Tigers are struggling without Tarik Skubal, but trading their recovering ace still seems unlikely... for no
The Tigers are 5-12 since Skubal got hurt, but Detroit is very much in the playoff hunt in the watered-down American League
The Detroit Tigers will take all the good news they can get right now. Prior to Monday's loss at Comerica Park (CLE 8, DET 2), ace lefty and reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal threw a bullpen session, his second since having surgery to remove from a loose body from his elbow on May 6. He said it was a full bullpen similar to his pre-start routine.
"Coming off a bullpen session like that, no symptoms at all of what I was experiencing prior," Skubal said (via MLB.com). "And that wouldn't be the case two weeks ago, when I threw my last bullpen before having the surgery. So I think all things considered, it's a very positive thing. And I haven't had any symptoms since the surgery."
The usual recovery period for surgery to remove a loose body is 2-3 months, though Skubal underwent a new, less invasive procedure -- the "NanoNeedle," as it's called -- that will chop weeks off the recovery time. For comparison, New York Yankees lefty Carlos Rodón had loose bodies removed from his elbow in October. He didn't make his season debut until May 10.
Although it is very encouraging Skubal is throwing full bullpens less than two weeks out from surgery, there is no set date for his return to Detroit's rotation just yet. There are still boxes he has to check with his rehab, which likely includes pitching in a minor-league rehab game(s). So far though, Skubal's rehab is going about as well as anyone could have hoped.
"I'd love to sit here and say I'm going to be back on this date. I just don't know that," Skubal said (via MLB.com). "There's a lot of things that happen, whether it be a rehab assignment or something. Getting through those starts obviously matters, and that'll determine how I'm back here, too. I'd love to sit here and give you an answer on when I'm going to be back, because I want that same answer. I don't have it, but hopefully sooner rather than later."
Skubal made his last start on April 29 and the Tigers are 5-12 since. They've lost 11 of their last 13 games while being outscored 69-32. The Tigers miss Skubal, absolutely, but this slump extends beyond his absence. They've scored more than three runs only three times in those last 13 games, and that was two games with four runs and one game with six runs.
The Tigers are short on power (23rd in home runs), the bullpen has been a bit leaky, and they have 12 other players on the injured list in addition to Skubal. Among them are Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Gleyber Torres, and Justin Verlander. The Tigers are a three-man army on offense (Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle) with a patchwork pitching staff.
And yet, even with a 20-28 record and a -19 run differential, Detroit sits only 2 ½ games out of a wild-card spot in the extremely watered-down American League. It's a two-game deficit in the loss column with 114 games to play. That's nothing. Though perhaps the more important number is 65? That's the number of games the Tigers have between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Skubal's trade outlook
Skubal will be a free agent after the season, and my sense is the Tigers will have to crash hard in these next 65 games to entertain trading him at the deadline. If they're still 2 ½ games back on Aug. 3, I think they keep him, add to the roster around him, and make a push for a postseason spot. I don't know that for certain. That's just what I would expect to happen.
Assuming he returns from surgery without a hitch, Skubal would instantly become the best available pitcher and the best available player period at the trade deadline if the Tigers do put him on the market. Every contender -- Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, etc. -- would make a run at him. The bidding war would be fierce.
The trade deadline is still two months away, though, and a lot can and will change between now and that. The Tigers will hope that change comes in the standings, and they start stacking wins soon so they are in better position to make a run when Skubal does return. And if they're not, they might be forced to make an uncomfortable deadline decision come Aug. 3.
"At the quarter point, they don't crown division champions," Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said over the weekend (via MLB.com). "They also shouldn't eliminate teams. I mean, we've learned lesson after lesson over the years that it's a moment in time for everybody to jump to a conclusion that's probably irrelevant. And when you're on this side of it, you definitely want to believe that."
