CBS Sports HQ continues its tour of NFL training camps Thursday with a visit to Tampa to break down the 2026 Buccaneers. And it could be the end of an era there, because quarterback Baker Mayfield's contract will expire following the season and coach Todd Bowles is on one of the league's hotter seats.
I lived in Tampa for many years and worked at the Tribune, but I have no idea what to expect from the 2026 Bucs, and it doesn't appear any of the local experts do, either. It doesn't help matters that Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea this week demanded a trade for contract reasons, but I'm going to just skip over that and assume things get worked out. Losing Vea would be devastating for that defense, especially when it comes to defending the run.
Tampa Bay entered last season's bye at 6-2 and looking like a legit Super Bowl contender and Mayfield an MVP candidate. In those eight games, the Bucs averaged 5.27 yards per play and had 14 completions of at least 20 air yards. However, in the final nine games the club was 2-7, averaged 4.95 yards per play and had seven completions of at least 20 air yards. That skid snapped Tampa Bay's run of five straight playoff appearances.
Mayfield's slide actually began a bit earlier. He was one of the NFL's top QBs through six games (team was 5-1) with 12 touchdowns and just one pick with a rating of 108.5, but he had 14 TDs and 10 picks in the final 11 (club was 3-8) for a rating of 80.6. The former Heisman Trophy winner finished with his fewest passing yards per game (217.2) and passing touchdowns (26) in a season since joining Bucs in 2023. And since then, Mayfield's 45 total turnovers are tied for the most in the league with Geno Smith.
Yet Mayfield wants a new contract starting at $50 million per season, and the Bucs just won't do that, as of now, so he will play this season on the final year of his three-year, $100 million deal and potentially hit free agency next winter â although Tampa Bay can always slap the franchise tag on him. He and the team had been talking for months and are far apart. You can understand why the Bucs would have concerns.
Mayfield was nearly out of the NFL when he arrived in Tampa, and while he played great the first 2.5 seasons, maybe that final 11-game stretch in 2025 is simply who Mayfield is. The 31-year-old had previously said he wanted a deal in place before the start of training camp or he would discontinue talks to focus on the field.
I think this is great news for the Bucs and any Over bettors on Mayfield props because financially motivated guys in contract years tend to put up big numbers and stay on the field. In 2023, the first season after Tom Brady retired, Mayfield bet on himself by taking a one-year, $4 million deal with the Bucs, and that risk ended up paying off huge. He has started every game since and in 2026 ranks 16th among quarterbacks in average pay at $33.33 million per year. The franchise tag is projected to rise to around $50 million in 2027, if you are wondering.
Mayfield is set Over/Under 3,599.5 passing yards and 25.5 touchdowns. He is +2500 to lead the league in yards, +3000 in touchdowns and +1400 in interceptions. Mayfield is +4500 for league MVP and +20000 for Offensive Player of the Year, which QBs no longer win. If you're interested in NFL betting and and futures betting on the top sports betting apps, you can head to our sports betting page for more information.
There are two major changes on that Tampa Bay offense this year. Future Hall of Fame receiver Mike Evans, the franchise's all-time leading scorer, left in free agency, and there's a new coordinator in Zac Robinson, formerly in the same role at division rival Atlanta.
In the previous two seasons under Robinson, the Falcons ranked 10th in the NFL in yards per play (5.6) and in passing yards per game (234.9) but 25th in average completions of at least 20 air yards per game (1.1). The coordinator's passing offense largely revolved around short dump-offs to tailback Bijan Robinson. So maybe Evans won't be missed too much, even though the Bucs were 14-8 and averaged 27.0 PPG the past two seasons with him, compared to 4-8 and averaging 24.0 PPG without him.
The Bucs have finished with eight or more wins in each of the past six years and are set at 8.5 for 2026. If they don't top that â the SportsLine Projection Model has 8.7 victories â then both Mayfield and Bowles likely are elsewhere in 2027.
I would lean Over both the yardage and TD totals, as Mayfield topped both last year despite himself playing through injuries and several others on the offense doing so as well. Baker has been durable, too, playing all 17 games every season in Tampa. Bet on guys in contract years. It's really that simple. The Bucs are +3.5 for Week 1 at Cincinnati.
