So much for starting October the right way.

My picks stunk last week. I was OK straight up, going 9-7, but the late-game shenanigans cost me a chance at a decent week against the spread. I went 4-11-1 ATS last week as many back-door covers got me.

My straight-up record for the season is 38-26-0 and my ATS record is a dismal 25-37-2. How can I be that bad?

No time for sulking. It's time to turn it around and this week I think I have a chance to move closer to .500 for the season. Then we can build on things from there.

Let's go.

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

  • Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime

The Bucs are 0-4 and playing a rookie at quarterback in Jalon Daniels. He will be making his first road start. On a Thursday night? That's tough. The Cowboys are coming off a big win at Houston and the offense was dynamic. Dak Prescott keeps it going in this one. 

Pick: Cowboys 34, Bucs 14

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

  • London on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Eagles are so banged up and coming off a tough loss to the Rams. Then, right tackle Lane Johnson retired on Tuesday. They have so many key players out, which has to help the Jaguars. The Jaguars are second in scoring defense and have stopped the run all year long. They will limit the Eagles' offense in this one. The Jaguars go to 4-1. 

Pick: Jaguars 28, Eagles 16

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (+3)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

These two don't like each other. The Bears have been great running the ball, but this could be the game where playing without Caleb Williams shows up. Look for Jordan Love to have a big day throwing it on the other side — finally. The Packers win it in an upset. 

Pick: Packers 27, Bears 24

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7)

Both of these teams are 0-4, which is surprising when it comes to the Texans. The Titans have played a lot of close games, which they will again here. But C.J. Stroud will make the plays late to win this one. 

Pick: Texans 23, Titans 17

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) at Miami Dolphins 

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Bengals are hurting at receiver with both Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase suffering injuries last week against the Jaguars. But there is a chance they can play. Even if they don't, the Bengals will move the football. Miami plays hard, but they are undermanned. 

Pick: Bengals 23, Dolphins 13

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3.5)

This is a long trip for the Raiders, coming off a tough division loss. The Patriots seemed to right things against the Bills, which meant Drake Maye came alive. Look for that to continue here as the Patriots get to 3-2. 

Pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 24

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Saints looked awful in their loss to the Falcons on Monday night and now face an undefeated Vikings team. That Minnesota defense is special. The Saints are really banged up on defense. Maybe Kyler Murray can get it going against them. I think he does. 

Pick: Vikings 24, Saints 17

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5)

The Browns are 3-1 and have won three straight, while the Jets have lost three straight. But they are back home after two on the road. That matters. Look for a better showing here from their offense as they upset the Browns. 

Pick: Jets 20, Browns 16

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

The Colts have won two straight as they head to face the Steelers on the road after beating the Commanders in London last week. That's a tough turnaround, while the Steelers have extra days of rest. That matters. The Steelers will get back on track with a victory led by Aaron Rodgers. 

Pick: Steelers 33, Colts 23

New York Giants (+3) at Washington Commanders 

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

There is a chance Jayden Daniels will play for the Commanders. That's the good news. But he will be wearing a brace on his elbow. How much will it restrict him? The Giants are 3-1, but this is a big road test. I think they will be up to it. Give me Jameis Winston playing well as the Giants get to 4-1. 

Pick: Giants 26, Commanders 24

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)

The Broncos are playing consecutive road games after losing at San Francisco last week. The Chargers haven't won. They will here. Desperation will be in play for the Chargers. The Broncos have offensive issues right now that will show up. Look for Los Angeles to quiet the critics for a week.

Pick: Chargers 23, Broncos 17

Detroit Lions (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals 

  • Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Lions are playing on the road off a Sunday night loss. They can't stop anybody on defense. But the Cardinals have some defensive issues as well. Look for the Lions to outscore Arizona in a shootout as Jared Goff puts up big numbers. 

Pick: Lions 40, Cardinals 31

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

  • Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This is an enormous division game that will be a physical war, as they always are between these two. The 49ers are undefeated, but this is a tough road test. The Seahawks are the healthier team, but the 49ers have played better. The 49ers have played well in Seattle, but I think the Seattle defense will come up big late to win it. 

Pick: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

  • Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This could be a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson after he suffered an injured ankle last week. If he can't go, Tyler Huntley will start. That means this will be a Derrick Henry game. The Falcons impressed Monday night, beating up the Saints, but this is a short week and a better opponent. The Ravens will rally if Jackson doesn't play and be thrilled if he does. 

Pick: Ravens 24, Falcons 17

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This is one of the best games of the week. The Bills are coming off a tough loss to the Patriots, while the Rams rallied to beat the Eagles. Look for a lot of points in this one as Josh Allen and Matt Stafford have big games. In the end, the Rams will make the plays late to win it. 

Pick: Rams 34, Bills 33 

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