NBA picks: Alperen Sengun is a main piece for our Heat-Rockets same-game parlay for Saturday, March 21
We have a three-leg same-game parlay for Heat vs. Rockets as Houston comes off ending Atlanta's long win streak
The Houston Rockets are riding high after ending the Atlanta Hawks' win streak Friday night, and now they host the Miami Heat on Saturday. The Rockets (42-27) got 25 points from Kevin Durant and 15 points and 10 assists from Alperen Sengun in their 117-95 rout of the Hawks, who came in on an 11-game win streak. The Heat (38-32) come into Houston on a three-game losing skid after losing 134-126 to the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday.
The Rockets are without Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, both done for the season, and Durant could be limited on a back-to-back, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Andrew Wiggins are out for Miami. We've built a three-leg same-game parlay for Heat vs. Rockets with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and recommendations from SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered Week 22 on a sizzling 42-20 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Heat vs. Rockets same-game parlay picks
- Rockets money line
- Under 229.5
- Alperen Sengun Under 19.5 Total Points -121 (Prop Bet Guy)
Rockets money line
Houston is 24-10 on its home floor, and the SportsLine model gives a rare "A" grade to the Rockets money-line play. They are winning in 73% of the model's simulations and covering as 2.5-point favorites 69% of the time. The Heat are 15-19 away from home and have been one of the streakiest teams in the league. They won seven in row before their current slide, but the model sees the rough road continuing Saturday.
Under 229.5
The Heat have been allowing a lot of points lately, but Houston is 29-40 to the Over and has the fourth-best defense in the NBA. The Rockets allow 109 points per game and are in the top seven in the league in opponent field-goal percentage (45.8) and three-point FG percentage (34.9). They also score just 114.3 per contest (21st). The total has gone Under in 16 of Houston's last 20 home games ,and the model has the Under hitting 57.6% of the time, good for a "B" grade.
Alperen Sengun Under 19.5 Total Points
Sengun is averaging 20.2 points per game, but SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy points out that he is averaging 18.3 since the calendar turned to 2026. The expert expects the big man to have trouble against Miami's Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware and points out that the Heat allow the 11th-fewest points to opposing centers. Sengun has gone Over this number just three times in his past 10 games.
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