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If the Chicago Cubs are home on a Friday, that almost surely means they are playing the only MLB matinee of the day. And their first such matchup at Wrigley Field is this afternoon with a 2:20 ET first pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates. I have a same-game parlay for the first meeting of the season between the NL Central rivals.

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Cubs vs. Pirates same-game parlay (+100, FanDuel)

  • Cubs ML
  • Alt Under 9.5

It's my second baseball SGP of the week, and the first cashed Wednesday on Blue Jays alt +2.5 and alt Under 9.5 vs. the Dodgers with Toronto winning 4-3. I'll just be honest in that I generally need a reason not to back my Cubs in one of these Friday matinees that they usually fare well in. I don't see any reason not to here. Winds are blowing in and it's chilly so it would be pretty surprising if they combined for double-digit runs. Check out other expert picks in the daily SportsLine newsletter. 

Both teams were off Thursday so both bullpens are fully ready. And that can matter when playing a total. I'll probably be picking most of these Cubbies home Friday matinees, and I will say one thing to definitely look for is the rare times that Chicago was off Thursday and the other team was not. That scenario doesn't happen often but it's such an extreme travel edge for the Cubs that I always pounce when it does. Throwing that out there in case I forge to mention

It has been a rough week to be a Cubs fan, that's for sure, as arguably their two best starting pitchers in former mega-prospect Cade Horton and 2026 Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd landed on the injured list. Horton is out for the season.

The previous Cubs ace, Justin Steele, is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and might return this summer. So the team is going to have to go out and find starting pitching. I definitely leaned Cubbies winning the Central when the season began but no longer do. Chicago is +210 second-favorite behind Milwaukee (+175).

Whereas lefty Shota Imanaga (0-1, 4.50 ERA) was considered about the No. 4 starter back in the spring, he's probably up to No. 2 now and takes the mound Friday. The problem with the 32-year-old of late is that he doesn't go very deep into games, as he hasn't thrown more than 5.2 innings in his past seven outings dating to 2025, so it's pretty good timing that Imanaga starts following an off day with the bullpen rested.

Now in his third big-league season, the Japanese import has made four starts against the Pirates and has owned them at 2-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 26.0 innings. No active Pittsburgh batter has gone yard off him. 

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If Pittsburgh can hit a little, it can definitely contend in the Central (+370) with a rotation headed by Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller – the Cubs catch a major break in that they avoid both right-handers in this series. Instead, they get the likely weak link of the group Friday in Carmen Mlodzinski (0-0, 4.00 ERA).

The converted reliever has only gone at least five innings to qualify for a win a couple of times in his three-plus season career and not in either start in 2026. Mlodzinski did have success vs. the Cubs in 2025 with a 1.38 ERA over 13.0 innings spanning four appearances (two starts).

No Chicago batters have double-digit career at-bats off him, but three have good splits in Nico Hoerner (4-for-6), Dansby Swanson (4-for-7) and Ian Happ (3-for-7). Hoerner's .366 batting average with runners in scoring position since the start of last season leads the majors. Happ missed Wednesday's game with a sore heel but is expected back.

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Today will mark the first professional game at Wrigley Field for Pirates shortstop and MLB No. 1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin. The Pirates announced they had signed him to a seven-year, $140 extension early Wednesday -- and then strangely didn't start him in Wednesday's home loss to San Diego, although he pinch-hit and had a sacrifice fly. Griffin is only batting .167 with a .273 OBP but remains the +260 NL Rookie of the Year favorite.

The Cubs haven't lost a season series to the Pirates since 2014 and were 10-3 last year, including 5-2 at Wrigley. Chicago was an excellent 43-32 in day games in 2025 but 3-4 so far in '26.