Sometimes, it's not about who you play, but when you play them, that makes all the difference. You could certainly say that about Thursday night's game between the Broncos and Saints, a game that will kick off the NFL's seventh week of the regular season.
A month ago, the Saints were 2-0 and on top of the football world, while the Broncos were 0-2 after scoring just six points in a Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh. Things are completely different now; New Orleans has lost four straight, and Denver had won three straight games prior to last weekend's close loss to the Chargers.
The Broncos being favored in this game would have been inconceivable four weeks ago. Quarterback play is the biggest reason why the tables have turned. While already careening in the wrong direction, the Saints' season continued to go south when Derek Carr's Week 5 loss to the Saints. Conversely, a good deal of the Broncos' steady progress can be attributed to the continued growth of rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Now that we've set the table, here's how you can watch the action along with our breakdown and prediction for Thursday night's game.
Where to watch Broncos vs. Saints
- When: Thursday, Oct. 17 | 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome -- New Orleans
- Live stream: Prime Video
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Broncos -2.4, OU 37 (via BetMGM)
When the Saints have the ball
Despite their four-game swoon, New Orleans' offense is still fifth in the league in scoring. There's a good chance that won't be the case after Thursday night, however, as the team will be without guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), wideouts Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). Carr (oblique) and tight end Taysom Hill (rub) are doubtful, while center/guard Lucas Patrick (chest) is questionable.
With Olave and Shaheed out, the Saints' passing game will likely lean heavily on running back Alvin Kamara and tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. Kamara enters Thursday night's game as the team's season-leading receiver with 28 catches. Moreau and Johnson have combined to catch 21 passes for 230 yards and three touchdowns.
Rookie fifth-rounder Bub Means, the Saints' most productive receiver who will be active on Thursday night, is coming off his best NFL game to date. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a score in last Sunday's loss to Tampa Bay. A big-play threat, Means averaged 17.2 yards-per-catch during his college career that included stops at three different schools.
With Carr doubtful and not having practiced all week, rookie Spencer Rattler is in line to make his second career start. Rattler quickly found his rhythm last Sunday in leading the Saints to four consecutive scores in the first half. But he and the offense stalled in a big way after that. The unit's final eight drives included five punts and two interceptions by Rattler, who endured five sacks.
In hindsight, the Saints probably didn't love Rattler throwing 40 passes in his first NFL game. Against Denver, expect less throwing from Rattler and more handoffs to Kamara and fellow backfield mate Jamaal Williams, a former 1,000-yard rusher with the Lions who has just 27 carries this season so far.
Rattler and Co. have the unenviable task of facing a tough Denver defense. They may not be the Orange Crush, but Sean Payton's unit is pretty good in its own right, led by cornerback Patrick Surtain II and a pass rush that has already sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times.
Six Broncos have already tallied at least two sacks, led by outside linebacker Jonathan Cooper's 4.5 sacks. Rest assured, the Broncos' stealth pass rush has the Saints' attention, and it will be absolutely critical for New Orleans to not allow this element of the Broncos' team to take over the game.
Denver's defense is top-10 in the NFL in many categories, including in points allowed (fourth), passing yards allowed (fifth) and red zone efficiency (first). If there's an area the Saints can possible exploit, it's Denver's third down defense (19th in the league) and run defense (14th in yards allowed). This is where Kamara and Williams come into play.
Rattler will need to play smart, but he'll have to let it rip at least once or twice in order to keep Denver's defense honest.
When the Broncos have the ball
Nix's rookie season hasn't been smooth sailing. But despite some turbulence, Nix is nonetheless showing the promise that compelled the Broncos to take him with the 12th overall pick in April's draft.
After posting a 0-4 touchdown-interception ratio in his first three games, Nix has tossed five touchdowns against just once pick over Denver's last three games. He's also run for three scores this season and had a season-high 61 yards on 6 carries in last week's loss to the Chargers.
Last Sunday looked ugly for a long time before the Broncos' offense made a late charge similar to Arnold Palmer's legendary charge that won him the 1960 U.S. Open that happened to be played in Denver. But unlike Palmer, Nix's late rally did not result in victory.
The Broncos had five punts and two turnovers on their first seven drives, but they ended the day with two touchdowns and a field goal to pull to within one score of Los Angeles with 2:26 left. So what changed? Los Angeles probably laid off the gas, and Nix made them pay with concise passing to Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele and Javonte Williams.
During Denver's final three drives, Nix was 15 of 19 that included completions of 29, 37, 20, 20 and 17 yards. He also threw touchdown passes to Franklin and Sutton.
Trailing by 23, Payton threw away any semblance of a balanced offense. Denver needed points, and Nix was unleashed in an effort to pull off an upset. While playing like that for an entire game is unrealistic, the ending sequence of last Sunday's game was another example of how good Nix can be when he finds his rhythm. That sequence also showed the big-play ability of the Broncos' ever-improving receiving corps.
The problem, however, was the lack of run support Nix received throughout the game, which contributed to the Broncos being just 3 of 11 on third down. This isn't an isolated incident, as the Broncos have been one of the league's worst rushing teams this year and are 31st in the league on third down. Denver has to get better in both areas if they're going to stay in the playoff race.
Fortunately for the Broncos, they'll be facing a Saints defense that is 30th in the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed. They're also just 20th in the league in third down defense.
Feast or famine would be an accurate way to sum up the Saints' defense, which has slipped to 23rd in the league in points allowed after being top-10 in that department during Dennis Allen's first two years as head coach. The Saints are second in the NFL in interceptions (10), have a solid pass rush (led by defensive tackle Bryan Bresee and Alontae Taylor) and are third in red zone efficiency.
For Payton's offense, establishing a running game will be key on Thursday night. Nix also needs to take care of the ball, which will be a challenge given the Saints' penchant for catching the opposition's passes. At the same time, Nix can't be gun shy. What's the point of a good defense, after all, if you never challenge them to rise to the occasion?
Broncos vs. Saints prediction
This should be a entertaining Thursday night game, albeit one that might be lacking in execution. This game is probably going to come down to which running game can get going and which quarterback will do a better job taking care of the ball. Both of these go hand in hand.
Matchups are important in sports betting. When looking at both teams, it appears that the Broncos have several big advantages. They have a top-five defense going up against a rookie quarterback making his second career start with both of his top receivers not playing. That is enough to feel relatively safe about picking the Broncos on the road, unless Kamara runs wild, Rattler's secondary receivers step and the defense is able to get a few picks off of Nix.
Payton gets his victory against the team he led to a championship 15 years ago.
Score: Broncos 27, Saints 20 (hitting the Over set at BetMGM sportsbook)
Check out more NFL picks from Pete Prisco in Week 7.
Matt Severance, who is on a 21-6 roll on Broncos games, has released his best bets for the Week 7 "Thursday Night Football' game. Severance is leaning the Under total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.
