UFC 328 predictions, odds, best bets: Khamzat Chimaev and big props among top picks to consider
The action heats up on Saturday night from Newark and there's plenty of ways to get in on it
UFC 328 goes down this Saturday from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. In the main event, Khamzat Chimaev will put his middleweight championship on the line against former champion Sean Strickland.
The build to Chimaev and Strickland has been aggressive, to say the least and that bad blood will spill over into the Octagon on Saturday night.
Another title is on the line, with Joshua Van making the first defense of his flyweight championship against elite contender Tatsuro Taira in what promises to be an action-packed fight.
With such big fights anchoring the card, there will be plenty of interest in the fights at the sportsbooks. With that in mind, we've once again looked at all five main card fights to identify our best bets for each.
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After a rough 1-4 record for our best bets for UFC 327, we are sitting at 9-11 for the year. Now we look ahead to this weekend with the goal of getting back in the black, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens
Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
I don't think there's much of a chance of submission in this fight. In fact, there probably won't be any grappling whatsoever. Green and Stephens are both on the deep back side of their respective careers and are both happy to stand and trade strikes. There's certainly a chance that either man could be stopped in one of those exchanges. Both men have suffered some brutal stoppages in their careers and have delivered the same. Still, this feels like a fight where neither man fully breaks the other and the fight drags along to the scorecards, where Green should get the win, but the over feels like a safer bet than taking Green by decision (+110).
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
Sean Brady moneyline (-175)
The math heading into this fight is fairly straightforward. Brady averages 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time, and while Buckley sports a respectable 72% takedown defense, better wrestlers have been a real problem for him. Kamaru Usman took Buckley down four times in his most recent fight, and once the fight hit the floor, Usman held top control for nearly 13 minutes. That's the blueprint, and it's one Brady can easily follow if he sticks to the game plan. As long as Brady can safely navigate space on the feet, close distance and get to Buckley's body, this should be a fairly straightforward fight.
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Alexander Volkov via decision (+130)
Volkov is in a weird place. He is among the most consistent heavyweights in the world but is rarely talked about as such. Since the start of 2021, Volkov has gone 7-3, with the three losses coming to Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane (twice). The second Gane loss was highly controversial, with only one media member tracked by MMA Decisions scoring the fight for Gane, versus 19 media members leaning Volkov's direction. That fight makes for a great example of the ripple effects of questionable judging. Had Volkov won, he almost certainly fights Tom Aspinall for the heavyweight title at UFC 321 instead of Gane. Aspinall then doesn't get brutally poked in both eyes and sidelined, and UFC Freedom 250 doesn't feature an interim title fight between Gane and Alex Pereira.
Regardless, Volkov has really settled into his style, using his length and patience to frustrate opponents. Cortes-Acosta has been on a thrilling run of late, but Volkov presents issues his other opponents have not. There's a lot for Cortes-Acosta to have to navigate against Volkov, and I'm not confident he can do so.
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Over 3.5 rounds (-125)
There are a lot of unanswered questions for both men. While both have a few fights against top-level fighters, most of what they've accomplished has come against guys outside that level, which is understandable given their respective ages. Taira is a favorite, and that feels correct, but I don't know how confident I feel in him in this fight and definitely not at his current moneyline price. There are going to be some big exchanges early, but this fight has every chance of settling into a tactical battle punctuated with the occasional big moment. Take the over and hope no one lands a bomb early.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Khamzat Chimaev via submission (-105)
There's really no reason to think this fight goes well for Strickland. Strickland defends takedowns at a roughly 75% clip while Chimaev lands 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Chimaev's takedown game is also completely different from what other fighters bring. Strickland is going to want to move and use his boxing, but he doesn't hit with enough one-punch power to keep Chimaev from closing distance. Once Chimaev gets his hands on Strickland, he will take him down. On the ground, Strickland can either accept the position and try to ride it out without being submitted or he can try to scramble, which is where Chimaev thrives. Expect Chimaev to put Strickland on his back and grind away until there's something he can bend, twist or squeeze for the finish.
