MLB Rookie of the Year predictions for 2026: Best bets and longshots for AL and NL awards

Betting on MLB's Rookie of the Year awards can be a bit of a bumpy ride. Sometimes the presumptive favorites blow away the rest of the field, as Paul Skenes did in 2024. Sometimes a player comes out of nowhere to claim the hardware, as Luis Gil did that same year. 

So what sort of approach should bettors take? Should we value pedigree? A path to playing time? Both? The answer is somewhere in the middle, and even then, sometimes even the best prospects are merely fine, and not outstanding, upon their arrival in the big leagues. Just look at Bobby Witt Jr.'s rookie season, for example. It's a bit of a crapshoot, but I've tried my best to identify where the value lies on the Rookie of the Year odds board. 

All odds are from DraftKings.

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AL best bet: Carter Jensen (+550)

Catchers don't win this award often (Atlanta's Drake Baldwin last year notwithstanding), in part due to the rigors of the position and the challenges young players can face in managing a pitching staff. Focusing on the defensive side of a player's game can eat away at their offense. 

That being said, Carter Jensen burst onto the scene in his brief cameo last year and has long had a pedigree for offensive dynamism. With franchise mainstay Salvador Perez entering his age 36 season, the Royals could benefit from moving Perez to more DH work and letting Jensen settle in behind the dish. A full season's worth of plate appearances could produce some eye-popping numbers from the young backstop and add yet another dynamic bat to an ascendant Royals lineup that already features Witt, Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino. 

NL best bet: JJ Wetherholt (+500)

One of the most exciting infield prospects in the game, JJ Wetherholt should get plenty of time to prove himself as the everyday second baseman for the Cardinals. The former West Virginia star has done nothing but rake in the minor leagues. St. Louis signaled its commitment to him playing every day in the show when Brendan Donovan was traded to Seattle, meaning that even if he struggles out of the gate, the Cardinals will give Wetherholt time to work his way through trouble. The pedigree and talent is undeniable. 

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AL longshot: Travis Bazzana (+2000)

The first overall pick in the 2024 draft, Travis Bazzana should be the long-term solution at second base for the Guardians. He showed what he's capable of as the leadoff hitter for Australia in the World Baseball Classic, where he brought a high-energy presence to the top of the lineup. There's high OBP, good power profile here that may leave something to be desired in the batting average. After dealing with some oblique issues in the minors, a clean bill of health may actually help Bazzana elevate his stock more and outperform expectations when he arrives in Cleveland. A well-rounded player without a carrying standout trait isn't the sexiest pick for Rookie of the Year, but more and more of the voting body is looking at which player leads the WAR table on FanGraphs when they go to fill out their ballots. Well-rounded may very well get the job done.

NL longshot: Carson Benge (+2000)

I'm a bit surprised that the odds are so generous here, but everyone ahead of Carson Benge on the odds board has all but assured routes to playing time from Opening Day on. Benge's immediate future is a bit murkier. But he has a few things going for him -- the Mets essentially didn't sign a third full-time outfielder with an eye toward Benge seizing the job, and he hasn't been sent to minor league camp just yet because he's hit a comical .406/.472/.500 thus far. 

Spring Training stats usually aren't predictive in the long run, and anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know ball. But gaudy numbers like the ones Benge has produced thus far do help players win Opening Day jobs, and the ceiling for Benge is much, much higher than what Tyrone Taylor can offer, with all due respect. If it all comes together in a hurry, Benge could give the Mets a true five-tool weapon and another big bat in a lineup that just got a major injection of star power. There's a version of the 2026 season in which Benge is one of the four best hitters in Queens.

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AL fade: Munetaka Murakami (+750)

Baseball sickos have been looking forward to the Munetaka Murakami's stateside debut for a while now -- though they looked forward to it a lot more before the Japanese slugger's contact issues became more and more glaring as the years progressed. The light-tower power here is undeniable, but questionable contact rates in Japan only cause worry about what he'll be capable of against MLB pitching. Murakami was initially expected to get a monster MLB deal when he first broke out in Japan. Instead, he had to settle for a two-year deal with the White Sox, one of the worst teams in the league. He'll also be moving to first base, as he's simply not good enough at third to make it work in MLB. Playing on the South Side will mean he'll have every chance to figure it out, but I'm out on Murakami until he proves me wrong.

NL fade: Konnor Griffin (+200)

Let me be as clear as possible -- Konnor Griffin is going to be good. He'll likely end up being really, really good. This is one of the most exciting prospects in recent memory. He will likely end up making multiple All-Star teams and provide the sort of offensive hope that Pirates fans haven't enjoyed since Andrew McCutchen's peak. If Pittsburgh ever becomes anything more than a punchline, it will be because of a team led by Griffin and Skenes. 

Is that going to happen right away? Sure, it could. But we're doing a betting exercise, and if we're putting money on this prop, Griffin just isn't the most attractive option. Wetherholt will all but surely get the second base job right away, while it remains unclear whether Griffin will head north with the Pirates. There's also going to be pressure on Griffin to provide immediate impact after Pittsburgh actually added a few bats over the winter, while the Cardinals are explicitly rebuilding and won't be looking to Wetherholt to spark an unlikely playoff run.

Would it surprise me if Griffin won? Not in the slightest. But Wetherholt simply presents more upside from a betting standpoint.