Champions League contenders and pretenders: Arsenal the team to beat; Real Madrid can win it, but Barca can't?
Arsenal are top of the league phase table as the only perfect team through six games, with Bayern Munich just three points behind them in second place
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4 min read
The UEFA Champions League's 2025 slate is complete and as the new year approaches, a handful of teams enter Europe's winter break in good standing. Some have already booked a spot in the knockout stages and look certain to clinch top-eight finishes when the competition returns, while others have punched above their weight to dream about a direct berth to the round of 16 come January.
Six games into the Champions League season, a few have even begun to build their case as title contenders. The list feels like a somewhat familiar one – last season's semifinalists Arsenal sit atop the league phase table, followed by perennial contenders Bayern Munich and reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain. Previous champions Manchester City, Inter and Real Madrid also crack the top eight and remain the frontrunners for direct passageway to the round of 16, their trophy credentials still quick to spot no matter the ebbs and flows of their campaign so far.
It forces the question ahead of the business end of the Champions League season: which ones of these teams are the real deal, and which ones are merely filling in the blank space on the bracket?
Champions League table
| W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Arsenal | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | +16 | 18 |
2. Bayern Munich | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 15 |
3. Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 13 |
4. Manchester City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 13 |
5. Atalanta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 |
6. Inter | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
7. Real Madrid | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
8. Atletico Madrid | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
9. Liverpool | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
10. Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 11 |
11. Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
12. Newcastle United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 10 |
13. Chelsea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 |
14. Sporting Lisbon | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
15. Barcelona | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 |
16. Marseille | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
17. Juventus | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 9 |
18. Galatasaray | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
19. Monaco | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
20. Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
21. PSV | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 8 |
22. Qarabag | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 |
23. Napoli | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
24. Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
25. Benfica | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
26. Pafos | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
27. Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 |
28. Athletic Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
29. Olympiacos | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 5 |
30. Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
31. Club Brugge | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
32. Bodo/Glimt | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 |
33. Slavia Praha | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
34. Ajax | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 3 |
35. Villarreal | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
36. Kairat | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
In need of a turnaround
Liverpool (9th), Chelsea (13th), Barcelona (15th)
The good news for these teams is that they are still more likely to participate in the knockout rounds than not, while Liverpool can take more confidence from the fact that they are only out of the top eight on tiebreakers. Never say never on a run to the May 30 final at Budapest's Puskas Arena – PSG, after all, went on to win last season's competition despite finishing 15th in the league phase – but it is hard to deny that they each have genuine room for improvement. The Reds, quite simply, have been all over the place this season and should prioritize consistency above all else, while Chelsea's sputtering attack will likely keep them from a trophy lift in the Champions League this season. Barcelona have so far had the most notable fall from grace – they went to the semifinals last season and were well and truly a contender during that run but their defense has been remarkably porous, costing them time and time again. That does not feel like an easy fix, either, between manager Hansi Flick's stylistic choices and the quality of the players at his disposal.
Pretenders
Atalanta (5th), Inter (6th), Atletico Madrid (8th)
Each of these teams deserves credit for a consistency that has allowed them to rise to the top eight places with two games to go, many of them likely to reach the knockouts with few complications. From there, though, they may have to rely on the luck of the draw – Atalanta's most impressive result of the Champions League season was against an unimpressive Chelsea, which only means so much in terms of a title run. Inter and Atletico Madrid have more star power to speak of but it's unclear if they have enough talent to go all the way.
Contenders
Arsenal (1st), Bayern Munich (2nd), Paris Saint-Germain (3rd), Manchester City (4th), Real Madrid (7th)
Admittedly, this is an overly long list but it is hard to rule out any of these teams with so much time left on the clock – and with last season's competition still top of mind. Granted, some of these teams are more realistic contenders than others. Arsenal are the easiest answer to any question about who might win the Champions League next spring, both as the only perfect team left in the competition and as a group with a cohesive idea and a deep squad. Bayern Munich are slowly but surely proving themselves as Europe's elites with a defense-first strategy, while Paris Saint-Germain should still be a contender if they have a majority of their stars around. Manchester City can be iffy but even as Pep Guardiola mounts another rebuild, they manage to win more often than not and just might be able to make a run if things click.
Real Madrid may be a head-scratcher on this list, but there were elements of their performance in their 2-1 loss to City that offered some encouragement. There is a huge asterisk on this pick, considering it would require Madrid to actually stay on the right track, which is much easier said than done at a club as volatile as that one. Xabi Alonso's intense, high-press approach allowed them to stay competitive against City – and just might be a winning strategy in the long run, too.
