UFC 328 fight card predictions: Expert picks, odds for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland in Newark
Check out who the experts at CBS Sports are taking in the pair of title fights on Saturday
Two championships are on the line at UFC 328 on Saturday night. In the main event, Khamzat Chimaev will make the first defense of his middleweight championship when he faces former champion Sean Strickland in a bout driven by bad blood.
Chimaev and Strickland have made big threats and have already delivered somewhat, with Chimaev kicking Strickland at the pre-fight press conference. Things will be settled in the Octagon, though it's anyone's guess how things play out before and after the bell.
In the co-main event, Joshua Van will put the flyweight championship on the line against Tatsuro Taira in a bout that promises plenty of action.
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Familiar names litter the rest of the card, including a significant bout in the heavyweight division that sees Alexander Volkov take on Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let's look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.
UFC 328 fight card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (Odds as of May 8)
- Khamzat Chimaev (c) -575 vs. Sean Strickland +425, middleweight title
- Tatsuro Taira -162 vs. Joshua Van (c) +136, flyweight title
- Alexander Volkov -142 vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta +120, heavyweights
- Sean Brady -170 vs. Joaquin Buckley +142, welterweights
- King Green -425 vs. Jeremy Stephens +330, lightweights
- Ateba Gautier -1100 vs. Ozzy Diaz +700, middleweights
- Yaroslav Amosov -192 vs. Joel Alvarez +160, welterweights
- Grant Dawson -166 vs. Mateusz Rebecki +140, lightweights
- Jared Gordon -310 vs. Jim Miller +250, lightweights
- Marco Tulio -185 vs. Roman Kopylov +154, middleweights
- Pat Sabatini -205 vs. William Gomis +170, featherweights
- Baisangur Susurkaev -700 vs. Djorden Santos +500, middleweights
- Jose Ochoa -170 vs. Clayton Carpenter +142, flyweights
UFC 328 predictions, picks
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.
| Campbell | Brookhouse | Mahjouri | Mormile | Wise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimaev (c) vs. Strickland | Chimaev UD | Chimaev SUB1 | Chimaev UD | Chimaev UD | Chimaev SUB2 |
| Van (c) vs. Taira | Van TKO4 | Taira UD | Van KO4 | Taira TKO4 | Taira UD |
| Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta | Volkov SD | Volkov UD | Volkov UD | Volkov UD | Cortes-Acosta UD |
| Brady vs. Buckley | Brady UD | Brady KO2 | Brady UD | Brady UD | Buckley TKO2 |
| Green vs. Stephens | Green TKO3 | Green UD | Green UD | Stephens KO1 | Green TKO2 |
| Records to date | 10-10 | 12-8 | 12-8 | 12-8 | 10-10 |
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland predictions
Campbell: From his stingy takedown defense to his elite technique and ability to make the build toward Saturday's fight so personal, there are reasons to suggest Strickland may be able to slow down Chimaev's dominant style better than any other elite middleweight at the moment. But there's still a major difference between remaining competitive against an unbeaten champion and having the complete game necessary to actually beat him. The one-dimensional style of Strickland's offensive attack should prove to be the limiting factor toward his success, not to mention the amount of cardio he will need to sacrifice in order to keep the fight on the feet for as long as possible. Expect a spirited effort from Strickland but one that comes up short over the 25-minute distance as the combination of Chimaev's takedowns and fluid striking will overcome Strickland's stubborn ability to survive five rounds.
Brookhouse: Strickland's takedown defense isn't that good, while Chimaev's grappling is truly outstanding. What Strickland is very good at is getting back to his feet, but doing that against Dricus du Plessis is much different than doing it against Chimaev. Strickland also lacks the kind of one-shot power that would cause Chimaev to hesitate to close the distance and initiate grappling. That Chimaev is extra motivated to teach Strickland a lesson means he won't be looking to drag things out once the fight hits the ground. Look for Chimaev to bulldoze his way inside, put Strickland on the mat and punish him before eventually catching a neck or limb in a scramble and forcing the tap.
Mahjouri: Strickland can't learn enough grappling in a lifetime to compete with Chimaev. That's not meant to slander Strickland, but rather to emphasize Chimaev's dominance. Only two UFC fighters have pushed Chimaev: NCAA Division II wrestling champion Kamaru Usman and ADCC world championship jiu-jitsu medalist Gilbert Burns. In both cases, they had a complementary base that predated their MMA careers. There is a glimmer of hope for Strickland. His takedown defense and, more importantly, his get-ups are paramount to dethroning Chimaev. In the first Dricus du Plessis fight, Strickland only gave up 128 seconds of control time against six takedowns. In their rematch, Du Plessis only kept him down for five seconds. If Strickland can keep his back off the mat for prolonged periods, he can pull off the upset as he did against Israel Adesanya and Anthony Hernandez. I've incorrectly counted Strickland down before, but I think it'll take someone with a different base to beat the champ.
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira predictions
Campbell: Given Taira's finishing ability both on the feet and the ground, seeing him as a slight betting favorite against the defending champion isn't necessarily shocking. The result, however, could add even more fuel to Van's fire. The 24-year-old breakout star is still dealing with criticism from those -- including Taira -- who don't believe his title win last December against Alexandre Pantoja is legitimate because it resulted from an injury just 26 seconds into the fight. Van is supremely motivated, has stopped 81% of takedowns attempted inside the Octagon and arguably has the best boxing skills of anyone in the division. Van also has a battle-tested chin, which could open the door for a late stoppage win should Taira take too many chances.
Brookhouse: This is a very tough fight to call. Both men are just hitting the point where they're fighting consistent high-level competition, which means we are also learning who they are as elite fighters. Both fighters have good -- and dangerous -- striking, and I believe that's where this fight is decided. Van's takedown defense and ability to get off his back likely negate any chance of Taira looking for a win on the ground. Van is more technical in his striking, while Taira has more immediate finishing power. This fight is likely to be decided by a single round, with someone edging out a 48-47 win on the scorecards. Taira has the potential to produce bigger single moments that can steal rounds, so the lean is toward the challenger to take a decision victory.
Mahjouri: The flyweight youth movement is in full swing. Van and Taira, the two youngest-ranked flyweights, collide for the division's top prize. What's great about the fight is that each fighter has tools in their opponent's realm. Van's solid takedown defense and get-ups empower his striking. Taira has a nasty straight right and leg kicks to set up his takedowns. I'm not convinced Van should be the underdog. This is the champ's second straight camp training for an elite grappler. Van builds momentum the longer the fight goes, and Taira struggles on the back foot. If Van has evolved his solid grappling base, he'll make Taira pay on the feet.
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta predictions
Campbell: After years of stops and starts as a heavyweight contender on the road to a UFC title shot, this could be Volkov's final and best chance to break through. A slight betting underdog against a streaking Cortes-Acosta, the 37-year-old Volkov was never properly rewarded by UFC CEO Dana White, who believed the 6-foot-7 Russian's split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane in 2024 resulted from bad judging. Given current champion Tom Aspinall's unknown return date following double eye surgery and the fact that an interim title will be at stake at the White House in June, a Volkov win over Cortes-Acosta could make him undeniable. Volkov's size and reach advantage, along with his improved takedown defense, could be enough to edge out the decision, especially if he can establish enough early calf kicks to slow his quicker opponent down.
Who wins Chimaev vs. Strickland, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.
