It's trade deadline day, so all eight games on the Monday MLB schedule are at night. That means fans who want to wager on home run player props have time to get their wagers in, and there are plenty of players to choose from. The marquee matchup is Cubs vs. Dodgers, set for an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Other enticing matchups include Cardinals vs. Yankees and Padres vs. Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are -124 money line favorites in the consensus MLB odds, with Chicago a +107 underdog, and the total for runs scored is set at 8.
If you're interested in wagering on MLB player props on the best sports betting apps, you can check out the SportsLine Projection Model for games like Dodgers vs. Cubs. And for MLB home run props, SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has broken down all of Monday's matchups and found his best bets to hit a home run today. Sign up to wager on Monday home run props at BetMGM using the promo code CBSSPORTS and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB handicapper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best home run picks for Monday
- CJ Abrams, Nationals (+330, FanDuel)
- Rafael Devers, Giants (+322, DraftKings)
- Jonathan Aranda, Rays (+430, DraftKings)
CJ Abrams (+330 Fanduel)
The left-handed hitters in this Washington Nationals order find themselves in a nice hitting spot tonight, as they'll have nine guaranteed at-bats in one of the best hitter's parks in all of baseball for lefties. Not to mention Aaron Nola is on the mound opposing them, possessing a .528 SLG% and 16 home runs allowed to hitters from the left side, thanks in large part to giving up hard contact more than half of the time. Allowing all of those hard-hit balls to lefties is one thing but couple that with Nola also allowing fly balls around 32% of the time and it becomes clear that this is a spot to bet on some homers.
Six hitters in the Nationals order are at 30% or higher for their fly ball rate, with James Wood and CJ Abrams being two of three lefties in there, so either is good with me for a home run, but the price on Abrams was about a dollar better here. I like his matchup against Nola's pitches, and if he can just simply hunt the fastball, I think we can park one in the seats with Abrams tonight in Philly.
Rafael Devers (+322, DraftKings)
Devers hit a home run Sunday night in San Diego and now has three in his last 10 games. It's yet to be confirmed who will pitch for the Rangers but it looks like Cal Quantrill could be the starter, and I love this matchup for Devers if we do get Quantrill on the mound. Lefties are hitting .273 off him, with five home runs in 30 innings this year, and his cutter and fastball make up about 50% of the offerings to lefties. Those pitches have an xSLG at .544 and .623 this year, with four home runs allowed, and Devers has raked against opposing fastballs.
Jonathan Aranda (+430, DraftKings)
Junior Caminero will be a popular pick for a home run tonight and for good reason. He hit two homers off of Michael Lorenzen in a very small sample size last year, and four of the five balls he put in play were hit hard. The price on him reflects the possibility of him hitting a home run, but where I'm finding some value is on Aranda at +430. Lorenzen has allowed 12 home runs in 53 innings against lefties thus far and Aranda does his damage against right-handed pitching, with 12 of his 13 homers coming off righties. We're getting this game in the best park to hit in all of baseball, Coors Field, and the bullpen behind Lorenzen is certainly prone to giving up the long ball at home as well.
