlike ever before.
| Kyler Murray Under Pressure | Comp % | Yards Per Attempt | TD/INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 64.2 | 6.9 | 3/0 | 99.1 |
2023 | 53.7 | 5.6 | 4/1 | 84 |
2022 | 40.5 | 3.8 | 2/5 | 33.6 |
2021 | 53.3 | 6.7 | 4/4 | 71.6 |
2020 | 44.6 | 6.1 | 5/4 | 64.8 |
And it shouldn't be surprising that Murray's game has developed in this key area this season. Why? Arizona finally has legitimate answers at the skill positions. The 2020 and 2021 campaigns were boosted by the presence of in-his-prime DeAndre Hopkins. He missed six games in 2022 due to suspension, and because of Murray's noncontact knee injury early in a Week 14 game against the Patriots, the two only appeared in four full games together.
Now, Murray is throwing to budding superstar tight end Trey McBride in Year 2, Marvin Harrison Jr. on the boundary, a competent outside receiver across from him in Michael Wilson and twitched-up slot wideout Greg Dortch inside.
But more than simply pointing to an uptick in outside-the-pocket and pressured play from Murray is a marriage I've noticed between his scrambling and throwing-on-the-run elements to his game. This season, he's demonstrated better balance between those two than he ever has in the NFL.
Back in 2021, which, until this season, was Murray's most efficient season as a thrower, when he posted a seismic 7.9% Big-Time Throw rate, he carried the ball 90 times for 429 yards -- 4.8 per tote -- and five touchdowns with a whopping 13 fumbles. Most inexplicably of all, the lightning-quick feet of Murray forced a mere three missed tackles that season.
This season, the genuinely threatening aspect of Murray carrying the football has returned. On 46 rushing attempts after Week 10, Murray has accumulated 371 yards -- 8.1 per -- with four touchdowns and six fumbles. And he's forced seven missed tackles.
Murray has truly become the intimidating dual-threat high-level passer the Cardinals were hoping they were getting when he was selected at No. 1 overall back in 2019. We've seen glimpses of it from him dating to 2020.
But, now, as a mature NFL quarterback, it feels like Murray understands he doesn't have to win games single-handedly. The Cardinals are currently eighth in EPA per rush. Murray's more low volume than ever -- only 27.6 attempts per game. But the efficiency is at a new level, which is a driver in leading the Cardinals atop the NFC West right now.
