On paper, England ought to be prohibitive favorites for their round of 16 tie against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca on Sunday evening. Their star striker is a Ballon d'Or contender, his supporting cast made up of Champions League finalists, title winners and multiple players who command nine-figure transfer fees.
Set against them, a team whose talismanic forward has just been released by Premier League mid-table side Fulham after a season in which he scored 10 goals in 43 games. Much of the Mexican squad play their football in a domestic league ranked 22nd in strength by Opta, in quality terms, about equidistant between the second and third tiers in England. A handful of youngsters show promise for the 2030 World Cup and beyond. For plenty of others in Javier Aguirre's squad, this is not their first rodeo. The talent difference is stark.
And yet, when it comes to the game as it will actually be played on the field, projection models and bookmakers can barely separate these two. The former make England slight favorites, projection models like Opta's and Expecting Goals put the Three Lions a little over 50% to advance. As far as can be told, this is not because anyone has greatly soured on Thomas Tuchel's side -- the last three games have been an almighty slog, but this is still the team that blitzed Croatia -- but due to everything else stacked up against England. This game might be as good a test as any to see whether talent trumps all else.
England refuse to view it in those terms. "For us, we don't care where we play," said England midfielder Declan Rice. "We're just turning up to do a job. Obviously, it's going to be unreal, but it's just another stadium we get to play at."
Mexico's record at the Azteca suggests this is anything but "another stadium." In 89 competitive matches at the ground, El Tri have won 70, drawn 17 and lost just two. Admittedly, the bulk of those games are against North American teams that are hardly on England's level, but if history and aura count for anything, particularly in terms of imbuing a lesser side with belief, then there is plenty of that to be drawn upon. In the World Cup games at the ground, they sit at 7-3-0 with eight clean sheets.
Mexico have never been eliminated at the Azteca. England have, "the head of [Diego] Maradona and ... the hand of God" inflicting one of football's most famous defeats on the Three Lions in 1986. Tuchel hopes that 40 years later "is a good moment to make peace with the stadium and turn things around," but finding much in the way of serenity for a visiting team in Mexico City is easier said than done.
Facing a deeply partisan crowd at the eighth-largest football stadium on the planet would be a challenge enough. Ecuador can attest to the hostility of Mexico City before a ball has been kicked, their federation complaining to FIFA over the noise outside their hotel before the round of 32 match. Local reports said around 1,000 people gathered on Tuesday night, bringing noisemakers and playing folk song "Cielito Lindo" before police moved them back.
England's Football Association had hoped to keep their base a secret and yet players were greeted on arrival by hundreds of fans chanting Mexico and booing them. Though the tumult over a rescheduled kick off time -- reports suggested the match could be moved to a midday local time but it has since been confirmed the game will take place as scheduled at 6 p.m. local time, 8 p.m. ET -- was initially put down to FIFA fearing thunderstorms, though it has since been suggested that there were safety fears over staging the game in the evening after an afternoon of partying and drinking in Mexico City.
The hostility of the environment may be among the most pronounced that England players have felt in careers predominantly confined to Europe, but the challenges of altitude are not so easily faced in the Premier League. The Estadio Azteca sits 7,352 feet above sea level, a fair whack higher than pub quiz staple The Hawthorns, the highest ground above sea level in England at 551 feet. Indeed, take England's highest point, Scafell Pike, double it and you still need to find the best part of 1,000 feet to get up to the altitude of Mexico City.
Former England Under-21 midfielder and CBS Sports analyst Nigel Reo-Coker experienced the shock of altitude and the Azteca as a player with the Montreal Impact, who played against Club America in the 2015 CONCACAF Champions League final. Even with some experience of playing at altitude, both against Colorado Rapids in MLS and in overcoming Pachuca in the quarterfinals of the CCL, the game quite literally took Reo-Coker's breath away.
"It was difficult to catch your breath," he says. "It really took 40-45 minutes to get into the game. All that time, you're still trying to breathe, to get up to the level of the game. Technically, it doesn't affect you. It is literally just your sprinting. When you do that, every time, you're trying to get your breath back. That's what makes it difficult.
"It is like the first day of preseason when you do really intense running. It's hot, you can't catch your breath, you're constantly fighting for it and the heat is making it even more difficult. And all the while, 80,000 Mexicans are probably abusing you.
"Tactically, the players know they have an advantage you don't. If they start the game fast and really start pressuring you from the off, with the crowd behind them, the opposition will make mistakes. They go 1-0 up, and all of a sudden, in a knockout game, the other team is thinking we have to try harder. They do that in altitude and an environment that they're not used to. That's how you lose your rhythm."
At this height, experts estimate a decrease of anywhere between three and nine percent in total distance covered for non-acclimatised athletes and an even more profound drop-off of 21% in high-velocity running. That has already shone through in data provided to CBS Sports by Gradient Sports. In all three of their group stage games, Mexican players logged significantly greater distances covered at high speeds, between 20 and 25 kilometres per hour, than their opponents. In the opener Mexico covered a combined 66.5 miles, a relatively standard distance for a World Cup game. South Africa, meanwhile, clocked in at a little over 60 miles in a match where they only had 40% of the ball.
In the round of 32, Moises Caicedo covered nearly 16% less distance at those speeds than he had in the previous game against Germany. Some of that may have been a function of Ecuador having more of the ball, but the heavy-footed way in which even this team came out of the block suggests it can be a struggle for even teams who are used to such circumstances. Ecuador play their home internationals in Quito, the second most elevated capital in the world, but spent the preceding weeks in Columbus, Ohio, and did not undertake any altitude preparation. Only they will know if that is something they ought to regret.
England, meanwhile, have known since the draw was made in December that their path might take them up to the Central Mexican Plateau. Over the last 12 months, the Football Association has helped players install red light saunas and hyperbaric chambers in their homes while the squad have also used hypoxic (low oxygen) tents that will simulate the thinner air at altitude. The Football Association also spoke to their counterparts in the Rugby Football Union and British Olympic Association for advice on how to adapt.
The conclusion Tuchel reached?
"My understanding is that we cannot adapt to the altitude," he said earlier this week. "That is just a huge advantage that Mexico will have. It just takes too much time. We have only three days in between this match [and the round of 32 win over DR Congo.] This is physically just not possible."
This is why much of England's past record in Mexico, quarterfinalists in 1970 as well as 16 years later, is almost irrelevant. A year before the latter of those tournaments, Sir Bobby Robson's side played two games in a dress rehearsal event. Ahead of the World Cup itself, they spent two weeks training for altitude in Colorado.
In 2026, Tuchel has had to plan for several different World Cups in one. The group stage saw England play in Arlington's air-conditioned AT&T Stadium and the drizzle of a Foxborough afternoon. Get past Mexico, and the Three Lions would likely face Brazil in Miami Gardens, where temperatures are expected to be in the 90s with thundery showers currently predicted for July 11th. The Florida training camp they undertook pre-tournament may stand them in good stead if they get that far. It is easy to see why the focus of England's preparations was beating the heat when the path of a second-placed team could have taken them through Los Angeles and Toronto.
England may not be able to master the conditions, but that does not mean their destiny is out of their hands. It just might require them to play in a way more befitting to their circumstances than the up-down, all-athletic Premier League football that Tuchel wanted to bring to the Three Lions.
"You have to pick and choose your moments," said Reo-Coker. "You cannot play high tempo, Premier League football for 90 minutes if you aren't acclimatzed. You cannot overexert yourself.
"This is a game where maybe you let Mexico have the ball and play counterattack. England fans may not like it, but it's the reality of the environment. They have to be smart. Focus on counters and make sure you don't concede in those first 30 minutes. It is going to be so physically demanding.
"England are still favorites, but it is going to be very, very hard."
