No NFL team has had a more dramatic turnaround in recent seasons than the Detroit Lions, who open up the 2024 season Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams. After years in the wilderness, three-plus decades without a playoff win, 11 head coaches and countless quarterbacks, the Lions last season went 12-5, won the NFC North and made it all the way to the conference championship game before bowing out against the San Francisco 49ers.
For the most part, Detroit's rapid ascent has happened on the strength of Dan Campbell's combination of personality and coaching acumen, and a well-constructed, ruthlessly efficient offense. Detroit last season finished third in the NFL in yards and fifth in points, fourth in both yards per play and points per drive, and fifth in TruMedia's expected points added (EPA) per play.
The defense, though, has been lagging a bit behind. While the offense has shot up the ranks over the last several years, the same improvement hasn't yet shown up on the opposite side of the ball. At least, not to nearly the same extent.
| Stat | 2021 Offense | 2022 Offense | 2023 Offense | 2021 Defense | 2022 Defense | 2023 Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards | 22 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 32 | 19 |
| Points | 25 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 23 |
| Yds/Play | 20 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 32 | 27 |
| Pts/Drive | 22 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 26 |
| EPA/Play | 22 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 31 | 24 |
During the early part of last season, it looked like perhaps the Lions had figured something out.
Through the Week 8 bye, Detroit's opponents averaged the seventh-fewest yards per game and 12th-fewest points per game, and the Lions were tied for ninth in the NFL in EPA/play on defense. They had the NFL's third-best defense on third downs, allowing only a 32.6% conversion rate. They forced negative plays (those that gained zero yards or lost yardage) at the seventh-highest rate in the league. They got pressure on opposing quarterbacks on 41.6% of dropbacks, fourth-most often in the NFL. They held opponents to an explosive-run rate of just 3%, the best mark in the league.
And then the bottom fell out from under them. From Week 9 on, Detroit ranked 27th in yards per game and 28th in points per game. The Lions were 28th in EPA/play on defense. Opponents converted 40.7% of third downs, the seventh-highest mark in the league. They gained zero or negative yards at a league-average rate, but created an explosive gain on 8.2% of snaps -- the highest rate in the NFL. Detroit still generated pressure at a high rate (third in the league) but only converted it into sacks 6.1% of the time -- a rate that checked in 25th in the NFL. And the Lions fell back to a league-average explosive-run rate allowed (7.6%).
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has become one of the most decorated assistant coaches in the league for his work with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the rest of Detroit's offense. Defensive coordinator and longtime NFL cornerback Aaron Glenn is clearly hoping to deploy the Detroit defense in his image in the same way Johnson has done with the offense.
Glenn has made no secret of the fact that he wants to be aggressive defensively, getting after quarterbacks with heavy pressure and creative blitzes while having his defensive backs press and jam opposing receivers and play sticky man coverage. But the Lions, for the most part, have simply not had the personnel to execute that strategy.
After again investing significant resources in the defense, the hope is that the Lions can get back to the type of results they had in the early part of last year. Free agent signings D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport should help solidify the defensive line alongside Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. Trade acquisition Carlton Davis and draft picks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. should provide desperately needed fortification in the secondary. Players like Hutchinson, linebacker Jack Campbell, versatile defensive back Brian Branch and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu should take steps forward. If all of those factors can congeal into more consistency and a defense than can remain in the top half of the league or even sneak into the top 10 overall, that will make the Lions more than just an NFC contender, but perhaps something more like the favorite.
There are, of course, still question marks and potential holes in this plan. Reader is now on the wrong side of 30 and has had issues staying healthy. Davenport has always been more of a theoretical high-level pass rusher than an actual one, and he has also had injury issues. Arnold and Rakestraw are high-level prospects; but they are still rookies, and rookies are usually bad -- even if they eventually become good. Campbell and Branch had strong rookie years, but improvement isn't always linear. There is still a lack of top-end edge talent beyond Hutchinson, and the Lions are still kind of cobbling things together on the interior and even at linebacker.
The floor is higher for this year's unit. The upside should be as well. But whether they can realize that upside remains to be seen.
