College football's Week 1 officially kicks off with a handful of underwhelming games Thursday, and frankly no realistic contenders for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. But let's break down the latest odds and trends for college football's biggest individual award from BetMGM, with those numbers set to change by the end of the weekend and weekly going forward. Use the latest BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you bet on college football:
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Are you aware that no preseason Heisman favorite has won the award since Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in 2014? In fact, that's the only time the preseason favorite has won it on record, dating to 2009 as numbers get rather sketchy prior to that.
Who would have guessed the past two Heisman winners would come from not exactly usual football powerhouse schools in Indiana (Fernando Mendoza) and Colorado (Travis Hunter)? Mendoza opened last season at +5500 to win it and Hunter +5000 in 2024.
Usually, guys among the favorites win it â just not the preseason betting favorite. But there are two interesting guys in that Mendoza/Hunter odds ballpark entering 2026 in Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (+4000) and South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers (+4000), two potential first-round picks in the 2027 NFL Draft.
The betting favorite entering the season (sorry, not counting Week 0) is Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr at +750, and he has stayed steady there all offseason at BetMGM. The book is very exposed on the redshirt sophomore, as he is No. 1 in handle on this prop at 14.7% and No. 2 in tickets at 10.7%. Those odds are the longest for a Heisman Trophy favorite entering any of the last 20 seasons, per ESPN.
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In his first season as the Irish starter, Carr threw for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns and just six picks. The TD passes were tied for the most in a player's first 12 career starts at Notre Dame. It seems almost impossible that the Golden Domers haven't had a Heisman winner since receiver Tim Brown in 1987.
The Heisman is largely a popularity contest, no program is more popular than Notre Dame in this country, and the Irish are ranked in the top four of the preseason AP Poll for the first time since 2006. It all sets up well for Carr, who is a +400 second-favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. He would be Notre Dame's eighth Heisman winner to tie USC for most.
The favorite to be the top pick, and where BetMGM is most exposed for the Heisman, is on Texas quarterback Arch Manning (+800), who obviously has that name recognition baked in. Yet for all the collegiate success that grandfather Archie and uncle Eli had at Ole Miss and that fellow uncle Peyton had at Tennessee under center, none of them won the Heisman.
Archie finished top four twice, Eli third once and Peyton second in 1997 to Michigan's Charles Woodson. Arch Manning is No. 1 in tickets at the book at 10.8% and No. 2 in handle at 14.3%. He closed last season strong, totaling 15 touchdowns and just one turnover with an average of 313.6 total yards per game in that span. Manning finished as one of only three FBS quarterbacks overall with 3,500+ total yards, 25+ pass TDs and 10+ rush TDs. He's your +155 favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
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Two other quarterbacks taking decent action at the book are Ohio State's Julian Sayin (+1200; third in tickets at 8.4%) and Oregon's Dante Moore (+1100; third in handle at 10.3%). Could Indiana have back-to-back winners? TCU transfer Josh Hoover replaces Mendoza and has dropped from an open of +1200 to +1500 with only 2.8% of handle and 2.6% of tickets.
The biggest riser has been Alabama QB Keelon Russell from an open of +8000 to +2500. So the book is exposed on him, as well as on Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, with JKS moving from an open of +8000 to +6600. The non-QB with the shortest odds is Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith at +1400. The book is moderately exposed on him with 5.8% of tickets and 5.4% of handle.
It's not a very strong Week 1 schedule overall in college football and no true Heisman hopefuls are going head-to-head. But we do get Sayin and No. 1 Ohio State visiting Manning and No. 5 Texas as the marquee matchup of Week 2, so that's when we likely see our first major odds movement. I am playing a bit on the Buckeyes' Smith simply because he's the nation's most electric talent and decent Heisman value. Check out CFB expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
