There are nine game on the Monday MLB schedule, meaning there are hundreds of options for fans who want to try their hand at MLB betting and home run prop betting. There are key division matchups on tap Monday, with the Twins hosting the White Sox in an AL Central rivalry and the Dodgers visiting the surprising Diamondbacks in an NL West showdown. Minnesota is a -155 money-line favorite against Chicago, while the Dodgers are -167 favorites at Arizona. Plenty of home runs should be hit Monday, and anyone who wants to wager on the best bet to hit a home run today needs to see the players SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is backing for his best home run bets today.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best Home Run picks for Monday
- Jo Adell (+358, DraftKings)
- James Wood (+350, BetMGM)
- Tyler Stephenson (+563, DraftKings)
Jo Adell, Angels (+358)
Adell is hitting .277 against left-handed pitchers this year, and six of his 18 hits have left the yard. When he gets hits off lefties, they are leaving the yard at a high rate, and Kyle Freeland has had some incredible issues with home runs against righties this year.
Freeland stands at 11 long balls allowed in 33 innings and the southpaw can't blame the altitude at Coors Field, being that he's surrendered seven of his 12 total home runs on the road in 23 innings.
Righties have a .872 SLG% against Freeland's fastball, while averaging over 91 mph exit velocity on the pitch, and five of the six home runs that Adell has hit off lefties have been on the fastball. I'm looking for him to hone in on on Freeland and take him out to the rocks in left-center field.
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James Wood, Nationals (+350)
The Nationals star is hitting .291 with 12 home runs against right-handed pitchers so far this year, and Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has run into some home run issues lately. He's surrendered five homers across his last two starts with four of those coming against left-handed bats, and Wood is one of the best power-hitting lefties in the league. His bat speed gives him the ability to take on relievers and still be at an advantage, but the matchup with Alcantara is why we're picking this one.
The former Cy Young winner will lean on a fastball and change-up against the lefties in this Nationals lineup, and Wood has racked up eight home runs on those two pitches from righties this year with an xSLG over .800 on the fastball and over .500 on the change-up.
He's also produced some high average exit velocities, with 97+ mph on the right-handed fastballs actually being down a couple of mph from last year. Is there really still room for growth in his exit velocity numbers? It seems so, which is insane to think about.
Tyler Stephenson, Reds (+563)
Stephenson should see the sinker about 35% of the time on Monday against Luindar Avila and against that pitch last year, he had a run value of 7. He also slugged .603 with a hard-hit rate of 57.7% on the sinker, and this year he's been even better with a run value of five while slugging .909 and a hard hit rate of 60%. For context, Stephenson has the second-highest slugging of qualified batters against the sinker, just above Kyle Schwarber and just behind Ryan Jeffers.
Despite Avila allowing just one home run this year, he gets a negative shift in the ballpark and is followed by a very susceptible bullpen. The price on Stephenson is showing some value here above +560, in a game projecting near three home runs as the top game on the board today for the long ball.
