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American League East rivals face off in Tuesday's MLB on TBS matchup, with the New York Yankees hosting the Toronto Blue Jays. New York (29-19) is three games behind the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, as the Yankees have won just three of their past 10 games. The Blue Jays (21-26) are 10.5 games behind Tampa Bay but are 5-5 in their past 10. 

New York won the opener of the three-game series on Monday, and right-hander Will Warren (5-1, 3.42 ERA) is set to start for the Yankees on Tuesday night against Toronto righty Dylan Cease (2-1, 2.41). New York is a -137 home favorite on the money line in the latest consensus Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds, with Toronto priced at +115.   

If you're interested in MLB betting, you need to see what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has to say about Blue Jays vs. Yankees on Tuesday night before making any MLB bets of your own. Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who is up 133.4 units dating back to the 2022 MLB season on straight bets, prop betting and parlay betting. Here's a look at his best bets for Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Tuesday.

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Cubs vs. Braves best bets

  • Aaron Judge 1st at-bat strikeout (+185, BetMGM): 0.5 units
  • Spencer Jones 1st at-bat strikeout (+135, BetMGM): 0.5 units
  • Aaron Judge 3+ strikeouts (+690, DraftKings): 0.25 units

Cease has been on an impressive run through May, covering seven innings in each start with just four earned runs and 26 strikeouts in 21 innings. He visits the Bronx as a heat wave hits New York this week, making for a tougher environment for pitchers since the ball should carry well. To make matters worse, winds will be blowing out in Yankee Stadium around game time, and sports meteorologist Kevin Roth's model gives this game a 29% bump to home run potential compared to the MLB average.

Cease has kept the ball on the ground with regularity, though, running a nearly 50% ground-ball rate this year, and a minuscule HR/FB rate, so he is capable of keeping the Yankees' hitters in the yard based on his skill set.

Warren starts for the Yankees after they barely squeaked out a win in the first game of this series. The young starter will need to keep Toronto off the board in the first five innings to keep pace with Cease and give the Yankees bats a chance to come around like they did later in the game Monday. 

Warren has found mixed results this year but I'm expecting a stronger outing with a lower strikeout total, where he leans on the 45% ground-ball rate and gets weaker contact. Toronto's offense is near league-worst for OPS against righties over the past few weeks and Warren has quelled his issues to left-handed batters from last year, though he's still allowed five home runs to lefties in just over 20 innings. If he can keep the ball in the yard, I think we see a rather low-scoring F5 thanks to these starters.

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Spencer Jones 1st at-bat strikeout

Cease continues to rack up the strikeouts and is currently running a swinging strike rate above 15%. Last year, he stifled the Yankees for 6 2/3 innings in his only outing against them, giving up just one run and one hit, while striking out nine batters and walking only two. 

Cease was brilliant while pitching in the Bronx in that start and while that isn't to say tonight will be a carbon copy, I do think the form he comes in with and his past performance against these hitters is something to note. You'll have a lineup that hasn't faced him much over the last couple of years since he spent the past two seasons in the National League, and Jones is still getting his feet wet at the MLB level, which should provide at least one strikeout. 

I don't dislike the over 7.5 full-game line on strikeouts for Cease, but I do worry with the intense heat and rising humidity, will pitchers become fatigued at a rapid pace Monday night? Furthermore, Cease does have walk issues from time to time as his command can slip, so even if he's striking lefties out at a 40% rate over the past month and projects well against this lineup, I want to be cautious to not go too deep.

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Aaron Judge 1st at-bat strikeout; Judge 3+ strikeouts 

Judge has struck out at least once in all but three games since the start of May, with multiple strikeouts in six of 17 games, including a three-strikeout performance earlier this month. Cease is the type of pitcher you can have a tough day against, and Judge is no stranger to that happening in this matchup. He struck out in all three at-bats against the Toronto right hander when they faced off last year. 

The Blue Jays also have some relief arms that can rack up strikeouts with ease, so I'm taking a quarter unit and betting on Judge to strike out a few times, while my main play is on the first at-bat. Ryan McMahon, Anthony Volpe, and pretty much anyone near the bottom of the Yankees order looks good for strikeouts tonight, so I'll be live betting on the at-bats the first time through the order. 

Also, I usually continue to bet the strikeout in each plate appearance if the pitcher is rolling, so keep an eye on how Cease looks here. 

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