Buffalo's reckoning: Josh Allen's prime and a window that's shrinking

The Buffalo Bills have once again been eliminated from the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion. 

Their 33-30 defeat at the hands of the Denver Broncos in the divisional round of the playoffs was rife with both mistakes and controversy, and their season has ended the same way so many during the Sean McDermott and Josh Allen have before: with a trip back home to Buffalo before reaching their ultimate goal. The Bills during this era have made the playoffs in seven straight seasons and the divisional round in six of them, but they've only advanced to the conference championship twice and have not yet made it to the Super Bowl. 

What hurts the most about this particular defeat is that this may have been Buffalo's best chance to break through. While the Bills came into the playoffs as the AFC's No. 6 seed, the usual suspects with whom they would have to contend for the AFC title were all sitting at home. 

Irate Sean McDermott reacts to Broncos' controversial overtime interception in Bills' stunning playoff loss

John Breech

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs. So did Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. And so did the Bills' biggest boogeyman of all, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. 

You can't help but wonder, if the Bills couldn't make it through the AFC field this year, then will they ever be able to do so? Or will they instead go through Allen's entire prime -- perhaps his entire career -- without making it to the mountaintop?

With that existential question hanging over everything, the Bills have some soul searching to do, some big decisions to make and some key areas where they need to improve between this year and next, if they want things to be any different in 2026 and beyond.

The coaching staff

McDermott is a good coach. He's compiled a record 98-50 in the regular season, giving him a .662 winning percentage that is third-best among active coaches and which ranks 15th all time among the 207 coaches who have coached at least 50 games, according to Pro-Football-Reference. He's gone 8-8 in the playoffs and, as mentioned, has made the divisional round in six of his seven trips and the AFC title game in two of them.

But if the Bills are going to make a big change in the wake of their latest defeat, it's likely going to be moving on from McDermott and trying to find someone who can take them to the next level. The quarterback obviously isn't going anywhere, and not just because of his six-year, $330 million contract. The only other sizable change available to the Bills is to swap out the coach and hope that an injection of something new becomes the difference between heading home and heading to the Super Bowl. 

It doesn't help, though, that this isn't exactly the best hiring cycle. There are surely some attractive options out there, but it's not like last offseason when Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel were the lead names and some of the most sought-after coaches in recent years. 

That fact, plus the stability that McDermott has brought to what had been a moribund franchise before he got there -- remember, the Bills had not made the playoffs since 1999 before McDermott arrived and had not played in the AFC title game since their four straight trips to the Super Bowl before McDermott and Allen led them there -- could add up to McDermott returning for at least another year. He and general manager Brandon Beane are under contract through the 2027 season, and with the Bills soon moving to a new stadium, they may not want to rock the boat too much in the meantime. 

If the Bills decide to bring McDermott back -- which is probably more likely than deciding to move on, to be clear -- then they could instead opt to make a change at one or both of the coordinator positions. 

Joe Brady's offense has been very good overall since he took over for Ken Dorsey late in the 2023 season, but it's also been inconsistent. There are times where it looks unstoppable and times where it looks like it's lost. He's leaned into multiple tight end sets and heavy personnel to mold the offense to fit the roster, but the Bills might look to go in a different direction. That said, Brady would also be just as likely to be a candidate to replace McDermott if the Bills moved on there. He's in a very interesting situation.

Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich's unit was a disappointment this year. Some of that is on the personnel and the injury issues the Bills faced, but when a team is facing an existential crisis and the head coach isn't necessarily on the most solid ground, coordinator changes are always possible. It's also possible that McDermott could just reclaim play-calling duties for the defense, which is something he has done before. (McDermott said in October that he and Babich call the plays together.)

It's also worth noting that offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, who has built one of the best units in the league during his time in Buffalo, is expected to retire. The Bills will at least need to find a suitable replacement there.

Josh Allen's weaponry

It's somewhat fitting that Buffalo's season arguably swung in the wrong direction on a deep ball to Brandin Cooks -- a 32-year-old wide receiver who was claimed off waivers from the New Orleans Saints and suddenly became an important piece of the Bills' passing attack down the stretch of the season. That kind of personifies some of the issues with Buffalo's receiver corps, which has unquestionably regressed over the last few years. 

Gone are the days of Stefon Diggs, or even of Cole Beasley and John Brown. Instead, the Bills heavily rotate through guys who are specialists like slot man Khalil Shakir or primarily blockers like Tyrell Shavers or deep depth pieces and cast-offs like Cooks, Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer and Mecole Hardman. 

Keon Coleman, the team's second-round pick in 2024, was supposed to be different, but he has instead been unreliable both on the field and off it and doesn't look like a key piece of the future unless he dramatically turns things around. Tight end Dalton Kincaid was supposed to be a premier weapon as well, but has instead largely been a part-time player because he's not a very good blocker, and hasn't been quite as advertised as a receiving threat. 

The Bills need to get more explosive in their pass-catching corps, and they especially need someone to do the X receiver type of things that they thought Coleman would bring to the table -- stretch the field from the outside, win in contested catch situations and create spacing for guys like Shakir and Kincaid to work underneath and over the middle. 

This isn't meant to excuse Allen's performance against the Broncos, during which he turned the ball over four times, with two interceptions and two fumbles. It's true that he played his own role in the loss. It's just also true that the Bills need to improve this area of the team so that they're not relying on guys like Cooks -- who, to be fair, did some good work during his stint -- in key situations like they were on Saturday afternoon. They can't be so dependent on Allen putting on his Superman cape in every game.

The defensive front, again

Buffalo got absolutely clocked in the run game throughout this season. The Bills allowed 5.1 yards per carry, which ranked 30th in the NFL. They allowed at least 100 rushing yards in 12 of their 19 total games, at least 150 in eight of them and at least 200 in four.

They were 26th in yards allowed before contact per rush, according to Tru Media, and dead stinking last in yards allowed after contact. They allowed opponents to gain five or more yards on 39.3% of their carries, which ranked fifth-worst in the league, and they allowed an explosive run on 11.3% of opponent rushes, which tied them with the Dallas freaking Cowboys for the worst mark in the NFL.

The Bills, as has become a trend in their playoff losses, also struggled badly to get pressure without blitzing during the playoffs. According to Tru Media, they generated pressure on just 25% of opponent dropbacks when sending four or fewer rushers. That's a truly abysmal figure.

They have annually tried to alleviate that issue by signing edge rushers, but it annually has not quite worked in the biggest moments of their season. They tend to have a bunch of B to B+ players up front, but in the playoffs you really need those A players who can take over the game. The Bills just flat out haven't had that type of player, despite their repeated attempts to find one.

The Bills won't have much in the way of cap space and will be picking late in each round of the draft, but figuring out a way to find a dominant force along the defensive front should probably be priority No. 1 for the offseason, just as it has been over each of the last few years. 

Moving forward in Buffalo

To begin the playoffs, my colleague Douglas Clawson broke down why the Bills' slate was tantamount to a golden ticket for Allen. Give Buffalo credit for winning a tough game at Jacksonville, in which it was an underdog, but there may not be a set of circumstances this favorable again. From Clawson's piece: 

Allen and the Bills have hit the jackpot this year and they need to turn in that golden ticket because this year is a blip. I assume Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow will all be back in the postseason looking like themselves. They've all got injury or some kind of adversity to overcome, but they are just too darn good.

Meanwhile, the other young blue-chip quarterbacks in the conference are still a little green. Bo Nix, Justin Herbert and Drake Maye have all yet to win a playoff game in their careers. Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud has flirted with excellence, but haven't sustained it for a long period of time like the current mount rushmore. These could all be rising powers, though.

The Bills could have their hands full with Drake Maye in the AFC East for years to come, especially when the Patriots build out a better roster around his rookie deal. Right now he's still a one-man band. 

No, Buffalo's Super Bowl window is not closing. But it may never be that open again. It will be a long winter in Buffalo.