MLB picks: Best bets for Braves vs. Diamondbacks, Mets vs. Giants on Thursday

There are just two MLB games on the schedule for Thursday evening, with a third having already started in the afternoon. The night games have the Atlanta Braves flying out to the desert to open a series with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants hosting the New York Mets. All four teams have playoff aspirations after disappointing 2025 campaigns 

We're taking a look at the best MLB bets for Thursday night's games and offering some recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. It was a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money line betting picks last season. It also excelled at making home run prop betting picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

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Best MLB bets for Thursday, April 2

Diamondbacks +1.5 vs. Braves

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson quietly had an effective 2025 season, pitching to a 3.39 ERA in 154 innings for a Diamondbacks team that was largely starved for quality pitching. Nelson was roughed up by the Dodgers in his first outing this year, but he'll be back on the bump Thursday against the visiting Braves. Opposing him will be Reynaldo Lopez, who missed almost the entirety of 2025 with a shoulder issue after a breakout 2024 campaign. The Braves need all the healthy pitchers they can get right now given the glut of injuries suffered in spring training. In his first start this year, Lopez's fastball velocity was down a tick from his 2024 and 2025 showings. The SportsLine model has the Diamondbacks covering the run line in 66% of its simulations.

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Giants +1.5 vs. Mets

After a series to forget in St. Louis, the new-look Mets take a trip to California for a series with the Giants. It's been a bumpy first week on the job for new San Francisco manager Tony Vitello, who jumped from the college ranks to take over in the dugout with the Giants. His team has scored the fewest runs in MLB so far and will look for improvement against Mets starter David Peterson. Former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray gets the ball for the Giants. The SportsLine model likes San Francisco here, as the Giants cover in 67% of its simulations.

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