It's on to Week 5 in the 2026 NFL season, and rivalry games take center stage all across the league this weekend. Ahead of the Week 5 schedule, which consists of 15 games, we'll take a look at the best point spread betting picks available using the help of the SportsLine Projection Model. All odds are from DraftKings. Use the latest DraftKings promo code to wager on NFL games and get $150 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
NFL Week 5 best ATS bets
Colts +2.5 vs. Steelers (-105)
Indianapolis snapped a nine-game losing streak in Week 3 against the Texans, then promptly went across the pond and dominated the Commanders 30-13 for a two-game winning streak. Despite a litany of injuries at receiver, the Colts continue to hum along thanks to running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor scored two touchdowns on Sunday, giving him six on the season. The Steelers are coming into this game with extra rest after playing on Thursday, but their defense has looked out of sorts over the last two contests. Indianapolis covers the spread in 57% of SportsLine simulations.
Packers +3 vs. Bears (-118)
The NFL's most storied rivalry continues at Lambeau Field in Week 5. The Packers and Bears both got wins in Week 4, with Green Bay going down to Tampa Bay and taking out the Bucs while the Bears powered past the Jets. Chicago will not get Caleb Williams back for this game, but the Bears have shown they can move the ball well regardless of who is at quarterback. Tyson Bagent is going to get the start. Green Bay is without Edgerrin Cooper for the rest of the season, and Micah Parsons doesn't seem like he's close to returning yet. Despite these injuries, the SportsLine model has the Packers covering the spread in 51% of simulations.
Seahawks -2.5 vs. 49ers (-120)
Injuries haven't slowed down San Francisco, as the 49ers are 4-0 behind Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Co. The Seahawks bounced back from a Week 3 loss with a victory at home over the Chargers. They're staying at Lumen Field for this game and even though San Francisco has shown resiliency, the SportsLine model likes the Seahawks to cover a 3-point consensus spread in 61% of simulations.
