The Auburn Tigers will play their first game under new head coach Alex Golesh on Saturday when they face Baylor in Atlanta, Ga. These squads faced off a year ago, with the Tigers winning 38-24 in Waco. This matchup has new quarterbacks on each side with the Tigers led by Byrum Brown, who transferred to Auburn from South Florida to follow Golesh, while Florida transfer DJ Lagway is leading the way for the Bears. Each squad went 5-7 last year. We're taking a look at some of the trading markets available for Auburn vs. Baylor at two of the best prediction market apps -- Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms offer prediction market bonuses for new users that can be used on Baylor vs. Auburn and other Saturday college football games for fans in states where prediction markets are legal.
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Auburn vs. Baylor prediction markets
- Auburn to win: 72% (Polymarket)
- Baylor to win: 28% (Polymarket)
- Auburn to win by more than 7.5 points: Yes $0.49, No $0.52 (Kalshi)
- More than 58.5 points: Yes $0.50, No $0.51 (Kalshi)
Auburn to win: 72% (Polymarket)
This is a completely different Tigers team. Golesh and Brown had a lot of success together at South Florida, so there is new hope in Auburn. The coach led the Bulls to three straight winning seasons, including a 9-4 mark in 2025. Brown threw for 3,158 yards and rushed for 1,008 and accounted for the second-most total TDs in FBS last season with 42. The quarterback could be a darkhorse Heisman contender (he's priced at $0.02 at Kalshi), and he should help the Tigers win more tight games. They lost six one-score games in 2025, tied for most in FBS. South Florida was No. 3 in total yards (489 per game) and No. 5 in scoring (40.5) last season, and 11 players familiar with the system came with Golesh from Tampa.
A Tigers victory over Baylor is trading at 72% at Polymarket.
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Baylor to win: 28% (Polymarket)
The Bears have not been good lately under Aranda, who won the Big 12 and reached the Sugar Bowl in 2021 but is 22-28 over his past four seasons. Lagway, the No. 1 quarterback in the Class of 2024 prep recruiting rankings, showed flashes of his talent at Florida but went 10-9 as a starter over two seasons with the Gators. A change of scenery could help, and the team added a lot of weapons, including receivers Dre'lon Miller (Colorado) and Gavin Freeman (Oklahoma State). They'll join Louis Brown IV, a deep threat who sat out most of last year after catching 85 passes over the previous two seasons at San Jose State. The Bears averaged 451 yards per game last season, third-most in the Big 12.
A Baylor win has a 28% probability at Polymarket.
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Auburn to win by more than 7.5 points: Yes $0.49, No $0.52 (Kalshi)
The Tigers offense is going to go fast and while there is likely to be some first-game jitters, Golesh has a strong cast that is familiar with his approach. The Bulls didn't win the big games, but they won plenty during the coach's tenure, and Auburn has a better football foundation. The coach is going to want to make a statement in his first game at the helm. The game was moved from Auburn's Jordan-Hare Stadium, but it should still be a de facto home game for the Tigers. The Bears also have a lot of new faces to incorporate, so the crowd support could give AU a big edge in the opener.
The Tigers are priced at $0.49 per share to win by more than 7.5 points on Saturday, while Baylor to win or lose by less than 7.5 points is trading for $0.52 per share.
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More than 58.5 points: Yes $0.50, No $0.51 (Kalshi)
Both of these teams can put a lot of pressure on defenses with their tempo, and the talented quarterbacks will only add to the headaches for the defensive coordinators. Brown was the first FBS quarterback with at least 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing since Jayden Daniels did it in his 2023 Heisman season at LSU. Lagway was up and down at UF, throwing for 2,264 yards and 16 TD passes last season, but he also threw 14 interceptions. Baylor averaged 31.1 points per game in 2025, while Auburn averaged just 26.8, but as noted USF scored 40.5 with Brown and Golesh working together.
Auburn and Baylor to combine for at least 59 points is $0.50 per share at Kalshi, while scoring 58 or fewer combined points is trading at $0.51 per share.
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