There are 100 million fully guaranteed reasons this may not happen, but the Falcons need to send Kirk Cousins to the sideline and start Michael Penix Jr.
Let's start, naturally, with the numbers as justification. Over the last four games, all Atlanta losses, Cousins has thrown eight interceptions without a touchdown, with a 7.57 yards-per-attempt average, and led an offense that is averaging 14.25 points per contest. Brutal.
The abysmal quarterback play coincided with a three-game surge for Atlanta's defense. From Week 11 to Week 13, the Falcons defense was eighth in Expected Points Added per play in non-garbage-time situations. They weren't able to play anywhere close to that level on the road against Sam Darnold and Co. in Minnesota, however, and the result was getting doubled up by the Vikings, 42-21.
In fourth quarters alone, Cousins has a 56 rating, which stems from two touchdowns to eight interceptions at 61.2% completion and 6.20 yards per attempt. Nine of Atlanta's 13 games to date have been within one score entering the fourth.
This isn't a schematic problem, nor are fluky plays the culprit here.
Cousins has regressed from a dependable, high-efficiency pocket passer with limited upside to an immobile quarterback whose weak arm and poor decision-making have become clear liabilities.
As the kids say, Cousins is cooked.
If completion percentage and yards per attempt are checked, it'd appear Cousins is operating on-brand. During his six-year stint in Minnesota, he completed 67.8% of his throws at 7.6 yards per attempt. This year in Atlanta, his completion rate is 67%, and his yards-per-attempt average is 7.8.
But the film tells a completely different story.
Check these interceptions against the Vikings.
And don't forget, three of his four interceptions in the 17-13 loss in front of the home crowd to the Chargers in Week 13 were of the brutal variety.
Those type of decisions and, especially, that lack of arm strength, hamstrings an NFL offense today. Cousins is operating like a quarterback of the past. His improvisation skills were never a forte. But now the velocity his arm can generate has sunk well below requisite levels to connect on even anticipatory throws.
Defensive backs are too fast. Windows close in a blink of an eye. Which means Cousins has to release the football drastically before a receiver is to his spot, thereby increasing the difficulty of the pass to an extraordinarily high level.
Ironic to all of this -- Penix's cannon of an arm is likely a large part of why the Falcons shocked the NFL world by drafting him at No. 8 overall in April after giving Cousins $100 million fully guaranteed in March.
And arm strength was the deciding factor on two of those interceptions against the Chargers. And they're not the only ones.
Fortunately, amid all his hamstringing quarterback play, the Falcons still aren't out of it by any means in the NFC South. They'll enter Week 15 just a game back of the 7-6 Buccaneers.
The Falcons' final four contests are as follows : at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers.
Can they get to nine wins? Will that be enough to win the division?
For as much as those should/could be the Falcons' realistic goals in 2024, they represent Atlanta's ceiling ... that is, if Cousins remains the starting quarterback. And I totally understand how unprecedented it'd be for a team in the hunt for a division title to bench its starting quarterback in December and replace him with a rookie.
But this all isn't meant to suggest Penix is guaranteed to be better, although I'm guessing he would be.
It's that Cousins' greatest selling point for a long time has been this -- you know what you get with him. And now, that selling point is the exact reason to bench him for a considerably more physically gifted Penix.